Mortgage borrowers are set for late payments / E. Egorov / Vedomosti

Overdue mortgage debt for a term of 90 days or more in the first two months of 2015 grew by 16.9% to 53.9 billion rubles with the mortgage portfolio growing by 1.9%, according to data from the collection agency Sequoia Credit Consolidation. Overdue debt grew faster only in 2009: by 25% in January-February.

Compared to the beginning of 2014, the pace has accelerated by 4 times, when debt growth was 3.7% with a portfolio growth of 3.6%. Most of the new debts, as expected, are foreign currency mortgages: overdue payments on foreign currency increased by 37%, and on ruble mortgages by 5.5%.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult for the population to service previously taken loans: salary cuts, rising unemployment, weakening of the ruble, record inflation growth - all these factors have had an impact on the solvency of citizens," lists Sequoia CEO Elena Dokuchaeva. Bankers themselves admit that they are also worried about ruble mortgages.

Foreign currency borrowers will be left with collateral

The Central Bank considers it possible to introduce a temporary moratorium on the forced alienation of real estate of foreign currency mortgage borrowers if this is the only place for living, a source in the government's financial and economic block told Interfax. The regulator sent a corresponding letter to the Ministry of Economic Development. Earlier, deputies introduced a bill to the State Duma proposing not to alienate housing until January 1, 2016.

"The quality of ruble mortgages is still stable - we do not see an increase in delinquencies," agrees VTB 24 Senior Vice President Andrey Osipov, admitting that it will be possible to judge the real level of problem debts in mortgages in 7-8 months. Delinquent debts are growing in foreign currency mortgages - due to the strong devaluation of the ruble, the burden on foreign currency loans has doubled, he says: "In January, delinquencies for a period of 30 days or more on foreign currency mortgages increased from approximately 2 to 7-8%." Some foreign currency borrowers are restructuring their foreign currency loans - the bank offers such borrowers a lower rate (from 11 to 7-8%) and an extension of the loan term. As of February 1, the share of overdue mortgage debt of over 90 days at Bank of Moscow was 0.65% of the mortgage loan portfolio against 0.26% a year earlier, specified Georgy Ter-Aristokesyants, director of the bank's mortgage lending department. He assured that the growth was mainly due to overdue foreign currency mortgages, while for rubles it remains at a low level. A representative of Sberbank assured that debts are growing at the same rate as last year, and did not discuss forecasts.

Osipov does not rule out that the situation with servicing mortgage loans may worsen due to a decrease in real incomes of the population. "Serious layoffs at enterprises have not yet begun, but we expect a number of large employers to switch to a four-day work week and optimize the number of personnel. The income of the self-employed population will also decrease due to economic stagnation and falling demand. In addition, the solvency of borrowers will decrease due to inflation," he points out.

"We take into account the growth of debts on ruble mortgages in one of the forecasts for 2015, but the population is unpredictable. In 2008, citizens behaved more decently towards banks than companies," shares one of the state bankers.

Now, overdue mortgage debt averages about 2% of the mortgage portfolio, meaning the risks have effectively doubled; typically, this figure is less than 1%, says the head of a major Russian bank. “In 2008–2009, there was a sharp drop and an equally sharp jump,” adds a top manager at a top-30 bank. “Despite the mass loss of jobs, people quickly found new ones and returned to the payment schedule.”

"We have not yet reached the bottom of the crisis, the growth of overdue debt will continue," the source of Vedomosti expects. Much will depend on the state and banks, he continues: the government is not yet using the successful mechanisms of past years, and it is unclear why, and banks are not actively offering loan restructuring, although in 2009 all banks offered such a service and thanks to this there are few borrowers with foreign currency mortgages left.

Mortgage defaults are growing faster