The crisis in the foreign exchange market is over: exporters are no longer required to sell foreign exchange earnings. They have adapted to the floating exchange rate and sell as much as they need.

Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

Exporters have adapted

As a top manager of one of the large exporting companies told RBC, since March the informal requirement for private companies to sell foreign currency earnings on the market has ceased to apply. This information was confirmed by a government source, adding that the Central Bank is now closely monitoring liquidity.

The press service of the Central Bank of RBC reported that the Bank of Russia continues to monitor the foreign exchange assets of exporters. “The situation on the foreign exchange market shows that exporters have largely adapted to the floating exchange rate regime, rhythmically selling foreign exchange earnings and thereby reducing their own foreign exchange risks,” says the commentary prepared by the press service. It also notes that to solve the problem of servicing the external debt of Russian business, the Central Bank provides foreign exchange liquidity on a repayable basis.

“At the end of last year, not only state-owned companies, but also large private exporters received recommendations to sell currency and not make sudden, thoughtless movements in the market,” says the manager of one of the exporting companies: “But no one really kept track of how many dollars you bought or sold.” , the government relied on the conscience of managers and business owners.”

How the market was calmed down

On “Black Tuesday” on December 16, the dollar reached a new historical high, exceeding 80 rubles, and the euro – over 100 rubles. Panic began on the stock exchange, but the Central Bank did not hold back the exchange rate. “We realized that if we intervene now, we will not move to a floating exchange rate. The market had to find equilibrium on its own,” commented the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, on the regulator’s actions.

Exporters had to help the market find balance. On December 16, Putin began calling them personally. “I asked the question: why are you holding back? By the way, I didn’t force them to do anything... He told me: we need to pay off the loans soon,” Putin said at a press conference two days later. - Well, if you scrape by, can you go to the market? I thought about it, and a second later he answered: well, we have three billion dollars in the stash... It’s just one company.”

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Exporters responded to the president quickly and disciplinedly: the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said that the state-owned company is “participating in a positive way in stabilizing the currency system,” and rumors about Rosneft’s involvement in the collapse of the ruble exchange rate are a “provocation.” And in the evening of the same day, a government meeting was held with the participation of First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Nabiullina and the ministers of the financial and economic bloc, following which exporters were called upon to take a “responsible position” in the foreign exchange market.

A few days later, the government issued a directive ordering companies with state participation to bring their net foreign exchange positions to the level of October 1, 2014 by March 1, 2015. In December, Gazprom, Rosneft, Zarubezhneft, AK ALROSA and Kristall received this order.

Activity has decreased

In March, the situation on the foreign exchange market changed significantly, says Sergei Romanchuk, head of the dealing center at Metallinvestbank: “The active phase of putting the balance sheets of exporting companies in order has ended.”

Other market participants are also talking about a decrease in activity in the foreign exchange market. According to Otkrytie trader Sergei Fishgoit, trading volumes in March fell by half compared to February. “On the one hand, the demand for foreign currency has decreased, which indicates a certain stabilization of the market, on the other hand, foreign currency receipts from exporters also decreased by 50%,” he says. According to Fishgoit, the ruble now depends more on the dynamics of oil prices and the general trend of the dollar, which is growing against most currencies of developing countries.
According to Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital, we can now talk about the normalization of the situation in the foreign exchange market. “I think the market started to recover in February,” he says. According to Kuzmin, now the ruble remains relatively stable and even taking into account the decline in oil prices, the national currency is undervalued by 10%.

Exporters got rid of the need to sell foreign exchange earnings