Nobody wanted to die

Not only in Russia, but in the West, many call Vladimir Putin a real master of hybrid war, who made both the West and Ukraine be considered skillful actions. But in fact, in the actions of Vladimir Putin and his advisers there is nothing new. They simply scrupulously copy the first special operation of the KGB on the collapse of the Soviet Union - participation in the Karabakh crisis.

I will not go into disputes about what served as the root cause of the conflict in Karabakh: perennial friction between the Armenian and Azerbaijani population of the region, the contradictions between Stepanakert and Baku, constant antagonism between the party authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is not important in this case - but the fact that the Soviet special services did everything possible to enrich the conflict in the situation when it had to be reassured. An example of this is the famous article "Emotions and Reason" in the newspaper Pravda, the organ of the Central Committee of the CPSU. Since I witnessed her preparation for the press, I can confidently confirm the statements of the Pravda’s own correspondents in the Armenian SSR and the Azerbaijan SSR, who did not see this article - but they saw their signatures under it in the newspaper.

This article, which did not satisfy one of the parties to the conflict and perceived as the official position of the Soviet leadership, blew Karabakh. I blew up Armenia. Azerbaijan blew up. The Karabakh conflict led to innumerable troubles in two countries, which - despite the difficult historical past and misunderstanding - could maintain the cold world, and not fight with each other. At the same time, the Armenians would continue to live in Baku, who was one of the main civilizational centers of this people, and the Azerbaijanis in Agdam, Shush and even in Yerevan. Now all this is no longer possible to imagine.

But then the results of this quarter -century nightmare are well known. This is the practical collapse of the Azerbaijani state and the complete marginalization of democratic forces, which lost the initiative to the returning country to life and authoritarianism, General of the KGB of the USSR, Heydar Aliyev. The transformation of Armenia into one of the poorests - and the most dependent on Russia of the post -Soviet countries, in which the forces protruding for the most natural are marginalized - based on the centuries -old history of the Armenian people - the European path of development. It is amazing that the country, which, along with Byzantium, Rome and Judea, created our civilization, as a result of the actions of the Lubyanka was literally on the side of the modernity - and this is the problem of not only Armenia, but also the future Caucasus and Europe. And finally, Karabakh - he turned into a fortress country, a destabilizer of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the same time. So why not turn the Donbass into such karabakh? And what will become of Ukraine - the post -war Armenia or the post -war Azerbaijan - Vladimir Putin is unlikely to worry. Moreover, Ukraine, like Armenia, has no oil.

But in this repetition of the passed there is one small miscalculation. Armenians really needed Artsakh. And Azerbaijanis really needed Karabakh. It was a classic ethnic conflict, the Earth, which each of the peoples considered his own and which he did not want to share with anyone. The Armenians were ready to die at Artsa. And the Azerbaijanis were ready to die for Karabakh. Even the independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan became the result of this struggle, and not vice versa.

Nobody wants to die for Donbass. Ukrainian soldiers protecting the front line from the Russian army defend Ukraine, not Donbass. It is no accident that even in Mariupol, until recently, one of the main cities of the Donetsk region, they talk about the new area, Priazovskaya - in order to identify themselves not with the Donbass, but with Ukraine. Is it possible to imagine that residents of at least part of the territory of Artsakh abandon its name? Never!

Russian soldiers and mercenaries also do not conquer the Donbass, for them he is just a bridgehead. The Russians are just fulfilling the plan of their supreme commander in chief of the situation in Ukraine. And Putin does not care where it is destabilized.

Industrial Donbass for both Ukraine and Russia is a real suitcase without a pen. People arguing that Ukraine "lost in Debaltsev" and how the economy of the DPR and the LPR will now develop thanks to such a wonderful railway junction are presented to me by uniform madmen. What is the economy in the destroyed industrial region? To whom will Donbass be saved by their products? Its coal needs one single country in the world - and this despite the fact that another anthracite in this very world is, and Donbass does not have another Ukraine. The DPR and LPR can only exist as bridgeheads for the destabilization of Ukraine - and no longer. And no matter how much Putin occupies the territory, he will still not make Karabakh from Donbass. Do you know why?

And because the Armenian, who was enrolled in the militia of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, loved Artsakh more than life and defended his dear mother, old father, wife and children from the war. And the Azerbaijani, who stood on the outskirts of Shush, loved Karabakh more than life and defended his dear mother, old father, wife and children from the war. This is a great, inescapable tragedy of two neighboring peoples.

Now let's look at the Donbass. The Ukrainian soldier also protects from aggression his dear mother, old father, wife and children. But they are not inside the territory, but in free Ukraine, and he stops the enemy at its lines. The Russian mercenary, who believes in Putin and the greatness of the empire, can also consider that it protects from the "fascists" his dear mother, the old man of his father, wife and children. But only all of them behind him, in peaceful Russia. And the population of Donbass? And the population of Donbass is simply waiting for who will win and pay pensions, salaries and social benefits. In the history of the region, the main part of this very population is not involved. Moreover, many free -thinking and just active residents of Donbass simply left - not only, by the way, to Ukraine, but also to Russia too. And they did not leave Karabakh. They fled from Karabakh if ​​others came.

But it cannot be otherwise. Because Karabakh is a country, stones, poured with blood, we and our mountains. And Donbass is just an industrial pool. Industrial pools therefore exist that people from them easily leave when the work ends. And their responsibility for the set of mines, factories and factories do not particularly bother. Of course, the Donbass is also the Earth: I went out into the steppe of Donetsk and so on. But only the earth itself is not visible there - only terrikons. Where Ukrainian villages began, Russian troops, as a rule, stopped.

That is why Vladimir Putin cannot provoke a large Ukrainian destabilization with the help of Donbass - and in all other regions he is not tolerated to the spirit. That is why he could not provoke a large Ukrainian destabilization with the help of Crimea - because Crimea, like Karabakh, is also a country - in the Crimea in the case of active hostilities there would be an ethnic conflict and civil war. The war inside the Crimea, not around it. Putin's destabilization contradicts the fundamental laws of civilization - and largely thanks to this circumstance, the Russian president is doomed to lose.