Dialogue with a loop on the neck

This is what your humble servant spoke about fifteen years ago about the state of the minds of a person who spaces himself as a "Russian foreign policy". In general, all Russian Eurasianism is ideologically secondary, is a function of resentment to the West and performs the role of psychological laying on the Russian elite on the critical days of its relationship with the West. All these motifs are perfectly articulated in the famous Blok's poem. A passionate explanation for love for Europe at the slightest doubt about reciprocity is replaced by the menacing: "And if not, we have nothing to lose, and we are accessible to treachery ... We will turn to you our Asian mug."

What does China, India, Serbian brother, Iraqi or North Korean dictators have to do with it? All this is nothing more than momentary reasons necessary for the suffering manic-depressive syndrome of the Russian "elite" to clarify relations with the ever-hated and forever beloved West. Not to a random drinking companion, but an existential Russian question is addressed to the heaven of the West: "Do you respect me?" There is no answer.

By the way, the Chinese understand all this perfectly and therefore relate to Russian sporadic flirting skeptical, with an inevitable dose of condescending and arrogant contempt. You can, of course, for tactical considerations for some time to denote false attachment, but the lesson is quite tiring.

China is a cat that has been walking in itself for several millennia, a self -sufficient power, with any complexes, unlike the Russian political "elite", which does not suffer in any strategic partnership with Russia, especially on an anti -American basis, which does not need. If these pale -faced northern barbarians, which at one time imposed unjust agreements, for some reason attach such a meaning to papers about strategic partnership and multipolarity, then for the sake of uninterrupted supplies of Russian raw materials and Russian weapons, these papers can be signed.

But relations with the United States, the main economic partner and political rival, for China is much more important than relations with Russia. By building them, Beijing will be guided by anything, but not by the complexes of Russian politicians who dream of exclaiming: "1.5 billion people with great China!" - And to threaten a dry fist of America from a Chinese wagon. But, it seems, they are not very taken to this convoy of the Kremlin oil and gas traders.

But what was said ten years ago . Confrontation with the West and the course on "Strategic Partnership" and the coalition with China inevitably lead not only to the marginalization of Russia, but also to the subordination of its strategic interests in China and to the loss of control over the Far East and Siberia - first De Facto, and then De Jure .

China is a cat that has been walking in itself for several millennia, a self -sufficient power, unlike the Russian political "elite", which does not suffer and in any strategic partnership with Russia, especially on an anti -American basis, which does not need

The “great chance for Russia” called this national betrayal Alexander Dugin, one of our prominent aziopes. With pride in domestic history, he stated in his fateful manifesto "Eurasia Uber Alles": "In the 16th century, Moscow accepted the baton of Eurasian imperial construction from the Tatars." Well, the Asiopes of Muscovy diligently carried this baton through worlds and centuries. But if they, like Mr. Dugin, really believe that the aziopia is Uber Alles, then they should understand: the relay of imperial buildings not only accept, but also convey; Five centuries are a pretty decent term, and in the 21st century it is time to take this baton to a historically more promising imperial builder - the Middle Empire.

The Holy Aziopian Union of Emperors is a partnership of rabbit and boaver. We simply did not notice how, desperately trying to collect at least some vassals in the "our neighboring abroad", we ourselves are already turning into the near abroad of China. "Panmongolism is even wild, but it caresses us."

Years passed. The severe mental illness of Russia has markedly progressed. "Resentment to the West", "Confrontation with the West" grew into a full-scale hybrid war with the decadent Anglo-Saxon world. It's time to evaluate how much the forecasts of Eurasian fantasies have come true. A great opportunity for such an analysis is given by the newly emerged document " Russian-Chinese dialogue: model of 2015 ", prepared by the Russian Council for International Affairs together with the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of International Studies of the University of Fudan. Leading Russian and Chinese conventional experts present the results of analytical monitoring of key processes in bilateral relations.

The report is joint, but it - with the exception of the introduction and conclusion - is indeed built in the form of a dialogue: in each chapter, a separately Russian and Chinese assessments are given. It is this stereoscopic prospect that makes the report much more informative than the joint statements of the heads of state signed on summites.

However, as you yourself can verify, the Russian side during the dialogue all the time tries to stand on tiptoe and reach the style of the pathos declarations of two high contracting parties. And the Chinese side politely, but consistently indicates its youngest partner to its rightful place.

Let's start with the first section "Russian-Chinese global and regional interaction." With timid hope, the Russian side throws its first trial ball: “ In the“ joint statement ”, which V.V. Putin and Xi Jinping was accepted in Shanghai, the elements of the agreement on the military-political union, however, without its legal registration, are visible .” Chinese comrades respond with cold and condescending renovation: “ In theoretically, some Chinese experts allow the possibility of forming the Russian-Chinese Union, however, in the existing international political context, the realities of the relations of Moscow and Beijing reflects the principle of non-alignment. In other words, Russia and China must comply with this principle. Creating a military-political union is inappropriate, as this may be accompanied by high costs and risks The military-political union involves the creation of a united front of politics and security, the provision of mutual support in the event of war.

The discouraged Russians are trying to come from another side, advertising themselves as a mighty rear of the Middle Empire, distracting her enemies with his daring allied signs: “ Strengthening the confrontation between Russia and NATO complicates the continuation of the American strategy of the Asian Up.” Washington is forced to again concentrate on the European direction, strengthen the military-technical infrastructure of NATO Near the Russian borders, being distracted from the strategic task of the military-political deterrence of the PRC in the Asia-Pacific region.

But this time, the Chinese indicate the true place of Russia is already almost disgusting: “Beijing and Washington can completely avoid confrontation and conflicts, effectively monitor possible crises. The China and the United States have no reasons for clashes. Both countries have responsible for maintaining international and regional stability. Their relations of cooperation and competition will create a dynamic balance and lead to exciting development. Relations of China, Russia, Russia. And the United States is a triangle in which each country plays an independent role after the Ukrainian crisis of Russia.

But you will leave us at least our beloved sandbox of the EAEU and do not crush it with your great silk way? -Russian partners are trying to bargain in desperation: “ An attempt to bring three neighboring projects closer to the Russian-Chinese coordination of interests in Eurasia-the Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SHOS) and the Chinese Ground Silk Road, are trying to bargain. The transport, energy and trade and economic areas.

Mr. Teacher believes that bargaining is inappropriate here, which is rather roughly informed to the interlocutors: “ For the good neighborly union, there are not enough China’s desire, the corresponding steps from Russia are needed. In Russia, the opinion is often expressed that Central Asia is“ assigned ”to Russia and regardless of the opinion of the PRC of the“ Silk Road ”should be included in the“ sphere of influence ”of Moscow. If not abandoned such an approach, develop a joint joint joint Cooperation will be impossible, in these conditions everyone will lose . "

So, you will directly get a wound on the phantom neoimpersky susals ... so that they do not dare to chop on the "Russian world" in Northern Kazakhstan.

Well, about the geopolitics, beloved by our Eurasian thinkers, have talked so gloriously, now a few words for the economy. Let's start with the song of the northern guest-1: “ In a situation where the share of machines and equipment in Russian export to China is less than 1%, the achievement of two-sided trade planned by the leaders of two orientation of the volume of bilateral trade-up to $ 100 billion and up to $ 200 billion in 2020-almost entirely depends on the increase in oil supplies from Russia in the PRC (for a sufficiently high level of prices for it (according to some of In 2013, 24 million tons were delivered).

The Chinese side meets a strict and arrogant lecture: “The trade and economic cooperation of Russia and the PRC reflects the difference in the economic potentials of Russia and the PRC. Russia exports primarily the energy resources, which is due to the structure of its economy. A classic example is the trade relations of Russia and the European Union. At the same time, Russia rarely speaks of the predominance of energy resources in the structure of its export to the Western countries, but it is often referred to as it often refers to the fact that it is often referred to, often it is often referred What is the “raw materials” of China. This approach cannot be called fair, with understanding, it relates to change the structure of its foreign trade, oriented to promote this, but Moscow should take an objective position in this issue. At the same time, Russia is faced with its own restrictions caused by the production structure and the low competitiveness of its products, which inhibits the growth of Russian-Chinese trade as a whole, including the export of Russian engineering and electronics in the PRC. ”

Having lost, the Muscovites are trying to finish the dialogue on a positive note and bewitched by epochal-cabal agreements signed last year: “At the same time, as shown by numerous agreements on interregional cooperation, signed during the visit of President V.V. Putin, on May 20-21, 2014, the interaction of Russian and Chinese regions goes far beyond the border territories and the border territories and the border territories and acquires a truly all -encompassing character . "

There is another, perhaps, the deepest psychological reason for the general hysteria about the imaginary threat from the West. Fear. The authorities want to be forgotten in its heroic amusing confrontation between the West and not think about the real threats of the country's security in the south and in the east

On the contrary, not enough, according to our most natural Chinese partners, the nature is not enough: " Border cooperation is developing too slowly. There are still no convenient transport communication in the border zone, the construction of a new bridge is drawn out. This impedes the development of transport and economic ties. The main reason is the conservative attitude of Russia to the participation of China and the Far East. In the spiritual plan, it is still felt in the spiritual plan. The negative historical heritage, for example, is the presence of moods related to the so-called Chinese economic, demographic, environmental and military threats, which are in latent form when discussing border-territorial and other problems in nature. The migration threat takes into account these fears, however, it is necessary to consider Chinese activities under Russian legislation and under the control of the Russian government, which, thanks to close relations and economic complementarity, can be considered more natural than joint projects with other countries in this direction Countries should be imbued with the idea of unity and potential opportunities for general prosperity and benefit. "

The last phrase of Chinese political scientists in civilian clothes, the one that is best remembered is not even a Freudian proverb that jumped out of their historical memory from the times of the Japanese occupation. This is a direct conscious link to the Japanese colonial concept of the Great East Asian sphere of joint prosperity. Only the center of this sphere, of course, should become the Middle Empire, and Russia is destined to be imbued with the idea of prosperity as a Chinese colony.

The terrible threat of the West, crawling and dissecting Orthodox Rus' rising from his knees, is needed by our ruling kleptocracy exclusively for working with a subordinate population. In fact, the Kremlin does not believe in any such threat. Otherwise, they would never allow themselves to talk to the West in such a tone, to constantly rude to him and kick him. There will be nothing for them for it - that’s what they all know very well.

They already reliably chased their assets for secluded "common funds", and if the West still decides to be finished, then a dozen oligarchs who are not part of the core of the brigades and not belonging to the state-forming ethnic group will suffer, which will only serve the case of the patriotic education of the masses.

There is another, perhaps, the deepest psychological reason for the general hysteria about the imaginary threat from the West. Fear. The authorities want to be forgotten in its heroic amusing confrontation between the West and not think about the real threats of the country's security in the south and in the east. Because they are so serious that it just has no idea how to resist them.

“Having risen from the knees,“ smoking with which “partners” oil and gas merchants can be courageous with impunity in full program with radioactive ash and laughing “tops”, and where you need to squeeze the tail and not ask questions about large -scale military exercises along the Russian borders.

There is such a wonderful international organization of the SCO, which was created by them for "combating the same world." In fact, it turned out to be an ideal tool for the economic and geopolitical absorption of China in the medium term of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Nowadays, this prospect has turned into short -term. The new postcrymist understanding of the blur and conventions of state borders also fully applies to the borders of the Russian Federation itself. And if you recall the elegant concept of the national leader regarding the defense of the military means of citizens with Russian passports or even wider - people who feel culturally belonging to the great "Russian world", wherever they are, then a solid legal base for the upcoming annexation of the Russian Far East and Siberia is generally laid. Nobody will have to give out even passports even passports.

People close to Russian-Chinese official negotiations have been repeated in one voice recently that the Chinese have less and less a need to pretend. They belong to the Russian kleptocracy and its leaders with frank contempt, no longer hesitate to express this feeling publicly

The rulers of China no longer consider it necessary to hide this prospect from their younger strategic partners. The next Kremlin nonsense about the Fourth World War, which unfolded in Ukraine between the "Russian world" and the eternal Pindos, the Anglo -Saxon world, amused and inspired them so much that Comrade Lee Yuanchao announced on May 24, 2014, turning directly to the most outstanding mediocrity of our political class: "All your land is great and abundant. There will be no orderly orderlies. The Chinese will establish their order of the sky. "

The impudent second -person’s trick was not random, but, on the contrary, deeply thought out. People close to Russian-Chinese official negotiations have been repeated in one voice recently that the Chinese have less and less a need to pretend. Они относятся к заискивающей перед ними российской клептократии и ее вождям с откровенным презрением, уже не стесняясь выражать это чувство публично.

В самой России откровенным и, надо полагать, бескорыстным пропагандистом китайской колониальной концепции Сферы Совместного Процветания является Институт российско-китайского стратегического взаимодействия . Наиболее неутомим и последователен в своих проповедях будущего процветания известный китаист Андрей Девятов : " России нужно от отношений государственного добрососедства подняться на уровень клятвенного союза родственных цивилизаций. Союз наших родственных цивилизаций дает нам шанс быть не окраиной, в которую переносятся стратегические интересы Китая, а стать равными ".

Понимая, видимо, что термин "равные" звучит все‑таки не очень убедительно, автор далее разъясняет широкому читателю свое понимание "родственности" и "равенства" на языке доступных метафор, апеллирующих к глубоким смыслам древнекитайской философии и мифологии: " Сегодня Россия в глазах Китая лишилась статуса, стала прислугой. Но если Россия постарается, она может стать старшей сестрой – это хороший статус. В китайском мире мать – это земля, отец – небо, все решают мужчины и братья, но старшая сестра олицетворяет мудрость. Даже если она пьяная, опустилась, о ней надо заботиться, ее огород надо вспахать, ее нельзя бросить. У нее интуиция и мудрость – и Россия может эту мудрость предъявить" .

Что касается "предъявления мудрости", то здесь мы в чем-то перекликаемся с Девятовым. Я уже не раз говорил, что, судя по поведению российских властей, позиция "мудрого" смирения перед неизбежностью китайской экспансии принята ими как стратегическая и они ее старательно предъявляют. Путинская клептократия не просто старается, но и делает все возможное для того, чтобы максимально приблизить день получения Россией хорошего статуса, тактично рекомендованного ей полковником советской военной разведки, заместителем директора Института российско-китайского стратегического взаимодействия.

Особенно вдохновляет членов кооператива "Озеро" то обстоятельство, что, получив с китайцев все бабки по заключенным в последние годы кабальным соглашениям, они смогут удалиться на вечно проклинаемый ими Запад. Take care of the older sister that has lowered and plow the garden on her territory, which cannot be abandoned, will now, as Colonel Ninenes, Chinese comrades assure us.

А как они при этом будут использовать присягнувшую им на верность родственную цивилизацию – как глупого младшего брата или как встающую с колен "мудрую" старшую сестру, – это уж вопрос исключительно их вкусовых предпочтений и демографической целесообразности.

Muscovy returns to his native harbor - the Golden Horde and the Empire of the Yuan dynasty, where its traditional spiritual scrapers were formed. Об этом напомнил на днях, посоветовав всем нам учить китайский, еще один ветеран советской разведки, Дмитрий Тренин, в своей задушевной беседе с ветераном советской пропаганды Владимиром Познером. Мы не должны забывать, что уже были частью Великой азиатской империи в ХIII-ХV веках. And it's okay. Yes, at first they killed us a little, but they kept our wonderful priests on our neck, and our thieving princes were entrusted with collecting tribute themselves. И сегодня нам нужно очень серьезно потрудиться над тем, чтобы выстроить интеллектуально, по крайней мере для себя, такую модель отношений с Китаем, которая сохранила бы нас в своих собственных глазах и в глазах наших китайских партнеров как великую державу.

Сравните "потрудиться" полковника Тренина и "постараться" полковника Девятова. Они там что, в военной разведке, где бывших не бывает, одинаковые темнички из Пекина получают или у них мозги одинаково закручены со времен учебы в Военном Институте? А как мудрая старшая сестра, которая и серьезно трудится и уж как старается, выглядит на самом деле в глазах Большого Брата – смотрите выше.

Andrey Piontkovsky - political expert

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office