Putin loses "Latin rhythm"

From Argentina to Nicaragua - Russia friendly regimes in Latin America are going through difficult times

Argentina President Christina Fernandez de Kirschner recently made a traditional annual message to the National Congress. This was a desperate attempt to justify himself before the nation for a policy that brought Argentina into an economic impasse, and its president to trial.

Kristina Kirschner, or as she is called by the name and surname Cfk (by analogy with JFK - John Fitzgerald Kennedy), held two terms in the presidential palace and will not be able to participate in the next presidential election that will be held in the fall. But they already managed to call her “Hugo Chavez in a skirt” - for a slurred policy on the world stage and a populist course within the country. However, the same characteristic may be a compliment in the eyes of Russian sympathizers, Ms. Kirschner: Vladimir Putin is one of the world leaders with whom she developed warm relations in a special way. It was under Kirshner that Argentina passed into the category of “strategic allies” of Russia in Latin America, and from the beginning of last year there were rumors on the agreements reached by both countries on the placement of Russian military bases in Argentina.

Argentina: Iran’s shadow over Casa Rosada

In July last year, Vladimir Putin visited Argentina as part of his continent tour. The special nature of the relationship of Putin-Kirchner and here did not slip away from the press. As the British The Daily Mail wrote, "Putin played on the accordion to the applause and the admired look of Christina." The President of Russia, not without irony, noted the newspaper, "found his Latin rhythm, the couple looked relaxed in the company of each other on an official dinner."

However, on the year CFK is no longer up to the musical impromptu of foreign guests. The Argentina Prosecutor's Office of Christine Kirschner a serious accusation, equivalent to the state treason, the president allegedly prevented the investigation against senior Iranian politicians, who, according to the Argentinean special services, stood behind a large terrorist act in Argentina. This happened in 1994, during the reign in the country of President Carlos Menem. In the Argentinean capital, a car filled with dynamite was blown up, parked at the Jewish Cultural Center building. The center was destroyed almost to the base. 85 people were killed, over 200 was injured. The country's special services saw in the attack a trace that was drawn to Tehran. However, over the past two decades, Buenos Aires failed to achieve the punishment of the perpetrators.

In Argentina, the case was transferred from one to the investigator to another, until, finally, it fell into the hands of the federal prosecutor Alberto Nisman. He, having gathered all the evidence, made an official accusation against former Iranian leaders, including ex-president Hashema Rafsanjani.

But then someone began to methodically insert sticks into the wheels of the justice machine. In 2013, Argentina and Iran signed a memorandum on the expansion of political, diplomatic and economic relations. As the Argentine political scientist Sergio Berenstein noted in a conversation with NT , the rapprochement between Buenos Aires with Tehran occurred "with the filing of Hugo Chavez, who actively established relations with Iran in all areas, including the military." “Kirshner simply succumbed to the persuasion of the Venezuelan populist,” says Berenstein. - Some spheres of trade with Iran really looked promising, for example, export of Argentine soy, while others, on the contrary, were written by water for water. So, Iran promised Argentina large -scale oil supplies, but the Argentinean processing plants could not accept this type of oil. ”

However, no matter how tempting trade preferences look, it is difficult to explain why the Argentine government tried to stop the persecution of Iranian politicians through Interpol and actually took up the concealment of the alleged initiators of the attack.

Meanwhile, the Federal Prosecutor Nissman found out: Kristina Kirchner personally ordered the brakes in the investigation of the terrorist attack in Buenos Aires. On December 19 last year, Nimman was going to speak with the collected testimonies against the President of the Republic before the National Congress of Argentina, but the day before he was found in the bathroom of his apartment with a bullet in his head. During the search, a draft of the decision on the arrest of Kirschner was discovered. However, as officially announced in Buenos Aires, Nisman ... committed himself.

Exactly a month later in the Argentine capital, one of the largest manifestations in the history of the country was held. It was called the “march of silence” in memory of the deceased prosecutor, which, according to 70% of the Argentines, was killed. 400 thousand people under the pouring rain walked along the streets of the Argentinean capital. They had no banners in their hands. They did not shout either slogans or insults to the authorities. People walked silently, under the umbrellas, and the silence in which the march took place made a particularly strong impression on the Argentines.

And a few days before the march, the prosecutor Herardo Pollisite, appointed to the place of Niman, made an official accusation against Kirschner, its foreign minister Eector Timerman and a number of other government officials. All of them are blamed for the fact that they tried to cancel the international order to persecute the Iranians in exchange for trade preferences for Argentina. Speaking to Congress, Kirshner called the accusations against her “shamelessness”, but judging by the reaction in the press, the nation did not hear her.

What is now waiting for the Latin American leader, beloved by Putin? According to the Constitution, while Christina Kirschner remains the mistress of the Presidential Palace of Casa Rosada, she has immunity from judicial persecution. And then?

“If you turn to Argentine history, you will see that the position of former president is not the best post in our country,” explains Gabriel Salvia, head of Cadal (the Center for Democratic Transformations of Latin America). - Nobody loves former presidents in our country, it doesn’t matter if they were dictators or democratically elected leaders. Most of them stretch a train of various kinds of offenses. Most likely, Kirschner will try to fight for the chair of the senator or deputy in order to regain immunity. Only this can save her from judicial persecution. However, now the threat of impeachment hung over it and, under this Damoclam sword, she will spend the rest of her time in the office. ”

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If you turn to Argentine history, you will see that the position of former president is not the best post in our country

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Family

The thousands of march in Buenos Aires was not only an act of solidarity with the dead prosecutor Nisman. The Argentines seemed to be tired of familyism in the presidential palace. Once the Kirshner's couple made a family castle-the husband gave way to his wife in the presidential palace. However, unlike her wife, Christina lost the helm of the Argentinean ship. Since the end of last year, the country has been in a state of technical default for its external obligations. Inflation is up to 40%, over the past five quarters, the Argentina economy is experiencing a decline, unemployment is growing rapidly, and the Argentine peso became a record holder on the rate of falling among the national currencies of Latin America. The Bloomberg agency has just published a list of countries with the most unfavorable economic indicators for 2015: in the first place - Venezuela, in the second - Argentina.

One way or another, one of the most loyal leading ladies in Latin America, which quite clearly supported Russia on the accession of Crimea and has never elevated a voice against Moscow’s intervention in the southeast of Ukraine, will soon get out of the political scene. The situation is just as difficult in other states of the continent that Putin visited last year in addition to Argentina - in Brazil, Nicaragua and Cuba.

Brazil: Petrobras drings the president

At lunch on the opening of the G-20 summit in Australian Brisben (November 15-16, 2014), Vladimir Putin was put at a separate table. Behind him, he was at first in splendid isolation, and then Dilm Russuff President was planted to him by President Brazil. It looked symbolic: two leaders with the worst rating in the Twenty are sitting at the same table.

The level of popularity of Rousseff, which has achieved in November last year a re -election for a second term, fell from 42 to 24%in three months, and this is the lowest rating for approval of the actions of the head of state in Brazil since 1999. The reason is the worsening situation in the Brazilian economy (economic growth last year amounted to only 0.15%), growing inflation and unemployment, and the deterioration of utilities. Brazil seems to have completely lost high socio-economic landmarks, which she was so proud of in the "zero" years. And against this background, a powerful corruption scandal associated with the state oil company Petrobras struck in the country. During large -scale police operations, schemes of money laundering, sales of oil products at artificially overstated prices were identified, with the help of which many years of bribing of senior officials were carried out. Corruption schemes supposedly began to be used back in 2003-2010, when the company was ruled by Dilma Russeff. The walls of the National Congress of the Republic and in the media began to be heard calls for investigation against Rousseff, which could end with the impeachment of the once very popular political figure of Brazil. And although the prospects for the trial against her are foggy, there is a strong weakening of the levocentric ruling party of workers, which, most likely, will lead to the next elections to the victory of the right forces.

Nicaragua: Ortega Channel

President Nicaragua Daniel Ortegi also has a very tense relationship with the nation. Last year, Vladimir Putin suddenly changed the route of his Latin American tour and, heading from Havana to Buenos Aires, landed in Managua. After negotiations with Ortega at the metropolitan airport, it was announced that Russia would build a GLONASS station in Nicaragua. Really, for the sake of this, Putin put his numerous guards on his ears, breaking a schedule of a trip for distant lands?

Independent media immediately suspected something was wrong. A few months later, the details of the visit began to seep. In fact, Putin and Ortega discussed the details of Russia's participation in the construction of the Nicaraguan Canal, designed to become an understudy of Panama. These guesses were confirmed by a visit to Nicaragua in February of this year of Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. During this visit, the parties, in particular, agreed on a simplified manner of entering the Russian Navy’s ships to Nicaraguan ports.

If the Panama channel is completely under the control of the United States, then Nicaraguan, if the project is successful, will be under the control of China, the main contractor of the “construction of the century”, and Russia, which pledged to take the protection of the construction. It was then that the warships of Russia in the ports at the entrance and at the exit from the canal will be needed.

However, having decided to build a channel, the Nicaraguan president entered into an open conflict with a significant part of his own people.

“This pharaoh project will bring the innumerable troubles of Nicaragua itself and many other countries,” says NT Ernesto Cardenal, a priest and poet, from 1979 to 1987, who served as Minister of Culture in the Sandinist government, but then broke with the Ortega brothers. - After all, during the construction of the channel, the Nicaragua Lake will be completely sophisticated, according to which a new artery will pass, and this is the largest drinking water reservoir in all Latin America. We will lose all his unique flora and fauna. 36 towns and numerous villages located along the shores of the lake will lose their livelihood. Hundreds of thousands of people will suffer. In the region there will be an ecological disaster of such a scale, in comparison with which oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 will seem a small incident. ”

Since the mid -last year, numerous protests of peasant communities have been held in the country against the construction project project. The authorities brutally disperse them. “My country is used to the whims of Caudillo and crooks of all stripes,” says NT President of the Nicaraguan Center for Human Rights, Wilm Nunez. - The current repression Ortegs show that he is an ordinary dictator, and nothing more. And although he received from the completely controlled parliament the right to re -elect an unlimited number of times, the Messianic project of the canal undermines the soil under the feet of Ortega and his party - they rapidly lose popularity. ”

Cuba: More and more dollars

To the Cuba authorities, which, it would seem, have achieved his own - the US president intends to restore diplomatic relations with the island and remove the half -century economic embargo - a difficult dilemma was also designated. Last week, about 100 political opponents of the regime were arrested in the country. Tighten repression, Raul Castro makes it clear that, having begun a dialogue with Washington, he does not intend to “trade principles” and does not refuse “revolutionary ideals”. However, it seems that the changes in Cuba are irreversible. In recent days, Havana is visited one after another delegation of American congressmen and senators, who for the first time in half a century have been conducting open press conferences there. In the coming days, Washington will host the second round of negotiations on the exchange of embassies between Cuba and the USA. But at the same time, the liberalization of the walking of the American dollar on the island is going on at all pairs. According to the independent Cuban newspaper 14/Medio, the well-known blogger Joani Sanchez on the island, “will pass very little time and Don Verde (“ Mr. Green ”) will supplant the miserable Kubinsky Pesito, which deviates with a crazy pace, because in its own way it reflects the disrespect of the Cubans.”

One way or another, Raul and Fidel Castro play against time. The first year this year will be 84 years old, the second-89. The former Prime Minister of Spain Jose Maria Asnar recalls that during a meeting with Fidel, which took place back in 1998, he said to the Cuban leader: “If I were president of the United States, I would have canceled an economic embargo against Cuba tomorrow.” "Really?" - exclaimed Fidel. “Yes, Aspard answered. - This is the only way to achieve democratic changes in Cuba. And you could not in any way cope with the consequences of such a decision. ” The Castro-Sr., according to Asnar, sighed heavily and said: "You are right."