The world with salamander

The novel by Karel Chapek "War with Salamander" was written two years before Munich. But there in detail it describes how the Western powers step by step hand over Europe to Hitler and what it leads to. People understood everything even then. If not all, then many.

Today, not just many understand everything, but everything. The world froze in anticipation: will Munich repeat? Everyone understands that the recognition of a new distinction line is the new Munich. Because it will mean that in a couple of months the demarcation line will move again and it will have to be recognized again. Everyone understands that fixing the demarcation line with international peacekeeping forces is also a new Munich. Because this is the consolidation of the power of Russian agents over part of the Donbass. The authorities, obtained by deception and force held by terror and properled by Russian troops and weapons. In fact, this is an attempt to shift to international peacekeepers the function that Russian interventions are now being performed in the Donbass.

In fact, this is the consolidation of violent rejection by Russia another after the Crimea part of the territory of Ukraine. So, the Russian Federation can continue to try to arrange hybrid war from its neighbors. So, soon it can try to do any other country that has enough impudence and contempt for human life.

Maybe Hollande and Merkel know the magical remedy with which they will force the Supreme Salamander to leave the Donbass, after his positions there are reliably covered by international peacekeepers? What did they rush to the Kremlin amphibian? What made them rush like that?

The latter is more or less clear. They were alarmed by the prospect of supplies to Ukraine of American weapons. So the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini says: "When they try to find a political decision, as we do with all our might, the supply of weapons of one of the parties to the conflict does not seem to me a consistent gesture." It’s painful to pain. European democracies allowed Hitler and Mussolini to strangle the Spanish Republic, prohibiting the supply of weapons "one of the parties to the conflict." Of course, in order to "do not add oil into the fire of the Civil War." This was called the "policy of non -interference." How many revealing Filippic pronounced the European (and not only) Communists about this policy! An angry joke of history is that today the prominent figure of the former Italian Communist Party Federica Mogherini acts as the “non -interferennial”. They turned strongly!

European leaders are afraid that the supply of weapons to Ukraine will provoke the Kremlin to escalate. They are afraid that the Supreme Salamander will go even further. And where can he go further? He cannot occupy the whole of Ukraine. Any exit of Russian troops outside the Donbass is extremely risky for him. Just because there the population will meet his army not like in Luganda. The only thing the Kremlin can do now is to officially announce the entry of troops into the Donbass, ceasing to play in a hybrid war. The situation in the Donbass will not fundamentally change. But it will oblige European leaders to burn the last bridges with the Kremlin. Introduce such sanctions that will fly into a penny. I really don't want to. They are afraid of this.

Hollande and Merkel flew to Moscow to scare Putin: you will not yield to at least something - the supply of weapons to Ukraine will become inevitable. But it is difficult to scare Putin to people who themselves are afraid of the consequences of these supplies even more than him. Who continue to repeat that they do not want to build European security against Russia, but want to build it with Russia. Who are afraid to say: we will not build security with such Russia. Together with Putin's Russia.

In this situation, any conversation about Putin's concessions will inevitably turn into a conversation about Putin's concessions. Upon maintaining the situation of uncertainty and lack of insignificance, the policy of balancing on the verge of new Munich will sooner or later turn into a new Munich.

It is possible, as the president of France does, to argue that the inhabitants of Donbass have passed the war will be difficult to return to their former life and they need autonomy. But any elections, referendums and autonomy are possible only after Luganda militants surrender power and weapons. You can discuss the issue of to whom they should hand over power and weapons. Maybe the interim international administration. Maybe international peacekeepers. But only the present, not the fake. Not the same as they slept peacefully when Ratko Mladic cut out the population of Srebrenitsa. The peacekeeping operation in the Donbass will only make sense if peacekeeping forces will have the right and physical opportunity to force those who do not obey them. Throughout the territory of Luganda, and not just along the ghostly "distinction line". And what new bold initiatives would no longer complement “peace plans” now, without the surrender of power and weapons, any agreement will be new Munich.

In fact, Western leaders have a way to make Putin be afraid of the consequences of the escalation of the conflict more than they. And at the same time, do not only do without the supply of weapons to Ukraine, but also without ruin economic sanctions, from which, as you know, innocent inhabitants suffer from both the West and in Russia. To do this, they need to convince Putin of their readiness to respond to escalation by deploying his own troops in Ukraine. In order to conduct a peacekeeping operation to help assistance that were accidentally lost during the exercises for the soldiers in search of the road home.