Strategic plan and romance of expectations

In Kyiv, the 17th summit of Ukraine-EU was held. Strategically, everything is fine there, but there are problems in the tactical part. And no matter how they were, when the situation is known, and even Ukrainian expectations spread to topics that are now realized. Especially - at the summit.

The composition was compact: President of Ukraine P. Poroshenko and two of Brussels-President of the European Council D. Tusk and the President of the European Commission J.-K. Junker. The results are in a joint statement . The document is large, the items are not invented.

But here is the issue of expectations. Ukraine, for example, thought about the EU-peacekeepers, the visa-free regime with the EU and the full use of the Free Trade zone of Ukraine-the EU. Well, the European Union worked here through the European Commission, which, respectively, is important, and not the situation with military operations. Of course, they were taken into account, but as an aggravating circumstance. Who will insert force majeure into the strategy?

In fact, the European Commission did everything for the summit everything that could: the EC summit was published by a completely key document to support Ukraine, the moral of which is that the EU is ready to help Ukraine in carrying out reforms and maintaining the current course. According to Tusk, this is "key message to President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk for today." What is consistent: the document is quite serious, here it is . If we take into account that the previous summit was in February 2013 (the longest pause in the history of these summits, they began in 1997) and what happened in these two years, the document for Ukraine is very good.

Moreover, circumstances were taken into account. The main solution: the free trade area between Ukraine and the EU will begin to work on January 1, 2016. In fact, this is quite political support - in the last September, the beginning of the work of the WHST was postponed until January 1, 2016 (the remaining clauses of the Association Agreement entered into force on November 1, 2014). The postponement of the veins was connected as a concession to Russia on the occasion of the first Minsk agreements. Accordingly, now we could talk about further delay, etc. But the head of the EC Junker acted as if and vice versa, having tied the creation of the FTS to the implementation of the second Minsk agreements: "Some want to postpone the creation of the free trade zone again. I do not think that this is a good and wise idea. We put aside, put aside and postpone." The junker also announced the decision of the EU to allocate assistance to 1.8 billion euros to Ukraine. And the EU will allocate 70 million euros to Ukraine - for the completion of the sarcophagus for the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

In general, by aggregate - everything succeeded. The strategic plan brought in Kyiv by the heads of the European Commission and the European Council cannot be more serious. And if you take into account the inertia of any bureaucracy, including Brussels, then it’s generally nice.

Expectations that have not come true

But only it is better not to be remembered. The main additional expectations were the following: peacekeepers, visa -free regime, and also the eternal topic of official confirmation of the Europrospective of Ukraine. This means that the EU at the highest level officially recognizes for Ukraine the opportunity to someday become a member of the EU. What is the meaning of such a desire (not to become a member, and it is impossible to understand a certain confirmation of an indefinite future), but this is a really eternal topic for Ukraine.

Petro Poroshenko, Arseny Yatsenyuk and Jean-Claude Junker at the EU-Ukraine summit

As for the visa-free regime between Ukraine and the EU (do not need to be confused with Schengen), it is unlikely to arise by the end of 2015. Ukrainian expectations were at the highest level: on January 12, receiving a biometric passport, Poroshenko said that this (the appearance of such passports) is the last step on the way of visa -free regime with the EU, which Ukraine will receive at the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga on May 21-22. It is not very clear why in Riga. Well, it is not decided by the summites of the oriental partnership, but other institutions. Well, it was meant that at the summit someone would say about this as a solved case. This is unlikely to happen. Yes, Tusk mentioned that the situation in the east of Ukraine should not be an obstacle to a visa -free regime, but rather had in mind exactly the opposite - simply hinted at the reason in this form. It is possible that not the main one.

Peacekeepers. Poroshenko invited peacekeepers from the EU to settlement in the East, earlier Tusk already said the impossibility of doing this now, but was ready to talk about this at the summit. At the summit, he said this: "We know that Ukraine is very counting on the help of the peacekeepers of the EU member countries in the Donbass. However, today we are considering sending a civil evaluative mission to Ukraine in order to determine the possibilities for further activities within the security policy and defense. We are not talking about a military mission."

The League-Online commentary on the results of the summit from the head of the Maidan Foreign Affairs Foundation, ex-diplomat B. Yareminko. The comment is very characteristic:
"We saw that Ukrainian diplomacy is unable to conceptually build some new relations with the European Union. Everything, as before, is reduced to the banal beak of great promises and inability to build pragmatic relations.
Ukraine wanted to hear something about the prospect of EU membership, the introduction of a visa-free regime, further internationalization and strengthening of the international presence in the conflict in the Donbass. In this regard, we did not hear any positive signals. This left a negative sediment from the summit. "

That is, this is simply a contradiction by definition: the words “did not hear any positive signals” and “this left a negative sediment from the summit” - exactly that “conceptual building” does not even come from demanding commentators.

Resentment specifically

In the course of the case, Tusk said that the Euromaidan should become a turning point for Ukraine for the better and should be achieved specifically by reforms: "But Europe cannot do all the black work for Ukrainians, the work on reforming the country, to create a more modern and fair Ukraine." The EU is waiting for the constitutional, judicial reforms and the reform of the prosecutor's office.

Poroshenko was offended by this. At a press conference, according to the results of the summit, he said: "We ask only one objective assessment of the actions of the Ukrainian team. Thesis that Ukraine is not objective, does not quite correspond to reality." After which he announced the implementation of reforms agreed with the IMF on the reduction of budget deficit.

Actually, the aforementioned "new conceptual building" could have consisted exactly in cleaning home -made expectations. The theme of "Europrospective of Ukraine", whose confirmation in Kyiv all the time they want to hear from someone seniorly from the EU already looks completely ridiculous. In the sense, the prospects themselves are not absurd, but this is an eternal desire for confirmation, which is turned by the media in general into an absurd something. This time, “European Pravda” (as if the Euro-Section “Ukrainian Pravda”) already arranged just a hysteria (full text-for the completeness of sensations):

"The President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Junker refused to call Ukraine a European state to prevent the recognition of Ukraine’s right to apply for membership in the EU.
This happened at a press conference based on the results of the Ukraine-Es summit in Kyiv, European truth reports.
The fact that Ukraine intends to submit such an application was said by President Petro Poroshenko.
As you know, the EU charter documents contain restrictions - only the "European states" can submit an application for the acquisition of membership. The European Union avoids such a definition in documents that concern Ukraine.
During the press conference, Junker refused to directly answer the question of whether Ukraine is a European state, but did not rule out that the EU would make such recognition subsequently.
“In my opinion, Ukraine is part of the European family. Not African, but European,” he left the use of a clear term.
At the same time, President Poroshenko insists that Ukraine still has the right to submit such an application.
"Patuing 49 EU agreements gives the right to all European countries to apply for EU membership, and Ukraine is a European country," the President of Ukraine emphasized. "

Jean-Claude Junker and Donald Tusk at the EU-Ukraine summit

Well, the next morning, on Tuesday of the 28th, Junker somehow correlated with feelings and yes, confirmed that "Ukraine is a European country." At the opening of the International Conference “On Support for Ukraine for Reforms” (such as After -Summit), he said: “EU supports Ukraine. We are demonstrating solidarity with Ukraine. We stand shoulder to shoulder with the people of Ukraine. Ukraine is a European country, a European state and a great European nation.” But still added that EU support should go next to reforms in Ukraine.

Actually, this is not like that about politicians, but more about the media. Poroshenko was quite adequate, at a plenary meeting the summit, he only said that "we are ambitious in our plans and faith, and that is why we declare that after 5 years we must ensure effective implementation of the association agreement and reach the conditions necessary for submitting an application for EU membership." However, he also had the topic of this mysterious recognition: “I urge the EU, supporting the European people's European people, to admit that Ukraine, like any other European state that respects and is ready to protect common values, can become a member of the EU in the future. Of course, subject to all criteria.” Whether they really see membership in the EU as something Euro-Saral. But the EU is a technological business, what else can this disappoint? However, he had to say something pathos.

For the completeness of the picture, it should be mentioned that romantic sensations are characteristic of the other side. Especially about the East of Ukraine. The material about the Euractiv summit ("An Independent Pan-European Media Network Specialized in EU Policies")reports that a certain "EU Official Who ASKED Not to BE Named" said that the EU delegation will require constitutional reform reform In Ukraine, until the end of 2015 (including agreements with the DPR and LPR) and expects that Kyiv this year will regain complete control over the eastern border ("He Said the eu Dealegation Ukraine Finalise Constitutional Reforms Thisar, Including Agreements on the Status of Two Breakaway Pro-Russian Regions, Donetsk and Lugansk. Full Control of Its Eastern Border in 2015, He Added).

How do they see it? Moreover, Tusk at the summit said that the issues of war are inferior to the issues of "post -war recovery." As a construct, he called on Russia to begin to fulfill the Minsk agreements, to withdraw Russian troops from Donbass and liberate hostages, etc. Well, in a joint statement by Tuska, Junker and Poroshenko, they again condemned the "invasion of Russian troops in the Donbass and the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, which they do not intend to recognize."