Russia went

I don’t know who benefited from the Minsk agreements, but Russia lost. Putin took on obligations that he would not fulfill, and even if he wants, the inner demon would not allow him to give in to those whom he does not consider himself even.

Formally, everything looks like Russia has achieved its own: Kyiv will not have anything left but the ceasefire, and the DPR and the LPR will receive actual independence from Ukraine. However, everyone, including Western sponsors of peaceful settlement, perfectly understand that in Minsk, in fact, one question was resolved: about the refusal of Russia to support separatists to military and military equipment. This question, of course, could not be included in the official document, as Russia categorically denies its military presence in the east of Ukraine.

This situation is absolutely transparent. Poroshenko’s conversation with Lukashenko’s conversation with Lukashenko (“He is dishonestly, dudy plays on You Tube ...” - “I know. I know this. And I understand this”) is very characteristic: Poroshenko does not explain what exactly Putin is dishonest, and Lukashenko is not interested in. For what? Everything is clear to everyone.

I will quote a fragment of the poem by Leonid Kaganov, in which this background of the Minsk negotiations is remarkably played out:

The whole world, tired of problems
Standing his shoulder
And agreed with the
which nothing to do with it.

About the rockets not to be taken,
which were not taken.
About those who are not,
They went home to them.

That it stops
that so prevented everyone, -
All that is ever, no one
I did not do here at all.

The mutual discharge of heavy equipment prescribed in the Minsk agreements, the elections and constitutional reform are details that you can now not think about, one thing is important: Russia will agree to block the border with the DPR -LNR or not. If he agrees, in a month Ukraine will win, the world will come to the Donbass (not Russian, but the one in which they do not shoot), and the problem of federalization, financial independence from Kyiv and the “right to speak Russian” will worry the residents of Gorlovka no more than it concerns the inhabitants of Slavyansk or Mariupol.

But Putin did not compromise. Immediately after the Minsk negotiations, Peskov said that Russia is not a party that performs a set of measures for peaceful settlement. “We simply cannot do it physically,” Putin’s press secretary explained, “because Russia is not a participant in this conflict.” We would not be happy.

Norpiphazed

Putin will not block the border: he no longer has no reverse or brakes. It should be noted that in Russia, the situation when Putin in front of the international public made what this public begged him not to do, is recorded in the plus of the president - the meme “Putin outplayed all” confirmation of this. Unfortunately, such an understanding of Russia's “victories” is common not only in illiterate circles, but also in the political elite, including among diplomats. Of course, outside Russia, such situations are interpreted directly in the opposite and sharply reduce the country's image. Sounding from the Duma rostrum - even from Zhirinovsky’s lips - calls to bomb Germany, presumably, the authorities are amused by the authorities, but this, of course, is not at all what you need to establish a dialogue with the former main partner of Russia in the European Union. Putin and the Russian political elite as a whole over and over again deprive Western colleagues, the opportunity to close the topic of sanctions.

As a result, the world will come close to a dangerous line, because the disconnection of Russia from the Swift system that has already loosened on the horizon will be perceived by the Kremlin as a declaration of war. As Medvedev recently said: “If such decisions are made, I would like to note that our economic reaction, and indeed any other, will be without restrictions.” Any other, without restrictions. Judging by the latest statements by Russian politicians, the Kremlin has already developed a working theory, according to which war can be waged not only by military means; In other words, an attempt to weaken Russia can economically lead to a military answer.

If you remove the blocking from forbidden thoughts and just remember what Putin, Lavrov, Deputies, Russian political scientists, television have been saying recently, to recall all these “boilers” and calls to hold the Victory Parade in Berlin, it becomes clear: all these people are tired of finging around Debaltsevo and Mariupol, they are truly a fascinese, to make sure of the pursuan. He for his post -Soviet inferiority complex. They want no abolition of sanctions, not the return of Russia to the G8 , not an apology from the OSCE and not the non -block status of Ukraine. They want a big military victory. And I still do not see how to avoid a collision. The sacramental “this will not be allowed” sounds soothing, but it breaks down about a simple question: who exactly will allow?

Will they allow this?

More recently, the Russian ruling elite was conservative. Not only by the tendency to traditional values, but also, most importantly, by rejection of revolutions. The socio-political views of these people were formed around the faith that stability is more important than freedom. Without irony, I note that such people are in every country and they fulfill an important function, slowing down the activity of too emotional or simply radical members of society. And with Brezhnev and under Yeltsin, there were enough people who understood that some things could not be done simply because it was impossible. Yes, and Putin himself with his Kagabash past was accepted at one time by the country as a person who will be able to restore order. What came of this is another question, I now want to emphasize only the need of society not only for pioneers, but also in those who remember how to steer. A photograph of a Parisian old woman found somewhere somewhere, walking the dog against the background of a crowd of revolutionary students, illustrated this very well. Self -asserting children are raging, adults wise with life monitor so that society does not plunge into chaos. For a healthy society, both are needed, although Sokolov hardly had in mind the need for others.

Now it is already strange to recall that until recently, conservatives reproached the opponents: everything would be for you to inflate a world fire! Now they themselves arranged a real, not a figurative fire and are already wondering how soon you can get from Moscow to Warsaw on a tank.

But from the beginning of the Crimean events, the situation suddenly turned upside down: all the liberals familiar to me have advocated peace, while the conservatives who recently repeated that without stability, order and sausage, no freedom was needed and that only the revolution can be worse than the revolution, and only a war, they sang in chorus: “For Novorossia!”, “To Kyiv!”, “On Berlin!”. - And other damp, befitting only teenagers in whom hormones are not balanced by life experience.

The first call was the conservative reaction to the accession of Crimea, when legal law was rejected in favor of the law of historical or even if we recall the words of Putin about Sevastopol, sacred. The credo of the conservatives - Pacta Sunt Servanda - at one moment was rejected for the sake of emotions. If you recall the story at least in the most general terms, then the transition from written right to custom and then just to pike command, my desire is an outstanding regression. This shift entailed a complete collapse of social thought. Now it is already strange to recall that until recently, conservatives reproached the opponents: everything would be for you to inflate a world fire! Now they themselves arranged a real, not a figurative fire and are already wondering how soon you can get from Moscow to Warsaw on a tank.

A peaceful respite

There is another, later and characteristic of modern societies, a mechanism that impedes the outbreak of aggression - this is a rejection of a part of the society of violence in any forms. That is, such violence that has rational grounds and is justified by another part of society. So, for example, the Society of modern Ukraine can be conditionally divided into two parts: supporters of the military struggle with the deadly enemy and those who see the enemy primarily a person, and therefore calls for compromise and peaceful coexistence. We see the same in Israel. More recently, Russian society demonstrated elements of the same duality in relation to Chechen wars, at least by the first. I do not want to say that the whole society is obliged to demonstrate a humane attitude towards enemies in a single impulse, here, as in the case of conservatism, the existence of both points of view is important so that the presence of choice balances society, holding it from dangerous extremes.

However, now in Russia this humanistic skill is significantly disappeared. “Before all spirituality and cross -ownedness, it would be necessary to teach people a very simple truth for a long and consistently: every living representative of the species of Homo sapiens is a person and differs from a salty cucumber in that it cannot be slaughtered and eaten when they want,” the Orthodox publicist Andrei Desnitsky wrote on Facebook, who very sensitively responds to the masked under the spiritual revival Moral degradation of Russian society. Today in Russia there is no party of the world, there is only a ceasefire party - in full accordance with Lenin's teachings about a peaceful respite. Not one of any influential power in the country advocates a compromise with Ukraine. In fact, only one option is considered: the complete political surrender of the “Kyiv junta”, only some believe that this can be achieved exclusively by a military way, while others believe in the effectiveness of non -military measures. It is generally accepted that the cultural codes of Russian and Ukrainian societies are very close (so that in Russia many completely deny the existence of a separate Ukrainian nation), but now Russians and Ukrainians react completely differently to the same irritants. In Ukraine, protective mechanisms are included, a search for exiting a destructive confrontation is launched, but in Russia they are not included. At the same time, the population of the DPR, LPR and Crimea reacts to the situation of the "enemy" just like the Russians. The evolution of two related society has parted in opposite directions. Ukraine began to develop accelerately according to the model of modern European civilization, Russia returns back to the era when the most important aggression mechanisms for civilization, especially in the nuclear age, did not exist.

All this complex metamorphosis was in the shadow of political, military and media battles of the past year, and I see the most important thing in it. At all times, Russian society was provided with a “brake”. The presence of this mechanism gave us the feeling that some completely terrible script would “not allow”. Now Russia is left without brakes and will go until it rests. The only question is how much she will have time to accelerate by that time.