Minsk disobedience

The agreements signed on September 5 in the capital of Belarus were completely naught: the last round of negotiations on January 31 failed, and the new one against the background of the latest European initiatives is not expected. Why - versed The New Times

On January 31, at about 7 pm, six people left the gates of the DipService Hall manor complex in Minsk. Journalists immediately recognized the ex-president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma in one of them, hurried to him, but he made a hand away with his hand and got into the car. “No Comment,” a woman in glasses refused to comment and brittle addition, the representative of the OSCE Switzerkh Khaidi Taglinini (the same thing that the report of international experts on the “equal responsibility of Georgia and Russia” in the August 2008 conflict 5 years ago), usually eagerly talking in Russian, which she knows along with 6 other languages.

Somehow imperceptibly, sideways, another interest in Ukraine, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, passed and disappeared in the official limousine.

But two other participants in the meeting of the trilateral contact group to resolve the situation in the east of Ukraine - Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Demol, representatives of the self -proclaimed DPR and LPR, were quite tuned to communication with journalists. Having convened an impromptu press conference, they announced the demand for Kyiv to immediately stop the shelling of the territories controlled by them, and if this does not happen, it is all the worse for Kyiv, since the “decisive military successes” of the militia are already obvious for everyone, and it is hardly possible to talk about the future of the DPR and the LPR (February 3, Pushilin, is more categorical on this score-it will be more categorical-it will be even categorically-it is even categorical-it is even categorical-it is even categorical-it is even categorical-it is even categorical-it is even categorical- "Unrealistic").

The “personal watching” sixth at a meeting in Minsk was an officially not a member of the contact group. But he is a special representative of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on humanitarian issues within the framework of a tripartite group, he is responsible - and, moreover, successfully - for the exchange of prisoners, and his presence in the negotiations is not disputed by anyone. This is Viktor Medvedchuk, the leader of the Ukrainian Choice movement, the ex-head of the presidential administration under Leonid Kuchme, and Kum Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev (godmother's gods of the youngest daughter Medvedchuk-Vladimir Putin and Svetlana Medvedeva).

A long time ago, at the end of June last year, Angel Merkel personally (it is clear that with Putin’s filing) suggested introducing Medvedchuk into the contact group, but Kyiv under the pressure of the Maidan abandoned this idea. But they still found a place for Kum.

“This is Putin’s“ personal watching ”, this is he, and by no means the Ambassador of Zurabov usually supplies the president with all the information regarding the activities of the contact group,” the Russian diplomatic source noted in a conversation with the magazine on the basis of anonymity. “It is he that Putin’s Messages are properly broadcast by representatives of the DPR and LPR, well, so that they do not burrow, like a girkin shooter.”

From the very beginning, the Minsk process walked, as it were, along two parallel lines, visible and invisible. The visible line was visible by the public statements of Moscow, Kyiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, OSCE, the EU and further on the list.

For the invisible Putin and Poroshenko personally, who used to say several times a week, although this was not reflected in press releases, three were responsible for the line: assistant to the President of the Russian Federation (in Ukraine and Abkhazia) Vladislav Surkov, Viktor Medvedchuk and Mikhail Zurabov. Of all three Zurabov, Putin's smallest confidence, but he is a longtime friend of Petro Poroshenko. The Russian embassy in Kiev, as in a conversation with NT , the editor -in -chief of the influential Kiev weekly “Mirror of the Week” Julia Mostovaya noted, plays mainly the role of ceremonies of the master, the main contacts come along hundreds of informal channels - business and personal. But over time, the West understood the oddities of the “hybrid relations” of the two countries after the Maidan: in contrast to the famous formula “neither peace nor war”, there were “peace and war” here. And therefore, when on the night of December 6, Naftogaz transferred Gazprom $ 378 million to pay off the debt for gas, many in the EU considered that the goals and objectives of the Minsk process were about to be achieved. It is no coincidence that the Ambassador of Vincent Deger, who was responsible in European diplomacy for the Russian direction, arrived in Moscow, was interested in independent Russian experts, how to continue to be with Eurosanions.

But not even a month had passed since the truce established in the east of Ukraine was disrupted, the war entered the new phase, and the Russian “humanitarian convoys” and other “vacationers” went like so and continued to walk across the Naguy Russian-Ukrainian border. The West asked a much more difficult question: what is in Putin’s head in general? And was it possible to initially count on the success of the Minsk agreements?

Plenipotentiary issue but back to Minsk. Daemny and Pushilin, as agreed with Kiev in advance, arrived here on the eve of the 30th, but found that there was no one to talk to: Leonid Kuchma, the special representative of the President of Ukraine in the negotiations, was not on the spot. However, there was no special riddle here. Kuchma never hid that he was ready to talk on this site only with Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky - they signed this on behalf of the DPR and LPR Minsk protocol on the ceasefire on September 5, personally, according to Kuchma, are responsible for the implementation of its provisions and are able to make real decisions. The problem is that in Donetsk and Lugansk there were considerations in this regard. After the election on November 2, Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky, I like Kyiv or not, became the leaders of the self -proclaimed republics: the first scored more than 70 % of the vote, the second - 63.04 %. And now they are quite a conversation with President Poroshenko. But Kuchma may well have the same special representatives in the role of his visits as himself. Yes, and what is the powers of himself - a separate issue. “Well, there was information that Kuchma was announced to the plenipotentiary of the President of Ukraine, but when Leonid Danilovich himself was asked about this, he somehow said very uncertainly that for now, they say, there were no documents on this score,” comments on the oncoming claims of Donetsk and Lugansk, the ex-head of the Presidential Department for domestic politics, now the head of the civil society development fund Konstantin Kostin. - There must be a (presidential) decree or order. If there is such a document, then its (kuchma) is clear status and powers. I personally have not seen such a document. ” At the same time, the interlocutor NT agreed that in the Kremlin the Kuchma’s powers are not in doubt and we are talking about those who are negotiating - the DPR and the LPR. ”

In Kyiv, all this is considered a conversation from the evil one. Kuchma’s appointment occurred at the end of June, and since then his powers have not been questioned by anyone. Why did the question get up now? “This is one of the ways to level the Minsk agreements, tighten the negotiation process: after all, if there are no officially authorized parties, then there is no subject of negotiations, and then you can calmly prepare for a new offensive,” the Ukrainian diplomatic source of NT sees the tactics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

But why, in the end, Poroshenko himself should not sit at the negotiating table with Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky. After all, if you believe the Financial Times, Putin Angel Merkel said at a Brisben summit: they say, it was not easy for me to negotiate with Kadyrov Sr., but I had to do it. “Kadyrov in those negotiations represented himself and Chechnya, Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky - this is, to put it mildly, another story,” retorts Julia Mostovaya in a conversation with NT with NT .

At the same time, Poroshenko until the last tried to maintain a chance of settlement. “Leonid Danilovich, go (to Minsk),” he said on January 30 Kuchma: the meeting must take place, and the results are already a separate issue.

“It is important for Kyiv to confirm its constant good will and the mood for the implementation of agreements, because Kuchma went to Minsk,” Julia Mostovaya is developing the topic. And he adds that the negotiations on January 31 did not fail because of the lack of someone’s authority-it simply became completely obvious: in fact, there was nothing to talk about, the Minsk process is dead.

It became finally clear to increase the line of stumbling for many in Kiev on January 15, when the letter of Vladimir Putin Petro Poroshenko, the arrogantly called the Kremlin press service, received a “peaceful plan” on Bankova. In fact, the letter contained a single proposal-so that “both sides-both Ukrainian power structures and militias of Donbass” immediately stopped mutual shelling and took away heavy artillery (“means of defeat with a caliber of more than 100 mm”). Where? “The range of Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014, based on the actual passage of the contact line according to the attached map” (see card). At the same time, the Russian president promised together with the OSCE to "organize control over these steps."

But on the scrap map, the bar-with a punch was marked by the mysterious “line of contact of the parties as of September 19, 2014 and January 13, 2015”

Kyiv, however, could not arrange one and the other date. The first - because in the secret application to the Minsk memorandum of September 19 it was spoke of another distinction line - its coordinates passed the east. (And it turns out that the Donetsk airport is located in the territory, which should go to the DPR and LPR). The second - because by January 13, 2015, the separatists combined at 600-650 km2 to the west. It turned out that Putin proposes to forget the “Minsk line” and legitimize the “actual”, January.

“We were confused and did not know how to respond to this letter that turned the top with the bottom with the bottom,” tells NT a diplomatic source in Kiev. - We waited a week until Sergey Lavrov will come to Berlin to meet the heads of the Foreign Ministry in the Norman format. And now he says on January 21: yes, they say, heavy artillery must be removed from the line fixed in the Minsk memorandum. So who to believe? "

On January 25, after 10 days, Poroshenko gives a completely predictable answer to Putin: with a proposal, the actual line of contact (January 13, 2015) cannot agree with the proposal. Kyiv cannot agree.

Details of the response of Poroshenko appear in the Ukrainian media on January 28, by this moment the situation in the Donbass is sharply aggravated, the separatists begin a powerful offensive, the head of the DPR Zakharchenko declares the intention to “advance to the borders of the Donetsk region” and that “there will be no more attempts to talk about a truce on our part”.

What Putin wants partly wine for the failure of the Minsk process and tightening the position of separatists lies with the Ukrainian army, the expert of the European Studies in Brussels Michael Emerson believes: “After the massive shelling of settlements, including cassette bombs, Donetsk and Lugansk will never agree to withdraw to the former rear.” In essence, the ex-head of the DPR Alexander Borodai also speaks of the same: the Minsk agreements would have much more chances for success if the Armed Forces of Ukraine had not begun to apply “new tactics-to create the conditions impossible for life in the territories of the DPR and the LPR”.

By the end of January, the critical situation is formed for a 7,000-strong Ukrainian group in the Debaltsevo area. In Donetsk they talk about the “boiler”, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine carefully refutes this data. According to the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Anton Gerashchenko, "Putin had a plan until January 30 to surround Debaltseve and develop an attack on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk."

The attack on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk did not work, but in the negotiations of the contact group in Minsk, the version of Putin’s intention to go further, to the West, if Kyiv shows intransigence, suddenly finds confirmation. “Negotiations began at about 4 in the afternoon,” the diplomatic source of NT retells the details of the dialogue in Minsk. - When the question arose of what to consider from now on the real line of the sizes of the parties, representatives of the DPR and LPR made it clear that "they would arrange the outer line of the border." What does it mean - the administrative border of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as such.

This information is confirmed by Julia Mostovaya. According to her, during the last telephone conversation with Peter Poroshenko, allegedly in the early days of February, the Russian leader started talking about the western administrative border of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions to consider the destruction line. Thus, the overlap of the Russian-Ukrainian border, as required by the Minsk Protocol, is no longer about. “What does Putin really want today? First of all, the federalization of Ukraine, guarantees of its neutral status, autonomy of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, up to an independent foreign economic and foreign policy. At the same time, all expenses for their maintenance should lie on Kyiv, ”says Mostovaya.

But what about the Minsk agreements? “And no one really counted on them either in Moscow or in Kyiv. They were not a treatment, but rather anesthesia. ” And sooner or later the action of any anesthesia comes to naught.

Anton Baev Baev and Pavel Nikulin took part in the preparation of the material