May 08, 2015, 00:20 / Finance

Ruble stability will not last long

Experts warn that the sale of risky assets is beginning Daniil Zhelobanov Speculators have accumulated a surplus of rubles / E. Razumny / Vedomosti

The dollar exchange rate has remained in the range of 50–54 rubles for a month now, sometimes breaking through its lower limit. After a long decline at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, and then an equally long strengthening, such stability is surprising. Back in April, traders and analysts promised a reversal to a new weakening, but it did not happen. Even the increase in foreign currency repo rates by the Central Bank and the reduction in the key rate from 14 to 12.5% at the end of April did not affect the situation, although the market was really looking forward to this event. In parallel, against the backdrop of an increase in oil prices in April by almost 20% with Brent reaching levels above $65 per barrel, there was talk of a possible further strengthening of the ruble - but this also did not happen.

At the same time, intraday volatility remains very high, for example, yesterday, in just the first half hour, the dollar fell in price by 0.8 rubles compared to the previous day’s close. up to 50.2 rubles, then went back and forth several times for 0.5 rubles. and in the end it fell to 50 rubles.

The ruble was lucky, there was good news all month: in anticipation of a softening of the Central Bank’s position, the ruble was bought in advance, now the overheating has been eliminated due to rising oil prices and the weakness of the dollar, notes VTB 24 bank analyst Stanislav Kleshchev. “Oil has returned to levels at which the current exchange rate is justified - 3200–3400 rubles. per barrel,” agrees ING’s chief economist for Russia Dmitry Polevoy.

Speculators are waiting and afraid to take risks: on the one hand, when the ruble fell, corporations overbought in dollars, lost on this and could start dumping it at any moment, explains Polevoy. At the same time, during the strengthening of the ruble, a large position has accumulated among those who borrowed foreign currency and invested in high-yield ruble instruments (the so-called carry trade), a reset may also begin from this side and no one wants to get into a game against the market, he believes He.

Previously on the topic: The EAEU will be the first to create a free trade zone with Vietnam - Russian Ambassador

“We can talk about the formation of some new equilibrium level, but oil prices do not look stable,” Kleshchev is optimistic. – At the same time, the range is 50–54 rubles. wide enough that if oil returns to $62 a barrel as we forecast, the dollar will still remain in that range.” “In the coming months, if there are no external shocks, we should not expect serious drops in the exchange rate, although the Russian economy remains in a difficult situation and the ruble is too strong for the development of import substitution,” notes Artem Arkhipov, an analyst at Unicredit Bank. “It is obvious that the ruble will not be able to stand at these levels for long,” Polevoy is sure.

Stability may last for some time, but from both a fundamental and market point of view, one should not count on this: the favorable situation on world markets supported the ruble, but now, on the contrary, the sale of risky assets is beginning, argues the chief economist of a global investment bank. “It sounds strange, but at the beginning of the year the ruble was closer to reality from an economic point of view,” he said. “It cannot be said that all favorable factors have been exhausted; oil remains, but it may cease to be so.”