Translated material
Plans and realities
The country does not have a budget, but a government draft anti-crisis measures presented last Friday, January 30, the first deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov at a plenary meeting of the State Duma, appeared.
The New Times Economic Observer reads the text of the project 
“We have no rainbow ideas, there are no illusions either,” the first deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov told his annoyed listeners, presenting the so-called “plan of priority measures to ensure sustainable development of economics and social stability in 2015 on Friday in the State Duma.”
The debate took place in a heavy atmosphere. This was the special case when the lower house assesses the situation adequately. “Something in the feathers” issued by the government for the anti -crisis program does not promise any political points to the deputy corps.
The plan even in its expenditure, by determining the claims for pure specifics, is half the declarative positions, on which financing is not spelled out. After all, the government does not have an economic forecast for 2015, it is only composed. Obviously, in such a situation, there can be nothing more than a list of intentions of individual departments and a list of lobbying orders.
The budget of the 17th and winter of the 15th does not mean that there is no idealism. By 2017, it is promised to reduce the budget without deficit and overcome inflation. These are the dreams of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.
The hole in the budget intends to darn by reducing budget expenses (except for military and social) by 10 % and their subsequent reductions by another 5 % annually. There is no oil price forecast in the “plan”, but the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov says that he is ready to make ends meet even at $ 70 per barrel - however, if military expenses are also cut from at least 2016.
However, Sergei Shoigu assured the College of the Ministry of Defense on the same Friday that the state arms program, calculated before 2020, "will be implemented in full."
About the same picture with the anti -inflation struggle that Elvira Nabiullina brought to her banners. True, those for a year and a half that it leads the Central Bank, prices are rising sharply: for the January alone this year - about 2.5 %.
Despite this, all on the same Friday January 30, the Central Bank reduced the key rate from 17 % to 15 %. The rate should approximately correspond to annual inflation. There are no signs that the increase in prices this year will be 15 %. But there is a growing pressure of creditwriters. So anti -inflationary philosophy had to be sacrificed again. And it is felt that before the onset of the Blessed of 2017, this will be done more than once.
But back to the anti -crisis plan. If, as a source of information about future decisions of the authorities, it is not suitable, then it allows you to see its beneficial recipients and victims.
The beneficiaries of about 2.3 trillion rubles prescribed in the plan. expenses (including 1 trillion rubles allocated back in 2014), two-thirds (1.55 trillion rubles) falls on the pre-capitalization of banks-both “system-forming” and selected commercial ones.
Here, in fact, is the main thing.
The reasons are clear. Firstly, financial departments are very afraid of a banking crisis with its mass bankruptcies and riots of depositors. Secondly, the money is issued to banks for a reason, but for lending to rational and consistent business projects. The only problem is that our projects are very rarely both rational and pretty to those who allocate money.
Well, thirdly, this gives the leading circle and personally to Putin to decide all the possibilities to whom to help and who is not; Which of the banking or economic structures is worthy of salvation, and which let it sink.
In addition, the most prominent also have exclusive paths. Say, Rosneft, which the Ministry of Finance does not allow to scoop up from the National Welfare Fund, in December-January in two doses received more than trillion for its bonds and is preparing to withdraw hundreds of billions from its maternal structure-Rosneftegaz.
Of course, all this is incompatible with “structural reforms”, which Shuvalov vaguely promises. But with such reforms, our entire feudal-authoritarian system as a whole is incompatible.
The victims of some concern for the people in the plan are still indicated. Say, on the indexation of insurance pensions from February 1 and a few more social support measures allocated more than 200 billion rubles. But something suggests that this is the last gift. Further indexations will be more and more clearly lag behind inflation. The savings on state employees, which are not informed in 10 % of the reduction of federal state expenses, will inevitably spread to pensioners.
As for the unemployed, the number of which is growing rapidly, then caring for them is already a frank simulation. 80 billion rubles, released for all their needs, combined - for retraining, and public work, and benefits - the amount is symbolic, because the account of those in need will go to many millions.
There is no need to wait a lot from the duty care of the small business. At best, he will not get worse. Perhaps then it is not certainly, some of the already approved measures to suffocate will be postponed, and the regional authorities will be allowed to give him benefits and discounts. But the small business is completely in the power of local bureaucracles, and why on earth will they cease to milk and drove it, it is incomprehensible. Moreover, these bureaucrats themselves will live more and more uncomfortable. 160 billion rubles, granted in the form of additional loans to local budgets, are not comparable to their needs and are insufficient to prevent the collapse of regional finance.
We will summarize. Nothing new: everything for power is all, not his own - what happens; Putinomics instead of a living economy, ambitions of the Center for a marching of the needs of the regions. This is unfair. And it will not work.
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin/Kommersant