CJSC "Russia"

1.5 trillion rubles - so many authorities are going to spend in 5 years to turn the Russian economy into a closed fortress

On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation published its plans for import substitution in Russian industry. Until 2020, the economy should learn to fully or largely produce goods that are now purchased abroad. The plan covers 2059 projects in 19 industries and will cost about 1.5 trillion rubles, of which 235 billion rubles. - Budget money, and the rest are private or borrowed.

The plan unites the positions “critical for the economic security” of the country, therefore, for most of them, the share of imports is 100 % (for example, in almost all positions in electronics). But there were some basic goods with dozens of imports that are especially important for the national economy (as a stainless variety rental with a share of imports 33 %).

The goals of replacing imports with their own counterparts are also very different. So, the agency expects that in 5 years our country will produce 70–80 % of automatic transmissions for cars produced inside the country (now 100 % is imported). A non -existent student tablet on a domestic processor by 2019 should occupy 2 % of the mass market and 12 % of the market in the public sector. The share of the Russian Federation in the above box office should grow from 67 % to 82 % to 2020.

Fund for industry development will be financed. If a businessman wants to make an analogue of an imported product included in the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the plan, he can apply to the fund and, after expert estimates by experts, receive a loan on preferential conditions - 5 % per annum against markets 16 % on average for industry.

Initially, the department developed an even more detailed document. This list, sent to the regions in January, totaled 4,000 positions - from cotton and tin to pumps and supercomputers. It gave not only the names of the current Western suppliers, but also their Asian competitors. Thus, the Chinese CNPC and CNLC were called the alternative to the exploration equipment of the Western Sondex and Halliburton.

For example, gas turbines that are needed to generate electricity from natural gas have not been done in Russia . Now 300 MW turbines can be bought from German Siemens and the American GE - world market leaders in this area. To ensure its needs, Russia is needed until 2020 Three such turbines. But what will happen if Germany and the United States introduce an embargo on them? We are now producing small turbines (up to 100 MW), this means that nine Russian ones will have to be put on a power station instead of three Simeshous units. The turbine in length is about 10 m, and nine turbines, instead of three, will most likely cost more, require a larger premises, which will increase overhead costs, raise the cost of electricity and goods produced using this energy, and ultimately lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of the Russian economy. According to the Ministry of Industry, it will not be possible to establish the production of 300-megavat turbines in the next five years, but by 2017 the Russian NPO Saturn and OJSC Power Machines will be able to produce gas turbine units with a capacity of up to 200 MW. The costs are not given, but it is indicated that the share of imports must be reduced from 100 % to 44 %.

We are accustomed to increasing from Soviet times that in Russian bowels there is almost the entire Mendeleev table, and by something, and God has not offended us with natural resources. In fact, titanium ore and concentrates that Russia consumes are only 5 % domestic, and the rest will be imported. According to tin - 30 %, beryllia - 20 %, and rare earth metals are not produced at all. “Rare Lands” are used in many high -tech devices from turbines to TVs. Without them, it is impossible to create modern sensory screens using multitach technology. In other words, the hypothetical Russian tablet will be able to respond to pressing with one finger, but the user will no longer be able to reduce the size of the picture, habitually reducing two fingers.

And domestic planes were not quite domestic. So, in the widely advertised liner “Sukhoi Superjet” (SSJ-100), which should solve the problem of medium-range flights, domestic manufacturers participate in the creation of the engine (a joint venture with the French), and also make a fuselage and wings. The interior is already foreign, although we can also do it. But the rest - including the fuel system and the entire electronics - is produced in the USA and France, and the creation of analogues can be established only by 2020.

Increase an example from chemistry. Toluylandiazocyanate - a substance without which polyurethane foam, necessary almost everywhere is foam, stuffing seats, insulation of pipelines, mounting foam, sponge, filters, etc. So, this chemical product is 100 % imported from Germany, Hungary and France. According to the document of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the creation of production in Russia, which would close the need for this very Toluylandiazocyanate, is impossible until 2020. If the sanctions are tightened, it will have to be bought in South Korea or China. Of course, “if tomorrow is a war” and the enemy is at the gate, then you can live for half a year without foam rubber, and fill the “Lada Kalina” seat with cotton wool (which, by the way, comes from Ukraine by 39 %). Then the Chinese suppliers will be pulled up, but, as is usually the case in such cases, they will raise prices for Toluylandiazocyanate, and the polyurethane foam, and then all the goods containing it, for example, the same cars and furniture, will rise in price.

New state plan? In March 2015, researchers at the Gaidar Institute asked the Russian business the question of what prevents them from buying domestic. 62 % of the industrial enterprises surveyed said that they could not go to Russian analogues instead of imported equipment and raw materials, which is used now, they simply do not. Another 35 % of respondents said that domestic equipment and raw materials have low quality.

“This does not mean that enterprises will not be able to replace all the imports purchased by them, but the scale of this restriction (i.e., the scale of the absence of analogues in the Russian Federation - NT ) is so large that they will critically affect costs, and therefore at vacation prices, demand and volume of release,” commented the survey, the head of the laboratory of the Institute, Sergei Tsukhlo. Simply put, if the Russian economy returns to the autonomous existence in the image and likeness of the USSR, then part of the goods will be replaced with Russian counterparts. Here are just their quality ... What will be such import substitution, it is easy not to understand not even a specialist - imagine that in Russia cars from the USA, Europe and Japan will stop selling, and only “Lada”, “Koreans” and “Chinese” will remain in the market.

Documents of the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not affect the military sphere, but it is known that Russian military aircraft use imported electronics, and GLONASS satellites are foreign microcircuits with increased resistance to cosmic radiation. Import substitution in the current situation is possible in the defense industry, and this is a direct responsibility of the state, said Oleg Buklevshev, an assistant professor of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, and the market will regulate the release of domestic analogues of civilian products. He notices that the economy is collapsed, the country's budget is constantly being reviewed, so there are no guarantees that the money promised to import substitution will actually be allocated.

According to the calculations of the Deputy Director of the Institute of Development at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) Valery Mironov, only for subsidizing the rates on loans to industrial enterprises will require 90-100 billion rubles. And the industry development fund has been transferred so far about 20 billion rubles.

The government, apparently, also understands that to regulate the economy in two thousand positions is an unbearable task both in complexity and money. “This is rather the allocation of directions that the Ministry of Industry and Trade, together with the business, defined as important. This does not mean that each of these positions will turn into a project, ”explained NT deputy chairman of the VEB, until 2014, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Andrei Klepach. He calls the list of the Ministry of Industry and Trade “database” and “issuing signals”. Enterprises will declare their desire to receive support, the authorities will give money to one of them, but this cannot be called a new state plan. “The state cannot finance all directions,” and the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles voiced by the Ministry of Industry andly the amount of import substitution “does not mean that so many projects for such an amount will be implemented”.

The fruits of the bureaucracy so, Russia depends on imports. But the West depends on Russian exports, albeit to a much lesser extent. And this is not only oil and gas, but for example - the delivery of astronauts to the International Space Station, Software for NGINX servers, Kaspersky antivirus, simulators for the preparation of sailors, which are produced by the transas, and IPG Photonics fiber lasers, one of the departments of which is located in Fryazino.

In principle, nothing exceptional is that Russian goods are made of imported components, for example, Apple also collects phones in China. In the XXI century, almost any product is too complicated so that until the last screw and microcircuits are produced in one country. Of course, in the event of a full -scale Cold War, the West will lose our spacecraft, and Russia will cross the “Audi” to “Lada” and begin to import high -precision machines with smuggling, as was done in the USSR, but so far no one is seriously considering such a scenario.

Whether the state should help its manufacturers or the market will solve everything - there is no consent on this issue among economists, but the government seems to understand that it is impossible to create the whole range of goods behind the iron curtain. The program of the Ministry of Industry and Trade - despite the voiced huge numbers of potential investments and hundreds of points - if you look closely at it, involves very modest support for the domestic manufacturer. After all, as experts said above, the budget is unlikely to find money for all projects. The Industry Development Fund has so far received only 20 billion rubles.

Why, then, the government was generally concerned about the creation of such a volumetric plan, if it is obviously not fully implemented? In part, these are “signals to business”, as Cleepach says. Perhaps the country's political leadership could require import substitution, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade - even realizing that, with the current decline, the economy is unrealistic to fully fulfill the task - he simply fulfilled the order. Thus, the director of the Center for Conjunctural Studies of the Institute of Statistical Research and Knowledge of the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovich, who previously worked in the State Statistics Committee of the USSR and the analytical center under the Government of the Russian Federation, sees bureaucratic logic.

Such a document can be used for pressure on Western business, which import substitution threatens the loss of the Russian market - the business will surely ask for its governments to cancel the sanctions. Andrei Klepach, in a conversation with NT , said that the main goal of the document is not so much independence and non-sufficiency (although they are also important) as “the creation of markets for domestic products”.

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