Translated material
Breaking mirrors
The Governor of the Vologda Oblast decided to comment on the next revision of the region’s credit rating. "It is obvious that such a behavior of an American company is motivated politically or aimed at lowering the rating of the Russian Federation, its subjects and domestic enterprises. I strongly disagree with the opinion of Moody's Agency!" - said Oleg Kuvshinnikov.
True, it is not very clear why it was so long to wait for such a simple comment - the agency lowered the ratings of 11 Russian regions as early as February 25. One of the Vologda vice-governors, by the way, responded to the event immediately and even found the strength to a reservation.
I believe that the actions of Moody%27S is a more policy ...
- Alexey Kozhevnikov (@investgeneral) February 25, 2015 Although I must admit that if we want stability in the economy and growth, we must seriously revise the approach to the financial sector ..
- Alexey Kozhevnikov (@investgeneral) February 25, 2015It is doubly not clear why it was to pull with a comment, if you look at the grades of Kuvshinnikov’s colleagues. Here, as they say, find ten differences.
“By and large, the rating agencies did a lot of work about the conformity of [Tatarstan] to one or another standards. But now nothing has changed. Only the price of oil has changed, but in order to convey our ratings to“ garbage ” - this is completely wrong. The rating agencies put their estimates themselves - they cannot believe them,” says Tatarstan President Rustam Minnikhanov.
"The decrease in the credit rating of the Krasnodar Territory to the negative - pure politics. I do not see any objective justification of such a decision. And there is an impression that the authors of the rating do not own the economic situation either in Russia or the Krasnodar Territory. But most likely, they simply do not want to see obvious facts," said Kuban governor Tkachev.
"The decrease in the credit rating of our region by Moody's agency after a sovereign rating of Russia was reduced a few days earlier, a completely predictable step. The national bar is reduced, the domino and corporate principle is reduced by the principle of dominoes. This is absolutely normal practice. What is abnormal, it is the political engagement of this reduction as the Minister of Finance. Considering, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, taking into account, given That Moody's is from Boston, the USA, in principle, it is clear where such distortions can come from in the picture of the world, ” I declare T in the government of the Khanty-Mansiysk district.
In fact, it is easy to find arguments to argue with the governors and support them. Here is the most obvious argument against their rhetoric: the total debt of the Russian regions for 2014 increased by 20% and exceeded the mark of two trillion rubles. In conditions when the local tax revenues will only fall, and federal subsidies will not have to be reduced , to improve the financial situation of the regions.
On the other hand, the bankruptcy of the region is something outlandish. Russian laws provide for the introduction of federal administration in the subject of the Federation, but furnish it with such a set of conditions that this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. "It must be borne in mind that most of these debts - budget loans, that is, the regions should be money to the Ministry of Finance. These budget loans are given at minimum interest, but if there are difficulties with payments, it is obvious that the Ministry of Finance will restructure all debts - it simply extends the debt time. So the problem with the defaults of the regions on loans is greatly exaggerated. And, although the debts of the regions have been doubled since then, while time completely confirms its case.
Governors squeamishly turn away from the mirror, which they themselves bought
But the matter, in fact, is not so much about this. Agencies do not work for free and not of good free will - the regions government are paid for ratings. In fact, the governors squeamishly turn away from the mirror, which they themselves bought. The Vologda region, which is curious, is already working with the third agency - Fitch and S&P to the authorities, apparently, have not been spent. Perhaps interest in Moody's against the backdrop of such news will also fade, and not only in Vologda.
This, in turn, is a part of another, much more problem. I work in the provincial press and therefore I will say to say: the provinces are monstrously lacking accurate knowledge about myself. Economic and political knowledge, expressed in numbers. On any election campaign, the first thing that journalists are deprived of are independent sociological surveys. Any sociology comes only from the election headquarters, and it is easy to understand what the price is.
Local divisions of Rosstat can lay out statistics, which is a hundred years at lunch. I was told that in Vologdastat there is no simple mathematical counting of data - it is performed in Moscow. You can forget about professional comments and analysis of the same data. A whole socio-economic institute of the Academy of Sciences works in Vologda, but here's what they forgot to do there-to figure out how to share their work with everyone else.
If the governors for political reasons refuse credit ratings, we will lose one of the small tools for measuring ourselves. We will break one of the small mirrors - but we almost do not have them.
Ivan Belyaev - Vologda journalist
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Ivan Belyaev
Social Networks Editor Radio Liberty