The Chinese are replacing the Russians

The Chinese are replacing the Russians

Exodus

According to the Association of Travel Companies of Thailand, in 2014 the number of Russian tourists who visited the most popular resort among Russians in Thailand, Pattaya, decreased by 20% - to 857.5 thousand people. If, according to the results of the first ten months of last year, the total number of Russians who arrived in the country decreased by only 0.03% - to 1.262 million people, then in November it decreased by 21%.

Thailand received 24.8 million tourists last year, of which China accounted for 4.623 million; Malaysia - 2.48 million, Russia - 1.6 million.

The ruble has been equal to the Thai baht for many years, but now, due to its sharp depreciation in the second half of last year, two rubles have to be paid for one baht, which has hit the purchasing power of tourists hard. For the first time in the last 12 years, the number of Russian tourists began to decline.

According to the Thailand Hotel Association, hotel reservations by Russians in the country's hotels during the main tourist season (December-February) fell by 70%. The Thai tourism industry expects the number of Russian tourists to drop by more than 50% this year. Russian tour operators do not rule out that the situation is even worse, and believe that the market will find a bottom somewhere in March, when the real economic situation in Russia and the income level of Russians become clear.

Trade and various services of Pattaya also noticed a sharp decline in Russian tourists, which was a strong blow for business. The average Russian is always more wasteful than a tourist from any other country. According to the results of October last year, which can be considered pre-crisis, in the first place in terms of the number of foreigners who arrived in the country, according to the Ministry of Tourism, were the Chinese - 501,403 people, the second - the Malaysians (262,803 people) and the third - the Russians (115,197 people). ).

Restaurants and cafes with Russian cuisine are closing in Pattaya, although some “central”, like a cafe in the most popular shopping center “Central Festival”, more like a canteen in principle, do not feel a lack of visitors.

Impact on the real estate market

Pattaya in the last decade has become perhaps the most attractive place for Russian property buyers. There are more than 30,000 apartments for sale or rent in the Jomtien area alone. Coastal Pattaya property accounted for 19% of Thailand's property sales in 2013, which is quite a lot.

And about 65% of real estate purchased in 2013 in Pattaya fell on the Russians. Numerically, the majority of Russian home purchases have been in the relatively inexpensive real estate sector, such as studios in condos, and it is this sector that has been hardest hit. Some developers close projects and stop construction. They cite the economic difficulties experienced by Russian shareholders, who can no longer pay contributions, as the main reason. For example, one developer closed a project to build a large condominium, because of the total 40% of apartments sold, 90% were Russians who stopped paying due to the crisis in Russia. He chose not to take risks, close the project and return the money already paid to the shareholders. According to Thai law, the number of foreign apartment owners should not exceed 49%, and the number of Thai citizens should not be less than 51%. In the low-cost condo sector, often 60-80% of the total quota for foreigners belongs to Russians.

Of those Russians who have already purchased real estate in Pattaya, relatively poor people suffer the most, sometimes forced to sell this property cheaper than they bought it. Inexpensive condominiums are hung with ads for sale or rent. Most Russians who have bought property in Thailand over the past two years are now forced to pay twice as much for it as before due to the depreciation of the ruble, and many of them are looking to either rent it out or sell it.

The crisis year of 2008 dealt a blow to the Thai real estate market, but had almost no effect on tourism, and real estate recovered quite quickly. The current Russian crisis has hit both real estate and tourism.

But wealthy Russians do not seem to be suffering much from the crisis, rather the opposite - in the sector of expensive housing, such as cottages or penthouses in luxury condominiums, there is no drop in sales, demand is growing. Entrepreneurs targeting wealthy Russians are unlikely to lose much. The same can be said about tourism, especially in such expensive sectors as the rental of luxury yachts.

The Chinese are the new Russians

Developers believe that their troubles associated with the Russian crisis are temporary, as the Russians are being replaced by the Chinese. The Chinese are the new Russians, similar even in demeanor. Neither are particularly popular among established expats from Western countries, and among Thais too. However, the Chinese tsunami will not only cover the losses of the real estate and tourism markets, but also lift them to new heights, entrepreneurs are sure. The Chinese enter the real estate market in Thailand not one by one, like the Russians, but centrally. The Chinese prefer to create joint ventures for housing construction, and they come to the market with existing clients who want to purchase housing, that is, a significant amount of real estate will be acquired through Chinese-Thai joint ventures.

Chinese tourists are expected to grow by 22% this year, with a record 5.6 million Chinese visiting Thailand. At the same time, tourism industry revenues will grow by 27% and amount to 248 billion baht. The average length of stay of a Chinese tourist in Thailand is 8 days, he spends about 5,000 baht per day. At the end of 2014, the most popular countries for Chinese tourists were: New Zealand, USA, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Italy, Thailand and England.

Who lives well in Thailand

For some segments of the Russian population, not related to the rich, Thailand may seem very attractive for permanent residence in connection with the crisis. We are talking about people whose sources of income do not depend on the state of the Russian market and the exchange rate of the ruble, and whose jobs do not require a stay in Russia. For example, sailors working in foreign companies - and if we talk about professionals, then there are a majority of such people in the Russian crew. The vast majority of families of Russian sailors live in Russia, while they themselves spend no more than 4-6 months a year in their homeland. But Russian economic turmoil and the complete unpredictability of the actions of the country's leadership can put seafarers in a downright hopeless situation in that they will not be able to receive salaries in the usual, familiar way.

Crimean sailors have already faced such difficulties. Money transferred by foreign employers does not go to Crimean banks due to sanctions. If Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, then sailors from other regions of the Russian Federation will not be able to receive salaries on the cards of Russian banks.

Those of them who have or open accounts in foreign banks will face the need to report to the tax service of the Russian Federation already at the end of 2015, and this reporting, its technology has already been recognized by experts as completely unbearable for people with ordinary income levels, only millionaires can do it . What to do? Carrying your salary home in cash, wrapped in a belt with tightly packed bills? But who knows, whether they will ban the currency altogether or start exchanging it at a “fixed” rate, which will sharply depreciate it?

The way out seems to be the removal of the family to some inexpensive and comfortable countries - at that time, until everything is somehow decided in Russia. In a number of such countries, Thailand is undoubtedly among the first, and the current crisis of Russian tourism and Russian real estate in the country is rather a boon, since real estate prices have already gone down.