"There is not so much default"

What happens to the economy of Ukraine: reporting Ilya Zheguleva

According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine, to avoid default, needs $ 15 billion. On Tuesday, January 27, the finance ministers of the EU member countries agreed to allocate 1.8 billion to the country; The amount of this, obviously, will not be enough to save the economy of Ukraine. The special correspondent of Medusa Ilya Zhegulev went to Kiev to understand how the country survived, which has lost 20% of GDP over the past year and is in the pre -end state - and how the local business copes with the new rules of the game.

Give the pipe to the Russians

On a clear frosty day, on December 30, 2014, armed people appeared in the village of Smyga of the Rivne region of Ukraine. The goal of the fighters of the Dnepr volunteer battalion was an inconspicuous pumping station. However, the march-cut of 900 kilometers towards the West failed: the battalions were waiting for the same people armed to the teeth in camouflage. To arrange a real war in that part of Ukraine where it cannot be by definition, the warring parties did not. Through a little flinter and quarreled, the fighters of the Dnieper retreated.

So on the eve of the New Year, the failure ended the attempt to capture (“nationalization”) of the main Ukrainian artery with oil products - Transneft's pipes to Hungary. The Russian pipe was not defended by employees of the security company and not “vacation” Russian military - assistance arrived from Ukrainian patriots. Transneft's “fighting volunteers”, without waiting for any special sanction from the Russian state -owned company, were hired by the largest local oil industry - the Ukrainian group “Continium”. In the “control points”, the oil pipeline is now guarding 800 fighters with experience in combat operations.

Ukrainian entrepreneurs are ready to protect their business with weapons in their hands - even if it directly depends on Russia: the country's economy is not in the state that we can scatter tens of millions of dollars. A business in a country that wages a war and is in a difficult economic condition is an almost extreme, but not impossible.

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The village of Smyga is located a thousand kilometers from the ATO zone; He is extremely far from war and politicians. Once this village was founded by the German Count Berg, who produced there barrels for beer and wine. Berg sold part of the territory with the forest to the partner and fellow countryman Kenna; He built a sawmill there. On the sawmill and barrels, the village of Kennenberg lasted quite a long time. In 1929, the Poles renamed Kennenberg to Smyga, under this name the village lived in Soviet times.

In the middle of the 20th century, a strategic oil product pipeline was laid directly through the meaning. The pipe coming from Russia to Eastern Europe provided the Warsaw Treaty countries with a diesel engine for military needs. After the collapse of the Union, the pipe turned into the ownership of the “daughter” “Transneft” (Russian monopolist of oil transportation) - the company “Pakkarpatzapadtrans”. However, the Ukrainian authorities decided to take it to themselves. Moreover, the decision on nationalization was made not by the Prosecutor General or the President, but by the regional court-in November 2014, the Rivne court granted the appeal of the local prosecutor's office and took the pipe from Transneft.

Ukrainian oil regulators (receiving diesel from a Russian pipe at a profitable tariff), holding their breath, are waiting for the decisions of the last instance - the highest appeal court of Ukraine: they need more the pipeline than Transneft.

Meanwhile, Transneft has already blocked the supply of petroleum products - in the summer it promised to pump out all oil from the pipe, as well as eliminate the “Carpatzapadtrans” if the pipe is nationalized. This was completely not profitable for Ukrainian traders. Representatives of Continium tried to find a compromise solution - the largest sellers of oil products that control 20% of the market (among assets - a WOG gas station and not working Kherson refinery). According to Medusa, the company top managers came to Moscow more than once, persuading Transneft not to wash out diesel from the pipe. They begged for the Ukrainian authorities not to take away the pipe from the Russians. Firstly, if water floods there, it will someday pour it, and this threatens with an environmental disaster. Secondly, and, apparently, with the main ones, with the stop of the pipe, only the “Continium” will lose $ 10 million a profit per year: through the oil pipeline, the group purchases a million tons; If the pipe stops and the diesel will have to be imported with tanks, each ton will cost 10 dollars more.

The monopoly of the Russian “Transneft” generally seems to local sellers of oil products the least evil: it will be much worse if the pipe falls into the hands of one of the competitors. Informal control over the pipe was once claimed by President Viktor Yanukovych, a businessman Sergei Kurchenko; But, as the oil register says, who wished to remain not called, in the end, Kurchenko did not work out. Under President Petro Poroshenko, new people who were interested in the oil pipeline appeared. So, sources in the market told Medusa that in the event of a pipe departure to Ukraine, it would be controlled by the entrepreneur close to the current government - the owner of the factor group Sergei Tishchenko.

The more those interested in the pipe from the authorities, the less chance of the oil industries to maintain their place in the market. Therefore, the owner of the Continium, MP Igor Yeremeyev, securing the support of the partners, Va-Bank went. Until the decision of the Supreme Court of Appeal, he will protect the pipe with weapons. If the parties do not agree and the Supreme Court decides to give the pipe to Ukraine, oil refineers will have to retreat.

Corruption publicity

A conflict of interests and corruption - constant problems of the former Ukrainian authorities; Actually, the last revolution was not least because of them. However, the situation for business in this regard has not changed much - businessmen are forced to pay officials about the same as before. But you can now fight corruption in different ways. For example, with the help of publicity.

Entrepreneur Sergei Gusovsky, tired of paying bribes, himself went to power: in the spring of 2014, he elected a deputy to the Kyiv City Duma. We meet in his huge restaurant "Shoti", which is located next to the local City-the sail business center: the restaurant managed to open one of the most expensive institutions directly in the midst of events on the Maidan.

A huge fireplace fireplace, an open kitchen, a wall, on which, in the form of a pattern, “a knight in a tiger skin” is printed on Georgian (from the first to the last line). In this restaurant, it is difficult to reflect that in the country there is a war and a pre -ending state. “The restaurant was built a year and a half - who knew what would happen at that time? I remember there was a discovery, but people ran through the streets, shot, ”says Sergey Gusovsky.

Gusovsky did not really like that the mayor’s post would most likely take Vitaly Klitschko, so he decided to participate in “Changing the City” on his own. The deputy group “Self -help”, which includes the businessman, is just engaged in the fight against corruption: “Do not win, so to light as much as possible,” Gusovsky explains, bearing in mind the possibilities of free media. However, according to him, after Petro Poroshenko announced a moratorium on any business checks by regulatory agencies, inspections, and so became tangibly less.

The main achievement of the new government is an attempt to develop the same rules for everyone. The head of one of the main mobile operators in Ukraine Kyivstar Pyotr Chernyshov is barely noticeably hiding the glee: “Today our company has applied for participation in the auction 3G! - solemnly says Chernyshov. - I report this to you the first. If there was a Ukrainian journalist in your place, he would immediately ran somewhere to call. ” The development of the 3G network is the most relevant issue in Ukraine. Prior to the change of power, none of the main operators were allowed to the license competition, the only license for 3G was possessed by Trimb, owned by Rinat Akhmetov, which was close to Yanukovych. Now, Kyivstar and MTS are allowed to the competition. “If the auction passes, it will be a great victory for the new government,” says Chernyshov, who could not even dream of this before. At the same time, the holding with the Russian participation of Vimpelcom with the new government began to feel better - they began to let it into transparent competitions.

But for other cases, an instrument called freedom of speech is displayed. In August 2014, the Good Wine chain of stores addressed the president and prime minister with an open letter, accusing the SBU of corruption. The Security Service of Ukraine included the company in the list of sanctions - for the fact that three years ago it sent excise stamps not directly to manufacturers, but a logistics company - and allegedly did not pay an excise tax. Retailers were perplexed: the tax is paid when buying excise stamps, and not when sending them.

According to Medusa, the co -owner of the network Vladimir Shapovalov, thanks to the media, it was possible to solve the problem without paying a hryvnia in the form of bribes to SBU officers, who had previously offered to "resolve issues on the spot." “The authorities began to react to such things, we must pay tribute to them,” the entrepreneur argues. According to Shapovalov, corruption in Ukraine, in general, has become less, although this cannot be called qualitative changes. “Under the previous government, we would not talk about the facts of corruption out loud. Now we allowed ourselves to say this, ”says Shapovalov.

Not so lucky, a businessman’s colleague from Odessa was not so. The founder and owner of the most noticeable restaurants in Odessa, Savva Libkin, is hardly restrained if, when meeting with him, the word “waterocanal”. While in the Donbass they fought for a single Ukraine, Libkin had to dive with officials. “Two people are refuel there: this is Igor Lysenko, the head of the Infoxwodokanal, and Kirill Shvets is the head of the department for monitoring water use, smaller,” Libkin complains. “Their“ sixes ”come with some acts, instructions, attempts at fines, there were already twenty pieces.” As Libkin says, he did not want to pay bribes, but the inspectors did not lag behind. His restaurants even turned off the water a couple of times - for half a day. He also complained to the governor, but the new governor of the Odessa region Igor Palitsa could not help him - Vodokanal is not subordinate to the region.

The club himself is called the person of Igor Kolomoisky, the most influential governor in the country, heading the Dnipropetrovsk region and included in the three richest people of the country. In his estate, Kolomoisky is in order: his deputy Gennady Korban stands on guard of corruption. All noticeable entrepreneurs of the region have its personal mobile. “Korban says to me: if there are any cases, you will definitely call me right away, we will press them,” says Medusa Ruslan Shostak, co-owner of the Ukrainian product network Varus (headquarters in Dnepropetrovsk). There are practically no “cases”, Shostak admits: “manual system” works. The deputy governor himself easily tells reporters how he lifts with an automaton in his hands on the occasion of the walls of the police. At the same time, the Dnepr-1 and Dnipro-2 battalions, financed personally by the Governor of Kolomoisky and put things in order on the territory of the ATO, are now often used as a shock force to solve the disputes of business entities-this is how the governor “helps the state”. True, the situation in different regions is completely different - and in general the system has not changed, Shostak concludes.

Expans against the system

“The money is still taken. They are afraid and take it, ”the richest (according to Forbes) Radier Garik Korogodsky sums up in a conversation with me in a conversation with me. During this year, he did not build anything, but only examined - the economic situation clearly does not contribute to investment in developing. According to him, quite a lot of young officials appeared in the power who want to do something, but the “system” does not give them. “The system resists, it is old,” Korogodsky shrugs his hands.

Businessmen expect radical changes from the new President Petro Poroshenko. However, at first there was a presidential campaign, then a military operation in the east, and then parliamentary elections. The latter generally came out of the bad luck: the prime minister competed with the president, and his bloc suddenly gained a lot of votes. So a couple more months went to the battle for portfolios - the prime minister and the president could not agree on the coalition government and came to consensus only in November - and then under the pressure of the IMF.

At the same time, not all new officials, in principle, feel that they are expected from them. So, the new chief customs officer of Ukraine Anatoly Makarenko soon after his appointment admitted that he divides his subordinates-bribe takers into two categories: those who take them and those that are pulled. “I take those who take it relatively calmly ... I will destroy those who are tearing it,” the head of the customs service promised .

So that the heads of departments have the right priorities, the National Anti -Corruption Bureau is created in Ukraine. How influential this department will be, depends on who leads it. The government makes a large bet on this bureau - so that the manager’s election procedure seems even more complicated than the premiere elections: a special commission has been created, which will be considered by candidates within a month, the winner will be called only in February. According to rumors, the former President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili can take this chair.

The fact that the government plans to attract a foreigner to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, in November 2014, Poroshenko himself declared. Since foreigners under the law cannot yet occupy posts in the government, Ukrainian citizenship is given explosion in an accelerated manner.

The first foreigners in the government appeared in December 2014. The Minister of Health became a native of Saakashvili’s office Alexander Kvitashvili (once received an education in America, and then headed a similar department under the former Georgian president for a couple of years), US citizen Natalie Yaresko, and the Ministry of Economic Development was headed by an entrepreneur from Lithuania Aivaras Abomavichus. Yaresko in the 1990s managed to work at the US State Department of the State Department, spent the last 20 years in Ukraine. Abromavichus headed two investment funds - East Capital Russian Fund and East Capital Eastern European Fund, which, according to the results of five years, showed minus income. One thing unites ministers: they have never worked in the system of Ukrainian authorities.

At a special press conference, the Minister of Justice of Ukraine Pavel Petrenko built four expanses-the future of his subordinates and former Georgian officials. While he represents them, Georgians are standing and modestly silent: no one understands Ukrainian from them.

A candidate for the post of head of the State Registration Service, Jab Ebanoidze, has not even learned his local telephone number. In Ukraine, Jaba is less than a week, but already understands how to simplify the real estate registration procedure here: the experience of reforming the system he took place in Georgia. In Georgia, as in many European countries, all information about real estate can be found without leaving home - via the Internet; Journalists use this with might and main, bringing Georgian officials to the pure water. “We are not going to copy the Georgian model,” explains Ebanoidze. “We just have some accumulated experience that can be useful in Ukraine.”

As soon as he took the post of minister, Aivaras Abromavichus promised to disband the economic department. When I reminded him of this, he smiled and hinted that he got excited. But he seriously reduces the apparatus and has already fired the main old -timer of the government - his deputy Valery Pyatnitsky, who has been working in the government since the President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma. Abromavichus first wanted to reduce the device by 20%, and then by 30%. At the same time, his main task is much more complicated: he should cut off expenses at the national level and carry out unpopular reforms of the pension system and state oil and gas monopolies, reducing their energy subsidies.

Budget bottom

The current problems of the Ukrainian economy are connected not only and not so much with the war. Over the years of populism, the level of state expenses in the Ukrainian economy overtook the Russian indicator - and reached 53% of GDP. And now - in connection with the situation in the eastern regions of Ukraine - state expenses will grow even more.

The Ukrainian government diligently increases state expenses since President Viktor Yushchenko, who, during his election campaign, has promised to increase payments for the birth of a child by 12 times. He fulfilled the promise - since then each next president has only increased these payments. Тысячи гривен на первого, второго и третьего ребенка никак не помогли изменить демографическую проблему: население страны ежегодно сокращается на 500 тысяч человек. Однако бюджет «перегрузили» — только на эту льготу уходит 40 миллиардов гривен — 10% бюджета страны», — рассказывает исполнительный директор Центра социально-экономических исследований Case Дмитрий Боярчук. «Электорат верит в то, что бюджет — это халява», — добавляет он.

За прошедший год страна пережила три этапа девальвации. Резервы начали катастрофически падать еще в мае 2013 года, отчасти поэтому Янукович склонился к Таможенному союзу: Путин сразу предлагал реальные деньги, а Запад за подписание соглашения ассоциации с Евросоюзом моментальных денег не обещал. Но гривну все равно пришлось ронять. Следующий скачок случился уже из-за потерь в связи с присоединением Крыма к России, в том числе из-за невозвратных кредитов украинских банков.

А последнее падение произошло из-за Донбасса. «В августе надо было закрывать организовавшиеся дыры в бюджете, и включили станок. До августа напечатали 30 миллиардов гривен, а после — еще 140 миллиардов», — рассказывает экономист Боярчук. «Помогло» и население, которое в панике вынесло из банков девять миллиардов долларов валютных депозитов — треть всей валюты в стране. «Как возвращают валюту? Приходит клиент в банке и говорит: верните мне 10 тысяч долларов. Банк идет в нацбанк, нацбанк печатает гривну, гривна идет на межбанк, валюта покупается, курс летит, клиенту возвращаются его 10 тысяч долларов». По оценкам Боярчука, именно таким способом напечатали еще около 100 миллиардов гривен.

В итоге страна ограничила покупку валюты населением — не больше 222 долларов в одни руки в сутки. Однако экономика не замерла. Казалось бы: любой бизнес, которому ежедневно нужна валюта, должен был встать. Но предприниматели нашли, как решить эту проблему. Например, одному крупному нефтетрейдеру для расчетов за нефть нужно приобретать примерно восемь миллионов долларов ежедневно. Какие-то деньги приобретаются на черном рынке; хотя чаще всего тот, кому нужны доллары, сам ищет такой же бизнес, который их ежедневно получает. Нефтрейдеры договариваются с агрокомпаниями, зарабатывающими валютную выручку на зерне, и меняют у них гривны на доллары, раскрывает схему «Медузе» глава одной трейдерской компании. Правда, курс получается другой. По словам предпринимателя Руслана Шостака, если по стране курс — 16 гривен за доллар, то реальный курс, по которому можно получить достаточное количество валюты, — это 19,5 гривен за доллар. Именно по такому курсу и проходят все сделки на рынке.

Несмотря на предпринятые меры, страна продолжала тратить деньги с катастрофической скоростью: сейчас валютных резервов осталось крайне мало — семь миллиардов долларов. Над страной нависла угроза дефолта. Эксперт института Катона в Вашингтоне и бывший советник по экономике Владимира Путина Андрей Илларионов предупреждает , что к февралю дефолт станет уже практически неизбежным. О том, что мировые рынки готовятся к дефолту Украины, говорил недавно и Джордж Сорос. По словам Сороса, без помощи Запада Украина с долговой нагрузкой не справится.

Экономист Боярчук, напротив, считает, что с долговыми обязательствами страна может справиться. Основной долг Украины — три миллиарда долларов — за облигации, которые Владимир Путин передал Януковичу почти перед самым его побегом. «Еще 500 миллионов долларов еврооблигаций, 600 миллионов евро других облигаций и около одного миллиарда нынешнего долга по МВФ. Дефолтить не так уж много».

При этом самый тяжелый в моральном отношении долг — перед Россией, но, по мнению Боярчука, Европа не позволит Украине попасть в ловушку именно из-за этих денег; при условии, что страна будет проводить экономические реформы. Помощь придет, но бюджет все равно придется резать. «Основная проблема в том, что он нереалистичен, — рассуждает Боярчук. — Доходная планка завышена на 30-40 миллиардов. Они говорят: мол, мы увеличим налоги, у нас все будет в шоколаде. Это не работает в падающей экономике. Если вы не зарабатываете, налоги платить не будете. Но даже в этой нереальной базе запланировали достаточно большой дефицит».

Ощутимые потери несет Украина по доходам от экспорта с Россией, но даже они не выглядят критичными. На Россию приходилось 25% товарного экспорта, на конец этого года цифра сократилась до 17%. «Мы ожидаем, что до конца следующего года — это 10%. Меньше десяти не будет, потому что, например, Турция в нашем экспорте занимает 6%», — заключает оптимист Боярчук.

Фиолетовая революция

Из-за войны на Украине появились беженцы. Но значительную часть финансовой нагрузки по ним берут на себя волонтеры и благотворительные организации. Более того, некоторые беженцы даже помогают экономике. У Николая Алейникова в Луганске был один из самых больших ресторанов в городе — «Па, de Прованс»; расположенный в исторической части города, с французским интерьером, на 500 квадратных метров. С началом войны этому бизнесу пришел конец. Алейничев успел вывезти все оборудование, затем ресторан сгорел — ночью в него попал снаряд.

В итоге предприниматель переехал в Киев, где открыл гастропаб «Ложки» на Бассейной улице, вложив в него, по данным «Медузы», около 350 тысяч долларов. Как рассказывает местная жительница, художник Ольга Андронова, на это место долго никто не приходил — слишком дорогая аренда (50 долларов за квадратный метр в месяц). Алейникову было нечего терять, и поэтому он решил рискнуть. Теперь в пятницу вечером здесь не найти свободного столика — притом что большинство клиентов знают, что весь персонал состоит из переселенцев из Луганска (нанимать земляков, чтобы им помогать — железное правило Алейникова). По его словам, он не жалеет о вложениях: гастропаб окупается.

Самая заметная в экономическом отношении потеря, связанная с идущей войной, — падение экспорта. Несмотря на то, что вместе Крым, Донецкая и Луганская области составляют около 19% ВВП страны, по доходной части бюджета от сбора налогов страна отстала всего на 7%. Крым всегда был дотационным, как и Донбасс. «По уровню ВВП, по уровню НДС получается много, но при этом НДС экспортерам возвращался назад, — объясняет Боярчук. — В итоге чистая субсидия на эти регионы была от 30 до 40 миллиардов бюджета [ежегодно]».

Что касается, собственно, военных расходов, то за год бюджет только одного Минобороны увеличился с семи до 20 миллиардов, а на следующий год запланированы 60 миллиардов (то есть сейчас на войну тратят в полтора раза больше, чем на выплаты за рождение ребенка). В нынешней Верховной раде — много командиров батальонов и военных начальников, другой бюджет и не прошел бы, разводит руками экономист Боярчук. Хотя, по его словам, столько денег на войну и не понадобится.

Экономить бюджетные деньги в части военных расходов недавно призвали Нелли Стельмах, которая кажется совершенным инопланетянином в Минобороны. Мы встречаемся на окраине города, возле военной части, обнесенной колючей проволокой. Ворота открываются — из них выезжает красная букашка Peugeot 107 с аэрографией на «фюзеляже» в виде цветочков.

Глава тендерного комитета Минобороны Украины Нелли Стельмах чиновником стала совсем недавно. Сначала она помогала на добровольных началах Юрию Бирюкову — активному участнику «Евромайдана», во время войны организовавшему волонтерскую организацию «Крылья Феникса» (собирает деньги для бойцов АТО). Когда Бирюков разместил в фейсбуке объявление о строительстве здания штаба для одной из военных частей, Нелли объяснила ему в комментариях, как это сделать лучшие и дешевле — и по каким технологиям. Инженер Стельмах в это время занималась проектом по достройке хранилища отработанного ядерного топлива, так что была знакома со многими технологиями строительства. Бирюков в итоге уговорил Нелли Стельмах помочь с организацией тендера. Здание построили за два месяца, а когда Бирюков стал советником президента, он предложил некоторым волонтерам поработать в Министерстве обороны.

Сквозь линзы очков Нелли долго присматривается ко мне — и в конце концов выдает военную тайну: в ее ведомстве большинству людей до всего «фиолетово»: «Там из 60 человек реально работающих 15-16».

Пока Нелли и волонтерам удаются «точечные победы»: например, когда пришла канадская гуманитарная помощь, Минобороны собиралась развозить ее своей экспедиторской компанией за 400 тысяч гривен, но волонтеры нашли другую — за 70 тысяч. На днях Нелли Стельмах пришлось изучать рынок топлива: нужно было продлять договоры с трейдерами на нефтепродукты на 20% годового объема. «Я попросила друзей, мне организовали встречу с ведущими аналитиками на рынке бензина. Многие вещи я знала — то, что касается процедуры закупок; а то, что касается нефтепродуктов, — этого я не знала. Но мне провели мастер-класс, и теперь я спокойно разговаривала с нефтетрейдерами на их языке». В итоге только на нефтепродуктах удалось сэкономить 3,2 миллиона гривен.

В Минобороны Нелли Стельмах только осваивается, но система уже изо всех сил сопротивляется. «Я не могу никого уволить, законодательство кривое, поэтому, чтобы уволить, проще всего ликвидировать департамент», — разводит руками Нелли.

И ей, и многим другим участвовавшим в свержении прежней власти, а теперь пытающимся справиться с экономическим кризисом, кажется, что настоящий Майдан — впереди. Ломать придется многое, а система сопротивляется активнее бойцов «Беркута». Впрочем, в нынешних обстоятельствах других вариантов у страны уже нет.