Car loan for half price

In Russia, preferential car loan resumes

From April 1, another state program for stimulating sales of new cars on credit begins in Russia, the volume of which has now declined several times . For the first time, the total interest rate on a car loan is limited if its recipient intends to take advantage of the benefit from the state. But in this case, the buyer of a new car can count on bets that existed in the Russian car loan market in 2013. Then car loans provided more than half of all sales of new cars in the country. Today - about 10%. And most importantly - consumer sentiments are completely different than they were in the year before last.

The size of the benefits for the program, this time that covers new cars worth up to 1 million rubles, will be, as before, 2/3 of the current basic interest rate of the Central Bank. But at the same time, the benefit itself occurs only if the bank offers a car loan to the applicant, the total rate at which does not exceed the rate of the Central Bank (today - 14% per annum) by more than 10 percentage points. Thus, this “ceiling” is 24% per annum. That is, just below the average level for the car loans in those banks that are combined, which, combined, controlled three quarters of this market in Russia, which are now proposed (and sharply rise in price) .

In addition to the interest rate itself, the general consumer moods also affect the car loan market, and the current situation is not the most favorable for the purchase of expensive goods.

According to Frank Research Group marketing studies, which was cited by Kommersant , in February, the range of ruble car loans in 22 Russian banks, which accounted for 74% of the car loan market, amounted to 19% to 31% per annum.

Of the new 24%Limit, we deduct the benefit at the expense of the state budget. It turns out that its applicant can really get a car loan at 14.7% per annum, that is, compared with average, it will cost almost 40% cheaper.

The aim of the program was to restrict the limiting rates on car loans in the country at levels of less than 15%, said Vladimir Bespalov , engineering analyst from VTB Capital Bank, but more interesting proposals for buyers should be expected. First of all, from those banks that were created to serve their own business by industrial groups, in this case, car manufacturers.

If you proceed from the current value of money in the economy or interest on deposits in banks, then a car loan of a car loan of 14.5-15% is quite acceptable, Bespalov continues. “Another thing is that, in addition to the size of the bet itself, general consumer sentiments affect the car loan market, and the current situation is not the most favorable for buying expensive goods, which is the car.”

The planned scale of the program can lead to expanding the share in Russia of current “credit” cars of cars more than doubled.

A survey conducted in February by the National Agency for Financial Research (Nafi) showed that 83% of Russia's residents do not plan to buy a new car. Those who plan it in the next three years turned out to be 14%, and 4%ready to buy a car over the next year. Moreover, if back in 2014, 58% of potential buyers were ready to use car loans, now their share has decreased to 25%.

The take -off rates on car loans in recent months have become one of the main factors of a sharp decline in the entire automobile market of Russia in early 2015 ( according to the European Business Association , 24% in January and 38% in February - RS) , Metropol investment analyst Andrei Rozhkov recalls. He believes that in such conditions, the program of preferential car loan will be successful: if, against the background of bets of 24-30%, it becomes possible to get a car loan of 14-15%, this will become an additional incentive for buyers.

Many of the buyers who use this benefit previously assumed, apparently, to buy a new car without it.

“According to my estimates, at this rate, the total volume of the program of preferential car loan will be selected quite quickly,” Rozhkov continues. “I do not exclude that all the supposedly preferential car loans will be completely in demand by the beginning of the fourth quarter.” The authorities plans to have 200 thousand new cars sold under a new program, designed so far for the period until the end of the year, that is, 8% of all last year's sales in the Russian automobile market.

At first, it was assumed that the first contribution of the buyer, who counts in 2015 for a preferential car loan, should be at least 30% of the cost of the car. This is twice as much as the 2011 and 2013 programs provided, and exactly the same as required by the very first program of preferential lending - in the spring and summer of 2009. However, at the last moment, the authorities decided to choose a certain average level, and reduced the minimum first fee to 20%.

83% of the inhabitants of Russia do not plan to buy a new car.

Of course, for the buyer - the less, the better, Vladimir Bespalov is ironic, however, 30% - quite normal world practice. At the first stage of the new program, the demand for preferential car loans will clearly be high, and in such conditions even a 30%first contribution would hardly have any significant impact on it, Andrei Rozhkov agrees.

The program of preferential lending is aimed primarily at stimulating the demand for cars, and therefore for car loans, while for banks the banks themselves is less interesting, the banking analyst of the international rating agency Standard & Poor's Rybalkin believes.

The problem is that today there are not so many lending to the Russian market of “high -quality” borrowers, and even the presence of a pledge in the case of a car loan (that is, the car itself) does not solve it.

“The new benefit, of course, will allow banks to slightly expand customer lending, since the total cost of the car loan is reduced, which means that the credit“ quality ”of these clients is somehow increased,” Rybalkin continues. “However, in general, the current offer, including the proposal of loans, this is unlikely to significantly affect.”

At the end of March, the Austrian bank Raiffeisen stopped issuing car loans in Russia. This segment demonstrates the worst dynamics in the market as a whole, one of its regional leaders said.

If, against the background of bets of 24-30%, it becomes possible to get a car loan of 14-15%, this will become an additional incentive for buyers.

It is not so simple to evaluate the effect of the program of the program separately, Vladimir Bespalov adds: after all, many of the buyers who use this benefit, apparently, apparently, to buy a new car without it. “Therefore, it seems to me, the result of the program can be the sale of 20-40 thousand new cars-in excess of what can be sold without it.”

The planned scales of the program (200 thousand new cars) can lead to expanding the share in Russia of current “credit” cars of cars more than double, says Andrei Rozhkov. If at the beginning of 2015 only about 10% of all new cars were sold on credit, then by the end of the year, thanks to the program, this share can grow to 25-30% - depending on the total macroeconomic situation in the second half of the year.

“Based on such assessments, we can assume a noticeable improvement in the total total volume of cars in Russia in 2015,” Rozhkov continues. “If today their decline is evaluated in the range of 24-50%, then as the program of preferential lending, these forecasts can be adjusted-a decline, but in the range of 20-30%.”