"The Cubans lost fear"

The “highlight” of the next summit of America - the forum of the leaders of the states of the Western Hemisphere on April 10-11 in Panama - was the meeting of Barack Obama and Raul Castro awaited by everyone. After 50 years of mutual enmity, the relations of the United States and Cuba enter the new phase. What to expect from the change of milestones and whether there is a real alternative to the Castro Brothers-The New Times was said on the island by the famous Cuban PolitMigrant Juan Juan Almeida

Barack Obama and Raul Castro: handshake before the start of the Summit "America". Panama City, April 10, 2015

Juan Juan Almeida

48-year-old Juan Almeida is the author of the book “Memoirs of the Unknown Gerillero” about the life of the Cuban elite. He enters the cohort of people who are called "children of revolution" in Cuba. His father, commandant, Juan Almeida Bosk, the former closest associate of the Castro brothers since the rebel struggle, was the vice president of the Cuban State Council, a third person in the Cuban hierarchy. He died in 2009 at the age of 82. The birth of his son Fidel Castro, the nation from Almeida, was the time of a multi -thousandth rally on the Revolution Square. Almeida Jr. was present at the table during negotiations with the Peruvian leader Velasco Alvarado, and the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev gave him a bicycle during a visit to Cuba. However, becoming an adult, Juan Juan Almeida broke with a regime. Cuba’s special services detained him many times and interrogated him. For several years, he, suffering from a rare disease that cannot be cured in a cube, sought to leave the island. The authorities allowed him to do this only in 2011, after he spent a many-month hunger strike. Now Juan Juan Almeida lives in Miami.

The world media publish photos of ordinary Cubans dressed in T -shirts with the image of the American flag. It seems that the whole island is covered by euphoria about the "new course" of the USA * ** On the change in the strategic course in relation to Cuba, including the restoration of diplomatic agents and the proposal to Congress to cancel the embargo against the island, Barack Obama announced on December 17, 2014. . However, nothing is changing in Cuba itself-opponents of the regime are still arrested and put in prisons, and the situation in the economy is worsening ... * I studied in the USSR in the era of Gorbachev perestroika. Now Cuba is experiencing something similar. We are present under a certain historical intrigue as the USSR and the USA before the first meeting of Gorbachev and Reagan in 1985. Some Cubans are optimistic, believing that it will no longer be worse. Others believe that since Cuba continues to violate human rights, a full -fledged resumption of diplomatic agents and the removal of the economic embargo from the United States is still impossible.

Any changes are already felt? Certainly. Cuba has already been frequent by high-ranking or eminent Americans-congressmen, senators, governors, Hollywood stars-just some guests. They openly hold a press conference in Havana-the current generation of Cubans does not remember such a generation. For many, this is an important symptom of something new, with which, they say, prosperity and prosperity will come to the island, you just need to wait. In reality, in the near future, the Cuban economy awaits even more difficult times than now. Venezuela, the main Kubinsky benefactor, halved oil supplies to the island (from 100 to 55 thousand barrels per day. - NT ). Brazil, which was about to help Cuba with the project to create a free economic zone in the Cuban port of Mariel, on which Raul Castro made a special bet. But the drop in energy prices sharply narrowed the possibilities of Brazil on the implementation of many international agreements, including Megaproject Mariel.

Cuban oppositionists believe that even if America removes the embargo, it will benefit from this first of all the Cuban elite ... Cuban leaders always burst from delicacies, even in the early 90s, when Russia stopped maintaining Cuba. Whereas for the “breakfast” in children of ordinary Cubans, before they went to school, there was a glass of water with a piece of sugar at that time. Engineers, doctors and even athletes were forced to ask for alms on the streets. If America removes the embargo, then, of course, this will use this, first of all, the elite, accustomed to living in luxury. On the other hand, full -fledged trade and normal diplomitions with the United States will give certain benefits and the emerging private sector in Cuba, intellectuals, and representatives of creative professions. Under only one condition - external normalization should be accompanied by real internal reforms.

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The clan economy when Fidel, certain sectors of the economy, were solely ruled by Cuba, of course, the military was completely under the control of the military, and they brought income even in the most difficult times. And how now? Fidel actually retired back in 2008 (formally-in 2011- NT ). There were several elite clans, which not only took from the military, but took control of the entire economy, as well as political institutions and social infrastructure of the country. Of course, the most powerful clan has Raul Castro and several of his proxies from among the generals. Moreover, the most active role in the clan’s affairs is played by members of the Raul family - the son of Alejandro Castro Espin and son -in -law Luis Alberto Rodriguez, the husband of the eldest daughter of Raul - he, by the way, is also the main “watching” of Cuba with Venezuela. In particular, the clan belongs to the multidisciplinary holding Grupo de Administracion Empressarial (GAE), which includes the company Gaviota ("Seagull") - it owns most of the country's hotels, almost all courts of civil aviation and the trade sea fleet, is engaged in the sale of highly orating real estate. It is clear that we are talking about practically all areas that bring Cuba income in solid currency. It is impossible to name the exact figures for the GAE turnover - all the statistics regarding its activity are classified.

You mentioned the son of Raul Castro - Alejandro Castro Espin. They say that the real power in the country is in his hands, and the official successor of Raul, the second person in the government Miguel Dias-Kanel is so, for a look. Yes, according to the Constitution, if the leader cannot manage the country, for health reasons, his “first deputy” replaces him. So it was 4 years ago, when Fidel was replaced on the captain's bridge Raul. So, perhaps, it will happen in 2016, when Dias-Kanel will be elected by the president at the next congress of the Communist Party. However, I am sure: this will be the last successor in Cuban history.

Alejandro, the son of Raul, is smart, reasonable, and he, of course, has extensive power ambitions. However, the daughter of Raul Mariela, and his son -in -law, and other people from the "family" have the same ambitions. In addition, it should be borne in mind that Alejandro has no influence on the army elite, nor on the old generation that fought in the mountains of the Sierra Maestra, nor the middle that passed through the wars in Nicaragua, Ethiopia and Angola. By the way, Alejandro Castro himself visited Angola, but his military “exploits” ended after he had an accident during rifle exercises near Luanda and he was immediately recalled to his homeland. True, this did not prevent the government from rewarding it with the order - supposedly for the injury in battles. In general, Alejandro is not popular in the country, it is influential exactly until Raul is alive.

But there are also children of Fidel Castro. What is this clan? In the children of Fidel (according to official figures, their seven - one, Fidel Castro Diaz, was born before the revolution, and in five others, the names begin on “A” - Alehandro, Alexander, Antonio, Alex, Alina, Angelita. - NT ) There are no political ambitions. They do not really get along with the children of Raul and, according to business qualities, cannot compete with them. Children of Fidel are purely decorative figures. Their destiny is to be photographed with visiting celebrities, such as Paris Hilton and Naomi Campbell, who recently came to Cuba. Of course, they have a certain power, but it serves only to protect them themselves, and not to manage others.

* Corruption barrier * will it be possible to restore the social world in Cuba after the authorities have been setting “revolutionary” citizens on dissidents for decades? Of course, it is difficult to forget the so -called “rejection rallies” (mass protests against the activities of dissenters who periodically arranged Cuban revolutionary authorities.

Nt ). This is a very dirty and sad imprint in Cuban history. I myself at one time underwent a persecution from the side of my neighboring quarter, despite my loud surname. On the other hand, this is supposedly ideological intransigence between Cubans, division into ours and “not ours” - to a large extent a myth. The same, by the way, applies to relations between the inhabitants of the island and Cuban emigrants in the United States. After democracy is restored in Cuba, the process of reuniting families will pass painlessly - I am sure of this. Already now, people from Miami come to Cuba, meet, hug with their relatives, as if nothing had happened.

But after all, there is also the problem of the confiscated property of the property of Cubans and US citizens. American experts are already alarming: how to solve it? Listen, many European countries quickly and successfully solved this problem through the restoration mechanism. No, the main difficulty is now different - in the eradication of large -scale corruption and social degradation. Indeed, in Cuba, they are now respected not the one who works, but the one who steals. Organized criminal groups are created on the island-as in Russia in the early 90s. A black weapon market is growing, on which a 9-mm Magnum can be purchased for 300 “cukes” (CUC-the official term-the Cuban peso converted to dollars, like checks that allowed the USSR to make purchases in the Birch store.- NT ). Owners of private restaurants, night retail outlets hire sambists and judokas to serve them, as you say, a “roof”. Drug trafficking is growing rapidly: a gram of cocaine is in Havana 100 cukes, hash from 12 to 35, marijuana from 120 to 300. Now the cube in all pairs does not go to a democratic, but to a criminal state.

The famous Cuban blogger Joani Sanchez says that his Majesty Don Green (dollar) will sweep away the national currency -
Kubinsky peso ... for all the importance of financial and economic factors, in my opinion, the deepest changes will occur in Cuba at the level of human consciousness. I am conducting a daily program on Radio Marty (radio station in Miami. -

) And I constantly talk with the Cubans living on the island - journalists, householders, athletes, musicians, private entrepreneurs. And I see: my country is changing. In people, despite the fact that the island is still ruled by the dictatorship, fear has disappeared, there is no rejection of the “consumer society” and “American imperialism”. Despite all the negative of the current transition period, most Cubans began to appreciate the interests of the individual, the family, and not the bureaucratic “class state”. This, by the way, is a considerable merit of the Cuban Catholic Church. People gradually come into the light of delusional ideological fog, in which they were held for more than half a century.

Photo: Gary Yim/Shutterstock.com, Reuters/Panama Presidence/Handout Via Reuters