Ukraine is counting on the IMF

Does Ukraine face financial default?

The United States can be allocated this year to Ukraine, the economy of which, due to the conflict in the Donbass, is undergoing a serious crisis, $ 3 billion, and the International Monetary Fund prepared a new lending program for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Minister of Finance Natalya Yaresko and a visit to Kiev, Minister of Finance of the United States Jacob Joseph Lew on Wednesday, January 28, signed a declaration on the provision of the United States of credit guarantees to Ukraine this year $ 2 billion. But as Jacob Joseph Lew said at a briefing, the total amount of American financial assistance to Ukraine can be increased:

Since we are in alliance with very rich countries against not very rich Russia, I think that we will receive the necessary finances, unlike the weapon now we need

“We will also invite our Congress to allocate an additional one billion dollars. As a result, credit guarantees will amount to three billion dollars, but only if the Ukrainian government will carry out reforms agreed with the International Monetary Fund. Our assistance will be aimed at financing social programs and protecting low -income citizens. We expect primarily eagerness of corruption, reform energy sector and improving the business climate. ”

In addition to the United States, this year financial assistance to Ukraine is promised to provide the European Union, Germany, Japan and Poland. In February, as part of a new expanded lending program, Ukraine can receive the first tranche from the IMF.

According to the Blayser Foundation , Ukraine’s needs for external financing in 2015 will amount to at least $ 25 billion. At the same time, the head of the Kiev Center for Economic Development , Alexander Pashaver, believes that Ukraine needs twice as much - $ 50 billion.

“Ukraine needs money for different things. Based on the game of forces, I think that this money will be provided to Ukraine. We are not even an object, but the subject of the game is strong, and these are very rich. Ukraine needs money for war, and for reforms, and operational activities. And since we are in alliance with very wealthy countries against not very rich Russia, I think that we will receive the necessary finances, unlike the weapons now,” Alexander expected Alexander now. Easter.

Continuing the military conflict in the Donbass, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as noted in Kyiv, obviously expects that the Ukrainian economy will collapse earlier than the Russian. Does Ukraine threaten Ukraine? According to Oleg Utenko , the Executive Director of the Bleyzer Foundation, we must proceed from the fact that Ukraine needs this year at $ 25 billion of external financing:

- What is this figure made of? On the one hand, Ukraine should be calculated on its external debts. The total amount this year is about 10 billion dollars, about 4 billion is a shortage of account of current operations, which is a derivative of trade deficit. Ukraine, unfortunately, exports too little and import too much. Another $ 12 billion - debts on external loans of the Ukrainian private sector, that is, banks, corporations, etc. Thus, out of 25 billion that Ukraine must find this year, we can consider the issue with $ 7-8 billion. The rest of the money Ukraine should try to find somewhere, and it is obvious that in the International Monetary Fund. According to the current program, the STAND-By Ukraine IMF during 2015 should receive no more than $ 12 billion. And there was a question, but where to find the missing 5-6 billion. And I think that Ukraine can receive this money from the International Monetary Fund. This, of course, will not relieve the tension and severity of the situation for the country, which is actually in a state of military operations in the East, and this will not remove an additional load that may arise in the state budget, because the budget is scarce. Nevertheless, I do not see the risks of default in this situation, at least on state debts. Moreover, I can assume that the Ukrainian side, even if the entire necessary amount is promised by Western creditors, will still parallel to initiate negotiations on the possibility of restructuring Ukrainian external debt. At least the debt that is issued in the form of Eurobonds, and on the foreign market there are now about $ 17.5 billion of Ukrainian external obligations. If it is possible to achieve progress here, and there are expectations that it can be achieved, then the needs of financing will decrease and part of the money from international creditors will be aimed at covering the state budget deficit, ”said Oleg Ustenko, Executive Director of the Blayser International Foundation.