VEB predicted the drop in Russia's GDP in 2015 by 4.7%

Vnesheconombank (VEB) predicts the drop in Russia's GDP in 2015 by 4.7% at an average annual price for a barrel of oil $ 50, inflation may amount to 12%. This is stated in the analytical material of VEB with the forecast of the country's economic development for 2015-2018.

In the state corporations, the current economic situation of Russia is characterized as a crisis caused by external shocks - a drop in oil prices and sanctions, which sharply worsened access to world capital markets.

According to VEB's basic scenario, the budget deficit in 2015 will be 3.5% of GDP and 2.4–2.6% in 2016-2017. At the same time, the Central Bank will probably gradually reduce the key rate, the document says. The export of capital in four years is predicted at $ 260 billion.

The second scenario is repelled from the average annual oil price $ 55–57 per barrel this year, as well as a more active reduction in the key rate by the regulator. In it, the VEB predicts a budget deficit at the level of 3.1% of GDP in 2015, and in 2016 and 2017-1.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

The VEB also expects a decrease in real wages by 9.5% and a reduction in investment demand by 28%. On average, consumer prices can increase by 16.1%per year, the forecast notes. At the same time, the level of salaries in the budget sector will increase in nominal terms by 2.4%, in corporate - by 6.2%.

Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predicted the decline in the Russian GDP in 2015 by 2.5%, and in 2016-an economic growth of 2.8%. Inflation, according to the forecast of the department, will be 12.5%.