The price of war

Prospects for the clash of Russia and NATO from the point of view of an economist

The war of Russia with NATO is the topic of Russian analysts and propagandists beloved today. The military has their own view to the question "why Russia will lose/win the war with NATO on the battlefield." For an economist, this is primarily a matter of resources that the aspects of a potential confrontation possess. The option of nuclear war will have to be omitted, since its outcome is obvious.

The trump cards in the pocket of the NATO alliance never gathered and did not consider the possibility of war with Russia in any way. Evidence of this is the reduction in the military power of the EU countries in the last two decades-3-10 times in different positions. The United Forces of Great Britain, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, the Baltic states and (to heap) Finland are so compressed that they are inferior to Russian tanks by 6 times, mobile missile units - 6 times, 2 times, armored vehicles - 30 %, fictions - by 20 % (Globalfirepower.com data). The refusal of the North-Atlantic Alliance of the Probled in Poland, the relocation of these forces in the Mediterranean Sea area is another evidence that NATO is not only not preparing for war with Russia, but it is also convinced that Russia is not going to fight with NATO.

What is this conclusion to Brussels based on? Obviously, on considerations of an economic nature.

Europe is the largest importer of Russian natural resources, paying Russia more than $ 200 billion annually. Russia supplies 155 million tons of oil and oil products to Europe - mainly in oil pipelines. This is 40 % of European needs and 28 % of Russian production. And only 3.8 % of world consumption. So, Europe will quickly replace Russian deliveries with diesel from the USA and oil from the Middle East, where excess production is already. As for gas, Europe will be able to replace Russian deliveries by the end of 2016, when, apparently, terminals in Lithuania, Poland and a new terminal in Holland, in Rotterdam will be commissioned.

The costs for Russia but Russia has $ 200 billion (in fact, about $ 300 billion will fall out - Turkey, USA, Ukraine will also stop imports) will have nothing to replace. Instead of 80 % of the income of the federal budget of Russia, excess oil and gas will fall into the storage facilities, and huge amounts of food, medicines, devices, and spare parts will not come to the country-not only because of the lack of currency and obvious arrest of reserves, but also because of transport restrictions (in the event of a war, the Black Sea and Baltic corridors, as the Polish corridor, will be blocked, and most likely, most likely, most likely,, most likely,, most likely, most likely, most likely The United States will introduce an embargo, which will block Pacific deliveries). Product consumption will be forced to fall by 35–40 %; At the same time, since civil aviation will arise (all imported spare parts, from Europe and the United States), more than 50 % of heavy vehicles and some of the commodity trains (there are imported spare parts), a number of regions, primarily Moscow, in 2 months will experience catastrophic problems with food. It is possible that Russian communications satellites will be attacked and refused navigation systems - both GPS and GLONASS.

The above concerns not only a full -scale conflict, but also the adventures of, say, the capture of Latvia. Without even deciding on hostilities, Western countries, of course, organize a trade blockade. You can argue whether China will join it - a precedent of an attack on the country of NATO in history yet. But even without participation in the blockade of China, Russia will lose not only more than 30 % of consumer goods and 40 % of food (this can still be somehow survived), but also more than 70 % of the new industrial equipment, 30 % of the products of the chemical industry, and 20 % of steel volumes. Russian production capacities are loaded, the construction of new ones is a long business (on average from 18 to 48 months), there will be nothing to equip new production capacities - there is no modern equipment in Russia. In connection with the loss of a large share of exports and imports, a wide range of enterprises will stop - oil producing (there is no need to obtain) operating on imported raw materials, trading (trade volumes will fall 2 times), transport (no spare parts), financial (freezing of reserves, a drop in consumption and production will reach the majority of banks), and the service sector. You can very roughly evaluate unemployment after the start of such a blockade at least 30–35 % of labor resources (20–22 million people). The federal budget, 80 % formed by export and import taxes, will be reduced by more than 2 times. An attempt to continue to pay pensions and unemployment benefits (due to printing rubles - so?) Will result in high inflation; The need for products and goods will be higher than steadily decreasing imports - this will lead to a deficit, which, in turn, will spur inflation and appearance (the benefit of many people) of the large -scale black market.

And these are the exercises of the motorized rifle brigade of the Southern Military District, Volgograd Region, January 14, 2015 If tomorrow the war is even worse than a full -fledged global ground operation in Europe. We will not be able to get advantages in the air - NATO in Europe has almost as many aircraft, the air defense systems will be “on their side”, the United States will be ready to put several hundred aircraft fundamentally more perfect in Europe than Russia is in service with Russia. For an attack, according to the rules of military science, a double excess of forces over the enemy forces is necessary. It will require the involvement of at least 1,600,000 soldiers, 5,000 tanks, all (more than 27,000) armored vehicles, 1300 missile systems, which will have to be transferred to at least 2-3 thousand km borders. In green light throughout the way and the ability to use up to 50 % of covered wagons and 80 % of the platforms available in Russia, such a transfer will take at least two months, and the transportation of spare parts, ammunition, fuel and food will require immobilization and priority movement of 20–25 % of the gondola cars, 30–40 % of the park of tanks and 10-15 % of the covered wagons park. If the war happens in spring or summer, then Russia will lose the crop - and this is up to 30 % of food. If in winter, significant interruptions in the supply of energy fuel of large cities throughout the country will begin.

The adventure will turn into rapid hunger, significant interruptions in energy, disorganization of communication systems, stopping transport and controllability collapse. The elites of Siberia, the Far East, the Urals, the Caucasus will turn out to be between the need to save their control over the territories in the conditions of hunger, disorganization and the inability of the center to continue their subsidies. Russian troops will be concentrated in the West, Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states will be separated from Russia - there will be no one to pacify the separatists in the regions. The war will have time to destroy the Russian economy and Russian statehood, without even moving to our territory.

The strategy of the authorities ... in the West understands that Russia had all the possibilities to calmly prepare for a big war - it would be enough to "be friends" with the West, to receive capital and technology from it and in every possible way contribute to the continuing disarmament of European countries, in parallel with the process of "Rascullah" of the Baltic states. Russia has chosen another way: aggressive anti -Western propaganda, inciting wars with its yesterday’s satellites, demonstrative buildups of offensive weapons - it is obvious that such a strategy (if the strategy was at all) - both premature and losing.

The Russian foreign policy strategy clearly consists in conflict with serious opponents, to heat the internal patriotism and unity of the nation with border conflicts with weak, loose neighbors like Ukraine. For Russian society, these conflicts are an indirect blow to NATO and a doping of patriotism. For NATO - local problems between the third world countries, unpleasant, but not dangerous.

Russia can economically afford such wars. The capture of all eastern Ukraine (an area of ​​200 thousand km2, the army up to 160 thousand people), Russia will cost no more than half of the cost of US surgery for the occupation of Iraq (area of ​​437 thousand km2, the army at the time of the invasion is more than 300 thousand people). In addition, the transfer of troops will cost 4-5 times cheaper. It is possible (at the cost of the 2003 campaign for the United States) to evaluate the direct expenses of Russia at $ 25MLD - less than half of the cost of the Olympics in Sochi. As for the post-war expenses for the restoration of infrastructure and social adaptation of residents of the occupied territories, they will amount to no more than $ 60–80 billion per year for 3-4 years. This will, of course, be a tough blow to the budget (almost a third of the federal budget), but in comparison with the costs that the elites will suffer in the event of a change in the regime, these expenses are unlikely to seem excessive to the Russian government.

... and its consequences for the countries of Western Europe, such a policy of Russia may well be profitable. This will allow NATO to strengthen the defense of the eastern border without the risk of being accused of embezzlement of taxpayer money. In the coming years it will be done. The sanctions have already cut off Russia from capital and technologies necessary for building an independent economy. The planned military expenses (equally effective that the rest of the state expenses in Russia), in parallel with the recession caused by the nationalization of capital and the growth of the middle-level level, deprive Russia of the chance of non-infusion, leaving it for no more than 6-7 years of stable existence due to accumulated reserves, even provided the relative increase in oil prices. In these conditions (if power in Russia is not recalled), a large war is quite possible - but definitely not with NATO. And in 6-7 years, it will become impossible with anyone-we will come to the collapse without any war, and NATO will win without a single shot.

Photo: Vitaly Nevar/ITAR-TASS, Dmitry Rogulin/TASS