Ilya Karpyuk: Choose ahead of schedule

Ilya Karpyuk Preparation for the photo elections: siapress.ru

The upcoming September 13, 2015, a single voting day will be rich in governor's elections. Initially, 10 campaigns were planned, without taking into account the heads of North Ossetia, Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets districts elected through the vote in parliament. Now they added elections in three more regions, and in the Kremlin, as it turns out, they discuss the early resignation of another seven governors.

The upcoming early elections of RBC were reported "Two interlocutors close to the Kremlin, and confirmed a source in the State Duma." At the same time, this time the governors will not change - voting in the region will only pass if the current chapter can provide a trouble -free victory.

Oleg Kozhemyako

So far, early elections are scheduled in the Bryansk, Amur and Sakhalin regions - the change of governors in all three regions is associated with corruption scandals. The former head of the Sakhalin region, Alexander Khoroshavin, is now in jail, his place was taken by the Governor of the Amur Region Oleg Kozhemyako. It was because of such a personnel decision by Vladimir Putin that the governor’s resigner in one region led to early elections in two regions.

The Bryansk region lost the governor of Nikolai Denin after Vladimir Putin resigned him in September 2014 - now he is a witness to the criminal case of illegal allocation of budget funds by one of the poultry farms of the region.

The decision to hold the early elections of the governors must be adopted until June 13: according to the law on the beginning of the election campaign, it is announced three months before the voting day. So it is during the next two months that the early resignations of the governors, who want to re-elect in 2015, should be waiting for the early resignations-the interlocutors of RBC say that there should be at least 5-7 people. This is significant, but still not very much, last year, 19 extraordinary campaigns were added to the 11 planned elections of governors.

The holding of early elections, as a rule, is satisfied with both the federal center and the governors themselves, which is why in Russia they are held so often. Moscow is interested in “unloading” the year 2016, when elections to the State Duma will be held in the country. In connection with the restoration of single -mandate districts, there is a danger that the candidates who defeated them will become real political competitors of governors - this is especially true for small regions, from which only one deputy will be elected to the State Duma. Moscow, of course, is not interested in such political competition? And trying to avoid her with all his might.

In addition to everything, the federal center, apparently, has a desire to concentrate all possible resources in 2016-2018 in the State Duma and the President, not wasting to help friendly candidates for governors.

For governors, it would seem profitably, on the contrary, to combine their elections with federal campaigns-it was often done in the 1990s and in the early 2000s. This allows you to save resources and rely on the support of the center, which in any case is forced to lead the election campaign. However, the problems in the recent economy forced the heads of regional administrations to strive to go to the polls as early as possible.

As a result, the main candidates for early elections are governors whose powers end in 2016. There are only six such governors. In the calculation, you can not take the head of Karachay -Cherkessia, which is elected by parliament, and the head of Chechnya - with Ramzan Kadyrov, all problems are solved individually. Only four regions remain: Kamchatka Territory, Tver, Tula and Ulyanovsk regions.

RBC sources believe that the Kremlin thinks about the early re -election of the head of the Kamchatka Territory Vladimir Ilyukhin, the Tver governor of Andrei Shevelev, as well as several governors, whose powers expire in 2017 - for example, heads of the Irkutsk region Sergey Eroshchenko and the Leningrad Region Alexander Drozdenko.

Alexander Tkachev

According to some reports, the fate of the governor of the Kuban Alexander Tkachev is now being discussed. He is forgiven the post of Federal Minister of Agriculture, which is now occupied by Nikolai Fedorov. However, the question of the change of minister has not yet been resolved, another problem is connected with him - in Chuvashia, which he headed for 16 years, the elections will take place this year, and it is not yet clear who will be a favorite on them. Mikhail Ignatiev, who was originally called the successor of Fedorov, quarreled with his predecessor, and now the former president of the republic can contribute to the nomination to the highest post in Chuvashia, the deputy of the State Duma from the "fair Russia" Anatoly Aksakov, popular in Chuvashia.

Oleg Betin

It is likely that the interlocutors of RBC say that it is worthwhile to worry about their seats to the Governors of the Tambov region Oleg Betin, who has been heading the region for four consecutive terms, as well as the governor of the Sverdlovsk region, Yevgeny Kuyvashev. In the last rating of the effectiveness of Russian governors from the Civil Society, close to the Kremlin, the Yekaterinburg governor lost more than his other colleagues, five points at once, due to criticism of the All-Russian Popular Front. Question, the effectiveness of the use of funds for the development of the Middle Urals was questioned. Kuyvashev himself did not concern the claims, but at the center of the scandal were officials of his administration, which, of course, speaks poorly about its leader. In addition, experts record an increase in tension within regional elites. The Sverdlovsk region is one of the largest regions of the country and, quite likely, the Kremlin will not want to postpone the solution to the most important issue until 2017, when Kuyvashev's powers expire.

Alexander Kozlov

The Amur region can also be considered problematic. The acting governor Alexander Kozlov only recently turned 34 years old, moreover, he did not receive 40% of the vote in the election of the mayor of Blagoveshchensk. All this makes you doubt Kozlov’s ability to pick up more than half the votes immediately - and it is precisely such a result that is considered “decent” in modern Russia.

Be that as it may, 2016 is already thoroughly cleared from the governor's elections.

See also: the Ministry of Agriculture did not confirm reports of the resignation of Fedorov Mamsurov will leave the post of head of North Ossetia Ilya Karpyuk regional policy is determined by security forces