
The war in eastern Ukraine lasts almost ten months. Ten months of the war between Russians and Ukrainians. All this time, President Vladimir Putin, the government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Investigative Committee of Russia and the means of mass inforiation controlled by the Kremlin assure us that the right business is behind them. Opponents of the authorities - independent journalists, numerous bloggers, non -system opposition, international public - are trying to prove the opposite. Recently, economists have joined them, predicting tight belts due to the insolvency of state managers. All to no avail. It would seem that if the war with the fraternal people does not break through the minds and hearts of Russians, then at least hunger stomachs will lead to some changes, but it was not there. The first deputy head of the Russian government, Igor Shuvalov, not so long ago said: “The Russian will never give his leader, despite any hardships,” and, no matter how strange it is to recognize this, he is right. However, the matter is not at all in the nature of the Russian person, to whom, according to Shuvalov, "one cannot impose other people's values."
The fact is that Putin’s policy is not a policy in its usual understanding, but rather a marketing campaign aimed not at the most intellectual people. On the majority. The authorities are produced by the product ready to use-“Novorossia”, “unity”, “special path”, “traditional values”-it can be called as you like, but, in fact, such a product is no different from the dietary “Coca-Cola”. There is a product, there is a loud name, symbolism and price. Everything is chewed, shines and does not demand to get up from the couch. It doesn’t matter what is actually in soda, Donbass or its own purse, if advertising allows itself to seem a little better than the mirror assures. Why do the authorities abandon a profitable product called "patriotism", or the central media tell the truth, if, in a simple language, the people "hacks" and asks yet?
The main enemy of the authorities and, in particular, Putin is development. This "enemy" in the form of Ukraine has come to life
The success of Putin’s policy in Russia was also brought by the fact that the Russians are desperately clinging to the past. It is difficult for them to abandon their own ideas about themselves as a victorious people or as the first in space. Although we have long been living in a completely different country and belong to a completely different people. The reason for this behavior will be explained by any psychologist - distrust of the future. The leadership of Russia with a low standard of living, corruption and stories that there were some enemies around have brought distrust to a state of panic fear. Russia is afraid to change, afraid to create itself again and adapt to the realities of the world. That is why "the Russian will never give its leader." The only possible way to survive for Russians is to nostalgic and without analysis to turn historical cliches into a sacred relic. In this sense, the main enemy of the authorities and, in particular, Putin is development. This "enemy" in the person of Ukraine has come to life.
It is because the Ukrainian people wanted to develop that Russia sends colonels of the FSB, volunteers, Chechens and contractors without passports and stripes to the Donbass. Their task is not to protect the Russian -speaking population or to annex new territories, but to destabilize the situation. All these ministers of the “DPR” and “LPR”, amusing referendums, loud words and humanitarian convoys are needed only to ensure the loyalty of the Russian people through propaganda. Putin does not need either Donbass or the Russian -speaking population. Its goal is to prevent economic and public growth in at least some of the countries of the former USSR. After all, when people live well somewhere around the ocean, then for 70 percent of Russians who have never traveled abroad, this is akin to a fairy tale, but if the neighbors heal better, then the Russian president will face a serious threat: you would not have to go on running with his vassal Yanukovych. Therefore, to seek peace in the Donbass is not in the interests of the Russian government. While there will be a war in Ukraine - Putin will be in Russia. While the separatists are bombing the civilian population of Donetsk, Volnovakh and Mariupol - Belarusian, Kazakhstan and Armenia will keep quiet and united in alliances around Russia. The future of the post -Soviet space now depends on how the situation in the east of Ukraine develops. From whether Ukraine can become a successful European state.
Only the West can help in this Ukraine. It makes no sense to count on changing the position of Russia. Putin plays on the principle of "a friend of my enemy is my enemy," and the people support him. In the external pressure of the United States and the EU, Russians see one threat to their state sovereignty, and the very possibility of European development for them is the betrayal of historical roots and the loss of individuality. It is easier for Russians to come to terms with hunger and war than to admit that they are not right in something. For them, suffering is a sign of correctness. In the struggle against the whole world, they see the service for the good of their state. Therefore, the people will endure a lot on the way to chaos and devastation. This is a matter of honor, a national idea. Do not forget that for an ordinary citizen of Russia, the mismatch of the power line is a much more real threat to the future than some sanctions and collapse of the economy. Everyone perfectly understands that for those who do not want to play according to Putin’s rules, the path to success has been ordered. Therefore, even hungry fainting will not force Russians to think about changes - it is better than behind bars.
The actions of the non -systemic opposition or dissenters in such a situation are almost meaningless. Citizens were deprived of the opportunity to demand compliance with rights and achieve changes in the country, following the letter of the law. You can go out onto the streets, you can gather on the "anti -crisis marches", but for each rally, even if it is allowed, the regime will respond with a new prohibition at best. The authorities sees everything and hears everything. Talking about the upcoming disaster to the electorate of "United Russia" is no less pointless: one cannot force society to develop if it does not want to. It is impossible to explain to people that patriotism in T -shirts with Putin is no more than in T -shirts with Mickey Mouse. It is useless to tell the country that she lives in completely different Russia than the servants of the people in the Kremlin. The president should be engaged in enlightenment, but this is not in his interests. Therefore, until the misfortune happens, until it becomes too late, it is pointless to discover the truth. She will only scare and angry. If we report that the bridge on which the country is walking will collapse soon, you will be declared a terrorist, and not a conscientious member of society. So Russia is arranged, and not understand it with either the mind, the heart, or the instinct of self -preservation.
Ivan Martynenko - Radio Freedom Journalist