In the economy

Oil growth only slowed down the fall of the ruble

February 2, 2015. Maxim Blanc

The prolonged drop in oil was interrupted. Within two trading sessions, the cost of a barrel added more than 13%, and the North Sea variety Brent struck a psychologically important mark of $ 50 per barrel, and after that oil added another 10%, reaching $ 55. The initial impetus for the growth of oil prices gave quite expected data on the number of new wells at shale deposits in the United States. There was no sensation in their sharp reduction. However, there were also no reasons for further decrease, so the oil "bears" preferred to fix the profit.

And soon the correction was supported by new information. On February 1, the largest strike of American oil workers in 1980 began. Members of the United SteelWorkers trade union, uniting employees of American oil and oil refineries, which are about 10% of the fuel produced in the country.

However, most analysts are not inclined to talk about the turn of oil prices. The two -day jump in prices has no economically reasonable reasons. The proposal still significantly exceeds demand, and OPEC countries, as well as other large exporters, are not going to reduce production. On the sidelines of the Cartel meeting in Vienna, representatives of the Gulf countries are advised not to deceive themselves. They relate the current correction on the expense of the fact that the heating season is now in full swing. But this factor will soon stop supporting the market. And already in the spring and summer, a new wave of sales can drop quotes to $ 30-35. After that, according to the forecasts of the OPEC representative, oil will grow somewhat and stabilizes at 40-45 dollars per barrel.

For the Russian economy and ruble, this scenario seems not too favorable. Although so far all this is nothing more than speculative reasoning, only one of the possible scenarios of the development of events. One way or another, but the Russian currency to take off the oil quotes reacted weakly. Unexpected external support only braked the next collapse of the ruble caused by a decrease in the main rate of the Russian Central Bank by two percentage points. This decrease became rather a symbolic measure: in order to resume the process of lending in the economy and the banking system of reduction from 17 to 15% per annum is clearly not enough. But it was such a symbolic gesture that representatives of the financial community wanted representatives of the Bank of Russia, since it is a signal to change monetary policy.

The news of a decrease in the rate was thrown in the dollar above 70 rubles, the American currency set a record since the beginning of the year, and the growth of the dollar only returned the quotes to this “round” figure. So the Bank of Russia, without exaggeration, was very lucky. If the US strikes have not happened in the United States, the Russian market had every chance to survive another “black Monday”. The next time, such luck may not be repeated, and sooner or later the bet will have to be reduced, since the current situation is still Patova: the high rate negates the effect of the devaluation of the ruble, and the devaluation provokes inflation, not allowing the Bank of Russia to reduce the rate.

The only one who is in winning is the Ministry of Finance. According to this, published by Monday, the head fund of the government in January increased by almost trillion - from 4.945 to 5.865 trillion rubles. And this despite the fact that in currency these numbers look a little different. On January 1, there were 87.91 billion dollars, and on February 1 - 85.09 billion, almost three billion more. The same story with the Fund of National Welfare.


Photo: Russia. Volgograd region. January 29. Oil and gas production at the Volgogradneftegaz territorial production enterprise, a branch of the Russian oil company RITEK OJSC. Dmitry Rogulin/TASS