Impossible and "significant" negotiations

Munich Security Conference. The Ukrainian problem has returned the forum acute relevance

From the sixth to the eighth of February, Munich is held in the International Security Conference. The capital of Bavaria is an organizer of the forum for the fifty -first time. This is one of the most prestigious measures in the field of foreign and defense policy, an analogue of the Davos forum in the field of economics. The current conference promises to be one of the most representative: the world community is concerned about the situation in Ukraine.

Almost 400 guests will come to Munich, of which 20 are heads of state and governments, 60 are ministers of foreign affairs and defense. The second day of the conference will be completely devoted to European security issues. The main speakers on this topic will be Angela Merkel, Joseph Biden, Sergey Lavrov. "The regulations allocated time for unofficial, culuar rendezvous," said the chairman of the conference of the veteran of German diplomacy, Wolfgang Ishinger. Presidents Petro Poroshenko, Rosen Plengeliev and Sauli Ninisto will be participants in one of them. The Finnish head repeatedly expressed anxiety about the worsening relations of the West and Russia. On this occasion, Wolfgang Ishinger noticed:

Wolfgang Ishinger

- I am sure that they will use this chance to fully discuss options for de -escalation of the crisis and getting out of the extremely difficult situation. The purpose of these discussions is not to promote the interests of Russia or the West. They are aimed at finding a way to help the long -suffering people of Ukraine. In addition, the crisis in Ukraine is not only Ukrainian, but also pan -European.

According to the latest UN data, about five thousand people died in the war in the southeast of Ukraine. More than a million became refugees. Over four thousand Ukrainians asked for asylum in the countries of the European Union, mainly in Poland, Germany and Sweden. According to the World Health Organization, the infrastructure of medical institutions in the war zone has been destroyed; About one and a half million people need humanitarian assistance.

In the situation, the events upcoming at the conference may be less significant in their consequences than one meeting that could take place, but will not take place, which the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin informed journalists. This refers to his meeting with Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov. The very fact of the meeting could become a significant event, the employee of the Foreign Policy Initiative research center Anna Barschevskaya did not exclude:

The bet is for coercion, not belief. No interesting new ideas for leaving the crisis are voiced by diplomats

- By all visible signs of this meeting, it was not destined to happen. The West has now taken care of how to help Ukraine economically, whether it is advisable to transfer fatal weapons to Kyiv in response to the continuing violations of the trucks with separatists, whether additional sanctions should be imposed against Moscow. In turn, official rhetoric against the West coming from Moscow is as implacable as before. The atmosphere in both camps does not have agreements. The bet is for coercion, not belief. The diplomats do not voice any interesting new ideas for leaving the crisis. And while this situation takes place, it doesn’t matter with whom Lavrov meets or does not meet.

The rules of the game in the international arena are disrupted by constantly, so the 2015 conference takes place against the backdrop of an unprecedented surge of crises, said the Forum Chairman Wolfgang Ishinger :

It was much easier to organize a conference this year than in previous years. No one had to beg to come, everyone was asking themselves

- These are nuclear negotiations with Iran, and the outbreak of the Ebola, Iraq and Syria epidemic, cyber terrorism, war in eastern Ukraine. Our age is marked by the widespread collapse of the world order. Global and regional institutions function poorly. The UN Security Council, in theory, should have been devoted to overcoming a particular crisis every week. But the work of the Security Council is blocked, and the participants have no political will on reform that can unlock it.

According to Ishinger, the abundance of crises had one conditionally positive effect: it was much easier to organize a conference this year than in previous years. No one had to beg to come, everyone was asking themselves. And for a not quite understandable reason, the number of anti -globalists protesting against the Munich rally, this time will probably be less than usual. Ishinger hopes that not this year, but soon, the list of guests of his conference will be replenished with the name of the Pope Francis the First, who is trying to intensify the peacekeeping mission of the Church.

Not only national, but also regional leaders are invited to Munich. Among them, Kurdistan President Masud Barzani, who will introduce the participants with how the war with terrorists from the Islamic State is reflected in the people. The total population of the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq is about five million, and today only in the administrative center of Erbile and its environs is settled about one and a half million refugees from the war zone.

In a security conference in Munich, where there will be a conflict in the Donbass, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko should take part.

If Putin remains unsatisfied offers of Hollande and Merkel, then there will be a new aggravation of the situation in the Donbass

Whether his plans have changed after the sudden visit of February February to Kyiv leaders of France and Germany, who discussed with Poroshenko new peaceful initiatives to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. There is no exact information about the specific proposals of Francois Hollande and Angels Merkel, who in Kyiv refused to comment on the press results of a tripartite meeting. On February sixth, Merkel and Hollande also have negotiations with Russian President Putin in Moscow.

Negotiations of the Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko with the President of the French Republic Francois Hollande and the Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Angel Merkel as a whole continued on the evening of February about five hours. Official Kyiv insists on the implementation of the Minsk agreements signed in September last year and, in particular, the ceasefire, the liberation of hostages, the closure of the border and the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the Ukrainian territory.

We want peace, but if we will exhibit the conditions every time, we are ready for a long war

From unofficial sources, it became known that in negotiations, European leaders called for Poroshenko to make concessions of Russia and record a new line of demarcation in the Donbass, taking into account the territories that the militants took five months after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements. The Western press claims that the plan of Hollande and Merkel also provides for the so -called DPR and LPR wider than assumed, autonomy within Ukraine. In the Verkhovna Rada, the efforts of France and Germany are welcomed, aimed at establishing peace in the Donbass, but at the same time urged the Ukrainian leadership not to deviate from national interests. Says non -confractional deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Borislav Bereza :

- Ukraine wants peace. That is why we are trying to find points of contact, we participate in all possible negotiation formats, we are looking for any options, but we are not interested in options at the price of loss of honor and dignity. We want peace, but if we will set the conditions every time, we are ready for a long war.

Ukraine needs peace in the Donbass, but not at the expense of its sovereignty and the European future, says the head of the Ukrainian government Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Francois Holland on the eve of visits to Kyiv and Moscow emphasized that for France, Ukraine’s entry into NATO is undesirable. And these words of the French leader are obviously designed to soften Vladimir Putin's position on Donbass. Borislav Bereza continues:

Victory will still be behind us because Putin's time is leaving

- We are not striving for NATO, Putin is pushing us into this association, that Russian troops are located in Ukraine, that terrorists are funded by Russian money, as well as the fact that Russian television and hysteria in Russian media are created by Russian weapons, which supports a certain part of the population in Russia and the pro -Russian part in Ukraine. We are not looking for enemies, enemies appoint themselves. Now we see that Putin is changing his views, goals, statements, but no matter what he does, victory will still be behind us, because Putin's time is leaving.

The solution can only be partial today - it is freezing the conflict according to the Transnistrian scenario

Experts associate the new peaceful initiatives of the two European leaders with the possible decision of Washington on the supply of weapons to Ukraine. In order to prevent such a development of events, Vladimir Putin, obviously, is trying to rewrite Minsk agreements with the help of Hollande and Merkel and freeze the conflict in the east of Ukraine. Summarizes political scientist Vadim Karasev :

- The solution can only be partial today - it is freezing the conflict according to the Transnistrian scenario, that is, the ceasefire and to guarantee this - the introduction of peacekeeping forces into the Donbass.

In Kyiv, it was previously stated that they did not see the grounds for introducing the UN or OSCE peacekeepers or the OSCE peacekeepers. According to the political strategist Taras Berezovts , if the Kremlin achieves the appearance of peacekeepers in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, then this will significantly weaken the position of Ukraine:

- This question remains open, but if this happens, it will indicate a weakening of Ukraine, will show that Ukraine does not control the situation in the Donbass. I think that there will be no unequivocal decision today of this crisis, and moreover, if Putin remains unsatisfied offers of Hollande and Merkel, there will be a new aggravation of the situation in the Donbass.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin, commenting on the negotiations of Poroshenko, Hollande and Merkel, wrote on his Twitter page: “The meeting of the Norman three went well. Do not worry. France and Germany help us return the world.”