Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave on April 10

The rush demand for foreign currency in the fall of 2014 actually forced the Bank of Russia to switch to free exchange rate setting. The $30 billion he sold from foreign exchange reserves in October did not bring stability to the market. Therefore, in early November, the Central Bank limited daily foreign exchange interventions to $350 million, and then completely abandoned regular interventions. Now the Bank of Russia influences the appetites of currency players with interest rates on numerous instruments, including currency swap and repo transactions. In addition, in cases of “a threat to financial stability”, the Central Bank resorts to unscheduled foreign exchange interventions. In such conditions, the volatility of exchange rates increases sharply. Therefore, their successful forecasting increases the investor’s income. Is it worth buying a currency now or can you wait, what has a greater impact on exchange rates - foreign policy or the domestic economy, where will the dollar and euro exchange rates go? “Kommersant” continues to publish the opinions of analysts of the largest banks.

Vasily Alexandrov, director of treasury at Soyuz Bank:
Despite the inability of oil to gain a foothold above $60 in Brent, we expect the ruble to continue to strengthen to 51.00 - 51.50 rubles per dollar, due to the excess supply of currency on the market over demand. We believe that by the end of the month it is likely that the ruble exchange rate will continue to strengthen to the level of 49-50 rubles per dollar.

Ivan Fomenko, head of the trust management department of Absolut Bank:
The ruble continues to strengthen almost unhindered against both the dollar and the euro. The reasons for this growth are very vague. Most likely, we are now seeing an active exit from speculatively formed positions at a level above 60 rubles per dollar. It is also worth noting that if Friday’s close is below the level of 52 rubles per dollar, then stop losses will be triggered and short-term speculative positions will be liquidated. The second point that may influence the dynamics of the Russian currency, especially in the current situation, is the expectation of a rate reduction and, along with it, an increase in long positions in Russian debt instruments, especially long-term ones. Their purchase requires the purchase of rubles, which may be in slight deficit as a result of the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. This demand is supported by the latest results of public debt auctions. In the short term, some strengthening of the ruble is possible up to levels of 45-48 rubles per dollar. We estimate the probability of this event at 15%. However, in the long term, we expect a strong weakening to levels of 61-66 rubles per dollar, which could happen by the end of the second to the middle of the third quarter. Expected trading range for Friday: 52-53 rubles/$, 55.50-56.50 rubles/€.

Alexey Egorov, leading analyst at Promsvyazbank:
The ruble continues to demonstrate strengthening positions, ignoring negative signals from commodity markets. Companies and banks, which have been actively gaining currency positions throughout 2014, are increasingly getting involved in currency sales. In addition, the continued rally in the local debt market may increase the influx of foreign currency from non-residents, which will support the national currency. We believe that with the current trend, the dollar exchange rate can test the level of 50-51 rubles. in the short term. However, the risks of correction continue to increase.

Denis Davydov, chief analyst at Nordea Bank:
Another day of growth and new highs for the year, the ruble remains optimistic. On Thursday, the Russian currency was partially supported by a correction in oil prices, which were able to recover somewhat after a 5% decline the day before. At the same time, technical factors worked in favor of the ruble, but the level of 52 for the dollar/ruble pair remains unreached. In the coming days, in the absence of additional positive signals, the ruble will most likely remain at 52-56 against the dollar, however, if oil “shoots up,” then an attempt to pass the 50 mark cannot be ruled out.

Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate as of April 10

banksDollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$)

Credit Suisse	55.00
UniCredit Bank	57.00-59.00
Promsvyazbank	55.00
Bank "Soyuz"	55.00
Nordea Bank	55.00-60.00
Globex Bank	56.50-58.00
Bank Zenith	58.00
Bank opening	56.50
Absolut Bank	56.00-58.00
JSCB "Russian Capital"	56.00-57.00
consensus forecast	56.58

The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts

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