Translated material
Texas against the Kremlin
It was worth the price of Brent to get closer to $ 50 for a barrel, 100 wells “stood up” in America immediately.
And this is only in one week of February. Whether a wave of bankruptcies in the energy sector is coming or the market will have time to find a way out, which suits everyone, ”the New Times sorted out 
You can understand and sympathize, because this Gentleman known in San Antonio has flourished for the supply of pipes for new oil wells that grew in South Texas as mushrooms after rain. Oil fever at the local deposits came down to a fairly simple scheme: loans, lay down, but put $ 10 million in the "oil industry"-and fate will smile at you in real, in Tehassian.
10 million-the amount according to Texas performances is small, but sufficient to get a license, buy an installation and start drilling at least one well-and get $ 30–40 million in a year, however, were built at a forecast price of $ 100 per barrel-and stuck at a mark of $ 50 for a barrel of “black gold”.
“No, the oil has nothing to do with it,” his dear intermediary explains the oil tycoon. -Mr. N is busy in a men's club: by April, a dozen beauties from San Diego should be taken away and the same from the surroundings for the traditional parade on the occasion of victory in the Mexican War.
But still, what about business?
- Since the beginning of the year, Mr. N did not have a single order! - Robi states mournfully. - But let's better about the people ...
The worse, the more outwardly the life of the oil producing Texas has not changed. Squad south of San Antonio still nods up and down measuredly with their giant beaks. However, the largest operators of the Texas deposits presenting the reports of the last quarter of 2014 for the first time in many years began to declare losses and plans to freeze unprofitable wells. The wave of bankruptcies has not yet been covered by Texas - from significant companies, only QuickSilver has yet announced that in connection with financial difficulties, I intend to apply to the court for bankruptcy protection. In 2013, this American-Canadian company with the head office in Fotr-Urta mined 296 million cubic feet of gas per day per day. However, the ghost of the possible coming mass bankruptcy in the industry was already loosened in the comments of investors.
“I do not undertake to say that the bankruptcy of large oil companies will become a“ catalyst ”to stabilize high oil prices and the starting point for the infusion of investments into the shares of oil companies,” comments on the situation in the Cody Villaord market, an oil expert, an investor and a former hedge-fund owner. “Just bankruptcies in the energy sector are inevitable before it reaches the bottom.”
Paradox: the number of wells developed is reduced before our eyes - in only one week of February, work was suspended by almost 100 wells. At the same time, the volumes of produced oil continue to grow. In March, pumping out oil in the United States will increase by 68 thousand barrels per day by the February daily volume and reach 5 million 583 thousand, the Department of Energy predicts. But in general, during the year, an increase in production will be 7.8 % - mainly due to an increase in volumes in highly reliable areas of oil.
“We do not think that it wisely and carefully increase oil production at low prices. Especially because the cost restoration can occur already in this or next year, ”the president and executive director of EOG Resources Bill Thomas recently warned.
Most oil and gas companies are even such that they managed to get out with profits - such as Apache, squeeze expenses and intend to reduce from 10 to 30 % of personnel, or about 50 thousand people.
To increase the patient either alive or dead financial consultant Robi begins and ends his day by watching the latest financial news. The news is mainly disappointing.
- These Saudis will achieve us! - he grumbles. - The cost of their vertical drilling is a quarter of our horizontal. Oil has not yet stabilized, it is still looking for a mark on which you can catch on.
The scatter of the predictions of oil guru about what will be the price of oil this year is stunning Robi. The well-known Texas oil collar Bun Pikens recently stirred up his mood, promising that within a year-payer the cost of a barrel would return to $ 100. The 86-year-old investor, known for the reduction of the US raw material dependence on OPEC, has seen many rise and downturn of the oil sector on the long century. He remembers the times when the local drillers drove the stickers “Lord, went to us the price of $ 40 per barrel!” - For the market sent them four times less. Paykens believes that Saudi Arabia will be forced to limit the pace of prey-not because it will lose the race to lower with its cost of drilling at a mark of $ 5-6 per barrel, and because the remaining 12 OPEC members will not withstand miserable prices and tremble.
At the peak of Paykens, Citibank predicts a further drop in the oil market to $ 20 per barrel: the “shale revolution” contributed to the overproduction of oil and gas in weak demand. "Be ready for $ 10!" - calls the Columnist of the Bloomberg agency Gary Schilling.
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But they no longer believe in the rainbow or gloomy forecasts in Texas - no one foresaw a year ago that Texas oil would end 2014 at $ 53: Goldman Sachs called 90, Barclays - 97, the international foreign exchange fund with its $ 102 per barrel missed. The mood of the oil workers, of course, was spoiled when the cult investor Warren Buffett dropped his package in the oil and gas giant Exxonmobil, but also the “gurus from Omakh”, as Buffetheus, did not knock them out.
- No one knows anything. The most “successful” forecast was given by Forbes magazine - from 40 to 80 dollars per barrel. For us, this means - either the Slantsy oil industry is alive, or fell into a coma, - Roby Yazvit.
The energy renaissance in Texas believes that only access to the world market can support the oil and gas industry. On the Capitol Hill, a bill awaits the line, which loses all restrictions on the export of raw oil
* * The ban on export from the United States raw oil was adopted in order to ensure energy security after an embargo for the supply of oil for the supply of oil states in 1973 to support Israel in conflict with Syria and Egypt. Then a jump in prices is four times (to today funny $ 12 per barrel) shocked into a shock and led to the closure of the domestic market. . Another bill that ordered the Ministry of Energy to regulate foreign gas supply of liquefied gas within 30 days, was held in January.
Today, oil in America - at least flood: its commercial reserves reached 425.6 million barrels in February, setting a record for the last 80 years. Even at the current price level of about $ 50 per barrel, the volume of American oil exports by 2017 can reach $ 15 billion a year, American experts believe.
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It is expected that the first terminal for sending liquefied gas will be commissioned in Louisian by the end of the year, almost 30 companies have submitted applications for the construction of terminals in the hope of the appetite of Asian markets.
By the way, America expects to dispute the oil and gas monopoly in Russia in Europe. “Texas will still play a role in holding the Kremlin,” the journal The Economist predicts.
Until recently, Moscow considered the possibility of competition with the United States in its field by American bluff. According to forecasts prevailing in the Russian expert community, Americans are unlikely to reach the massive export of shale gas, and if this happens, then only in case of falling domestic consumption. However, consumption did not fall in the United States, but production grew to record heights, and with it the prospects for the export of raw materials. The oil and gas business, despite the drop in prices in 2014, turned out to be the main strategic investor in the United States: 25 top companies invested $ 152 billion in projects of the future.
“There will be no collapse of the shale oil market in the United States” The US oil market was programmed for a long growth: the production of production was incredible, simply explosive, 1 million barrels per day annually. The level of employment - both in the energy sector, and in the production of equipment, and in the service sector - also rose sharply. Now prices rushed down - the bubble is blown away. Many oil companies have gained a lot of debts, because loans in the USA are very cheap. The current situation for American oil producers is stressful. But I would not draw from this far -reaching conclusions: there will be no collapse of the shale oil market in the United States.
Firstly, some of the companies insured themselves for some time from low prices, resorting to hedge
* Headfront is a way to insure yourself from losses in exchange transactions by concluding additional contracts, usually futures, the profit from which compensates for possible losses). . Secondly, companies can sell the land on which oil towers stand-many acquired these plots in the property. In any case, until we observe mass bankruptcy - there are only isolated cases. Closer to summer, probably, large players will begin to absorb small ones. Those who were developing high -cost areas will also leave the market.
The number of drilling plants in the United States falls, but each installation individually increases its effectiveness: oil industry workers choose more productive areas, better monitor the directions of cracks, and so on - the technology is being improved all the time.
When the price of oil (in January 2015, for the first time since April 2009.-NT) in the United States fell below the symbolic level of $ 50 per barrel, there was a real danger of the mass departure of companies from the market. The current level is more gentle: the price of $ 53 will provide stabilization, and according to some forecasts, by the end of the year there will even be a rise. If the prey stabilizes, and the demand will grow, then the excess of oil, which is now in the market, will gradually disappear, and this will give an impetus for rising prices - this is what they think in the OPEC and the American agency of energy information. As a result, by the end of the year, the price will be somewhere between 60 and 70 dollars per barrel. In any case, now large market participants-investment companies and hedge funds-are put on raising.
Photo: Shutterstock, Elena Nikitchenko/TASS