About reconciliation around Crimea

Crimea today is not so much the success of Russia as its problem. His annexation destroyed the prospects for preserving the normal relations of Russia and Ukraine and made Kyiv as an ally of any of our opponents for a long time. Crimea blew up the security system in Europe and laid the foundation for the process of creating a new global order, in which Russia will be - despite all the pouting of the cheeks - has not been reserved for the place of honor. And therefore, my conclusion is radically different from the rallies voiced at the March rallies in Moscow and in other cities of Russia: Crimea was not forever in Russia. And, most likely, not even too long. Moreover, I think that the term of the Russian Directorate of Crimea will actually be the shorter, the less “inventive” and agreement our political elite will be. In my opinion, the key to normalizing relations between Moscow and the rest of the world is the beginning of the same “dialogue”, which even the wise Chinese leaders have recently been talking about. This dialogue - in the presence of a certain diplomatic talent - could bring quite good results for Russia. What could he be?

Options of compromise Vladimir Putin in an interview with the film "Crimea. The path to his homeland ”said what he was supposed to say: the Russian armed forces were introduced to the peninsula in order to prevent interethnic conflict and ethnic cleaning. Regardless of how much the above is consistent with reality, this is a typical rhetoric of the “humanitarian intervention”, which in the Kremlin is very un loved. Therefore, Moscow can portray an invasion as a kind of “preventive humanitarian intervention”, putting it on a par with numerous similar actions of Western countries. Of course, the West will answer this that with humanitarian interventions, the territory is not attached to a foreign country “protected” - and they will be right. Hence the search for a compromise.

The simplest scheme looks like this. Russia offers the West to admit its invasion of Crimea by a humanitarian intervention - in exchange, the Kremlin in words expresses the willingness to discuss the status of Crimea, although not now. Based on the theses that have long been formulated in Moscow that Ukraine is “Failed State, controlled by the fascist junta,” the idea that negotiations on the return of Crimea Ukraine are impossible. Moscow does not believe in Kyiv and is not going to believe. At the same time, a “disarm” thesis for the West could be a statement that Russia trusts the EU - as an organization that successfully protects human rights and civil freedoms. The result is a simple maxim: Russia is ready to discuss the return of Crimea to Ukraine as a full member of the European Union. This, in my opinion, is a beautiful formula that simply removes the problem.

The nomination of such a proposal means that Russia has returned to the negotiating table - and therefore requires the refusal of the interpretation of the Crimean operation as annexation, and Moscow as an aggressor. Accordingly, the sanctions will be lifted. At the same time, this approach will cause a powerful activation of Kyiv to join the EU - and will expose the complete reluctance of Europe to accept Ukraine there. You can be sure that Ukraine will not join the EU for at least 20-30 years; Moreover, to torpedoing such a decision, at least one of the EU countries, it means that the consensus will never develop. So the Kremlin will be able to rub their hands, explaining to their fellow citizens how skillfully he “divorced” stupid Europeans.

At the same time, this approach leaves all the possibilities arising from the position of the territory with the transitional status. Since Crimea is today a subsidized territory (with a share of transfers in budget revenues of 82–85 % or 120–150 billion rubles per year), it should be made by a truly free economic zone-not a financial offshore, but a place attracting real investments. Having relyed income tax and reducing VAT on goods sold on the local market to 6–8 %, it is possible to achieve an influx of investment (including foreign) in agriculture, waste processing and desalinization of water, industry and construction. By legalizing European, American and Chinese technical standards, recognizing the relevant certificates and diplomas, you can facilitate the arrival of investors by launching new industries, developing education and healthcare. It is possible, given the relative separation of Crimea from the territory of the rest of Russia, to ensure a visa -free entry for citizens of most countries of the world and the liberal labor market. Finally, for citizens of Russia - residents of Crimea - you can cancel the law on the declaration of dual citizenship or residence permit in foreign countries - as a result, thousands of wealthy Russians will be registered there, which will pay income tax to the local budget. As a result, Crimea could well be turned into a kind of Hong Kong on the Black Sea, which in 10-15 years would become the most prosperous territory in the region.

All these years, the peninsula would develop under Russian jurisdiction, but at the same time would act as a example of how normal managerial practices can change the country's face. And even if you assume the incredible - that in 2030–2035 Ukraine will join the European Union - the most honest referendum held without the participation of “polite people” will certainly demonstrate the desire of residents to preserve the existing regime, and not to fully join the new union, European or Eurasian.

In my opinion, the problem of our politics and our politicians is that they can achieve their goals only by violating the rules and laws, and not using them. And this creates conflicts that can not be noticed for a long time, but which then manifest themselves in its full “splendor”. The United States and European powers did not recognize the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states for 50 years, but it was from this part of the country that its collapse began, since legally its status remained doubtful. Do we want to repeat this experience? It seems that yes - although I would not advise you to take this risk ...

Photo: Gennady Gulyaev/Kommersant