Tragedy and threat

I have never seen myself, one of the owners of the Cafe "Delion", in such a preoccupied, nervous state. And what excited him so much? Incredible: Russian threat to the countries of Eastern Europe! That is, think only: where is Russia and the Baltic, where is the Czech Republic or Poland, and where is the quiet provincial English town on the banks of the La-Channel, a small cafe of the Italian type and the handsome emigrant from Algeria that organizes in it.

In the garden Buzin ... No, I will not continue about Kyiv, because everything is now somehow directly or indirectly connected with Ukraine. Even Buzina, even the Algerians settled in England.

He himself says that friends from Romania and the Czech Republic, who do not sleep at night and tell terrible things about how they are waiting for Russian invasion from day to day and are almost preparing for the partisan war. Is it really necessary to perceive this seriously, it is imposed on your own.

What can I answer him? Does Russia really threaten its neighbors? Or is it a pure bluff? I myself do not know, but it is obvious that Russia likes, I really like that they are afraid of it. For the sake of this fear, Moscow did a lot of things, and sacrificed a lot. Including their well -being and well -being of future generations of their citizens. Is it really so sweet when they are afraid of you (which means they hate you)? It is difficult to understand such a painful feeling. But almost 80 percent of Russians, it seems, is well understood. And they share this feeling.

“A mixture of pity for oneself and arrogant bragging” - this is how one of the most influential journalists in the world, the main economic observer of the Financial Times, Martin Wulf, understands the nature of this strange attitude. For more than twenty years, I have been familiar with Martin and I can testify: he is a real Russophile, a person for whom Russia means a lot. Therefore, he with joy and very personally perceived the prospect of opening Russia to the world, its return to the channel of European civilization. The worse was disappointed for him when this hope died. That is why in one of his articles he called what was happening in Russia over the past year "both a tragedy and a threat at the same time."

I would like to believe that my friend is right, considering Russian leaders absolutely reasonable and rational people. And I'm not sure: the connection of a break and self -confidence is an explosive mixture

In Britain, not only journalists and residents of provincial cities are seriously concerned about what is happening. Defense Minister Michael Fallon believes: there is a “real and actual danger” that Russia will try to destabilize Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Officials of this level, unlike Algerian emigrants, make such statements not on the basis of rumors - as a rule, specific intelligence are behind such words. This means that Fallon has reason to assume: in the Russian departments there are plans to start a "hybrid war" and in the Baltic States according to the Donbass model. These plans, apparently, are still postponed in an unknown box. But, probably, precisely because NATO is taking real steps to protect these countries. It is interesting that on this issue there are no disagreements between the government and the opposition in Britain, although the unanimity between them has recently been a great rarity. But here the shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs Labor Diglas Aleksander confirmed the BBC that he was also experiencing "very real anxiety."

And the Foreign Minister Philip Hammond, speaking the other day at the Royal Institute of International Relations, said: today's Russia "can potentially become the most important threat of our security." The observers grabbed who for what: who for the words "the most important", and who - for "potentially." That is, it may become a threat, but has not yet become.

My old Moscow friend, a wonderful journalist, believes that such a reaction is "overbringing". Russia, they say, acts only within the boundaries of space, which considers the sphere of its interests, but it certainly will not go to the risk of direct armed conflict with the West. I would like to believe that my friend is right, considering Russian leaders absolutely reasonable and rational people. And I'm not sure: the combination of awake and self -confidence is an explosive mixture.

It is significant that one very respected military expert, who in the past, held large posts in the British Navy, Commodor Philip Fikness considers the possibility of a nuclear war with Russia a very real danger . The recipe for the Commodore is as follows: if the West wants to avoid nuclear escalation with Russia, he must make concessions, come to terms with the fact that Putin took Crimea, even with the fact that Russia will break the land corridor through Ukrainian territory to the peninsula. Ukraine must be persuaded to abandon the hopes of joining NATO and agree to the role of the country - the buffer zone. The Commodore recalls: at one time, "the West has learned to live (although not very comfortable) with the Soviet Union - how they get used to coexistence with a paranoia neighbor." At the same time, realizing that this paranoid should not be "annoying without need." The expert also advises to do with Russia.

However, the British leaders are not ready to accept such a recipe, fearing that concessions will only inspire the Kremlin with the idea of the impotence of the West and their own permissiveness. And then the word "potential" before the term "the main threat" will have to be deleted.

Andrey Ostalsky - London political commentator

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office