Understand and do not forgive

Western leaders confer. They are conferring about how to respond to a new round of Russian aggression, which seemed to be again unexpected for them. And, of course, the advice of all kinds of practitioners sound again - to understand Putin, to find a compromise with him, to help him keep his face.

In the political elites of the West, the idea that integration into the global world economy, together with market reforms, would automatically lead to the approval of the basic values ​​of the Western (Euro -Atlantic) civilization: the priority of human rights, the rule of law, democracy, justice, and humanism. The facts contrary to this scheme explained the difficulties of the transition period and called for patience, wait for these difficulties to be overcome by the "power of things."

When it became obvious that we are not talking about individual deviations and zigzags, but about the steady opposite direction of development, there was a temptation to rush to another extreme: to explain everything with the fundamental incompatibility of Western values ​​with “Russian civilization”, to reconcile with the fact that Russia will never accept them, and build relations with it based on this.

In fact, after the collapse of the USSR, a socio -economic system has developed in Russia, in which personal success is determined by the position in the actually feudal hierarchy, which gives access to the distribution of resources - economic, status, and power. This system is only camouflaged with decorative institutions of private property and market. Ending, the imitation nature of formally acting public institutions is its distinguishing feature. Complete profanity underwent judicial procedures, election mechanisms. This is precisely what ensures the uncontrolled, impunity and irremovability of the recktocratic elite that strengthened in power.

The very existence of much more successful and attractive societies, in which all these institutions work really, poses a threat to the undivided domination of this. With permission to say, the elite. Therefore, it is quite natural that she declared the entire western system of basic values ​​false, and its carriers - hostile to Russia. The “Western values” were opposed to the ideas of conservative critics of liberalism from the 19th century, fans of the Middle Ages and the predecessors of fascism. So the current confrontation of Russia and the West is more fundamental-ideological in nature than the confrontation of the West and the USSR. Then two modernization projects were competing. Both of them went into the general spiritual soil with roots: the humanism of the Renaissance and the rationalism of the Enlightenment. Today it is a confrontation between modernization and archaic, pure anti -mining.

The rulers of the Russian Federation are convinced that the whole world is arranged in the same way as those criminal groups of the 90s from which they came out. Therefore, they really believe that the democracy and the rule of law (including international) are only a deception that allows you to mask strongly how they impose their will weak. A humiliating defeat (the very “greatest geopolitical catastrophe”) they consider the loss of the Kremlin the opportunity to dictate their will to the peoples who fell into the orbit of the influence of the Soviet empire. And they seriously intend to fight for the return of this opportunity.

But the main thing is not in the ideas inherent in the Russian ruling elite about the world and its ambitions (called on the crime jargon in this environment "showers"). It is more important that the ability of the “thieves' economy” to provide the population at least relative material well -being due to high prices for hydrocarbons is nearing exhaustion. Under these conditions, the ideology of aggressive anti -Western, anti -liberal traditionalism planted by state propaganda is the last means of maintaining the loyalty of most society to the existing regime. Only to humiliate the eternal (and forever, as it seems to us, the Western enemy, to prove to others and first of all to ourselves that we can do this, despite all its achievements, only this super -task can justify the existence of a system based on the systematic humiliation of each individual person in the eyes of an ordinary citizen. But in order to preserve the support of the “wipe the nose of America” and “put in place of England” the crowds heated by promises, she needs to constantly demonstrate, if not victory in the fight against the “damned West”, then at least this struggle itself.

That is why Putin and his environment simply cannot abandon the state of the Cold War with the West and the policy of balancing on the verge of hot war. It is clear that such a policy is fraught with danger in this hot war to accidentally break. It is necessary to realize something else: no attempts to pay off Putin (for example, promises not to take Ukraine to NATO) will force him to abandon the destruction of the world order, at least partially based on the restriction of state violence both in his own territory and beyond. It is pointless to try to help Putin keep his face in the retreat, because he is not going to retreat.

Putin is sure that the West will always be able to retreat. To retreat in the hope that, if you give Putin the opportunity to keep his face, he will retreat. In the calculation of the fact that he will push him a desire to maintain benefits from business with the West. In an effort to maintain the benefits of business with Russia at all costs.

The whole strategy of the hybrid war is built on this confidence. A hybrid war is when the Kremlin sends troops to Ukraine, masking them (and very conditionally) under the "vacationers -volunteers" or "unidentified green men", so that the leading world powers and international structures can if they want to do not notice it or at least cannot prove it. The Kremlin’s calculation is built on the fact that Western countries will try to avoid open recognition of the direct aggression of the Russian Federation to the last.

Putin constantly repeats the same two -way: he makes an act of aggression and at the same time blackmail the world with a threat to take the next, even more dangerous step. Then he imitates readiness as a concession from this next step to resist. Everyone sighs with relief and try to encourage the “goodwill” shown by the fact that at least do not increase pressure on Russia. This allows Putin to gain a foothold on the already captured bridgehead and calmly prepare for the next act of aggression. That is how he already managed to actually freeze the annexation of Crimea for an indefinite time and the “semi -communal” part of the Donbass.

The allegations of some “pragmatists” are deeply erroneous that serious economic sanctions against the Russian Federation are harmful, as they convince the Russian population of the Western hostility and pushing it to support Putin’s anti -Western policy. At the moment, anti-Western, imperial forces in Russia are brought to the maximum possible level, there is simply nowhere to raise it. So, strengthening the sanctions, the West does not lose anything at least. On the contrary, the Western refusal to strengthen sanctions will cause only a malevolent celebration in Russia and serve as an extra argument in favor of the correctness of the aggressive course conducted by Putin. People poisoned by revanchism should face its consequences. This is the only way to cure.

Putin’s support will end very quickly when his halo of invincibility scatters when he begins to endure obvious failures. And the only way to stop him is to defeat him. And for this, it is necessary to begin to act contrary to his calculations for the readiness of the West to “show understanding”, “take into account interests”, “seeking a compromise”. To do this, you must not be afraid to realize and openly say that the challenge thrown to the world Putin, the same properties and the same degree of danger as the challenge, abandoned at one time by Hitler. That this threat can be eliminated only with Putin's regime. What if Putin’s regime in the foreseeable future is impossible, it must be isolated and weakened as much as possible and economic and economic terms.

Timely rebuff to the aggressor does not give one hundred percent guarantee from the war with him. But the policy of peacefulness of the aggressor with the help of concessions for all one hundred percent guarantees this war. Moreover, with much worst starting conditions. Proved by history. And at some point it is necessary to say: a deeper Russian military invasion of Ukraine will have a military answer. Ukraine will receive military assistance. Military equipment, instructors, satellite intelligence data. And if the existing international structures are so slow that they cannot quickly make agreed decisions, nothing prevents the acting independently to individual states. This requires only political will.

So far, Putin is not yet ready to fade with nuclear warheads in Washington and London. Do not wait for it to ripen for this. Putin never refuses the steps for which he is already ready. But he never performs actions that is not yet ready. His blackmail is always bluff. Putin is really very afraid of losing his face. He knows that this will lead to the rapid destruction of his power. Therefore, it is not necessary to help Putin keep his face. He needs to help lose his face. He needs to help break his neck.