"Mistral" as a suitcase without a handle

France may try to sell warships to China, the delivery of which is suspended to Russia due to events in the Donbass

During the visit of two French warships to Shanghai, Paris may try to agree on the sale of helicopter carriers like Mistral, built for Russia. This was reported by the newspaper Want China Times with reference to the Chinese edition of Duowei News. Earlier in the French press, information appeared that these ships, the supply of which Paris suspended Moscow due to events in the east of Ukraine, can simply be flooded. The French authorities themselves are still avoiding to make any official statements about the future fate of helicopter carriers.

The Chinese press said that Beijing may well purchase ships built for the Russian fleet, but this news was attributed to the category of "newspaper ducks". She appeared after the arrival of two French military ships on Shanghai's port on Saturday 9: Dixmude, a landing boat of the Mistral type, and Acoint - a frigate of the La Fayette type. According to the Chinese agency Duowei News, this weekly stay of ships in China can be a good reason for Paris to demonstrate the possibility of an ultramodern Mistral and find a potential buyer for two vessels, the supply of which Russia has been postponed indefinitely. Moscow on this occasion has already stated that France could not resell ships without its consent.

As a specialist in Russia from the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) Tatyana Kastuyeva-Zhan notes in an interview with Radio Freedom, messages similar to what came out in the Taiwanese press, so far remains no more than rumors, and they need to be treated accordingly: it is necessary to treat them accordingly:

Two main questions have been intertwined: can ships be sold and if so, to whom? There were many rumors

- This is a dossier along which there were so many rumors and so many changes in the wind that he does not need to trust him yet. France refusal to convey to Russia the Mistrals of Russia is a real puzzle: political, economic, and legal. The Mistrals turned out to be like a suitcase without a pen: it is impossible to carry, and it’s a pity to quit. Legal puzzle - because these vessels were built for Russian standards. The recent statement by Dmitry Rogozin (Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government.-RS) says that France has no right to sell them without the consent of Russia. Technical puzzle - because everything is Russified on the ships, and they are built for cold waters. Economic puzzle - their content is too expensive. This is the rental of dock and other expenses associated with this. Military puzzle - who can sell them? What are possible partners and what is worth their possible desire to acquire these vessels? It is clear that if suddenly China acquires them, he uses this opportunity to build its ships of this class. This is a political puzzle - how to make it not to quarrel with Russia, but Mistralli cannot be conveyed to her, due to the situation in Ukraine? In this difficult situation, two main questions were intertwined: is it possible to sell ships and if so, to whom? There were many rumors. A high -level military mentioned Egypt, China, Australia, Portugal in this regard. So far, none of this has been confirmed, ”says Tatyana Kastuyeva-jan.

Last week in the French press there was information that one of the opportunities that Paris is considering is to bring ships to the open sea and flood them. IFRI expert is skeptical of the following reports:

- I saw a lot of comments on this topic. The military says: it would be absolutely absurd. A lot of money is invested in these vessels, and it will simply be flooded with the height of irrationality. At some point, at the beginning of this or at the end of last year, it was a question of the creation of a certain naval force at the level of the European Union. Of course, it would be a very strong symbolic gesture, not even in relation to Russia. Probably, for Europe, it would generally be a very bright demarche. But, unfortunately, so far all this remains at the utopia level, and this option is not considered today, ”the expert notes.

As for the current stage in the relations of Russia and France, both sides are trying to do everything so as not to overtake passions and to maximize the tone in the polemic along the "Mistrals". Presidents Vladimir Putin and Francois Hollande saw at the end of April in Armenia, at the ceremony of memory of the victims of the massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. It is very important for Russia to preserve a normal dialogue with France, since this is an important European partner, Tatyana Kastuyeva-Jhan believes:

The Russian authorities built their information campaign in a completely different way, and it is quite effective

- On the one hand, there is no progress in the case of "Mistrals". But on the other hand, there is no passion that could be expected after the first statement that the ships may not be transferred. Both sides are very neat to this dossier. Russia needs France in order to continue the Minsk process, and in order to have a good level in Europe in Europe. The statements on the "Mistrals" are made very neat, and it is felt. There is even a certain symmetry between the communication campaigns of the two countries, directed, first of all, to their own population. Although in France this campaign was not very successful. It was evident how many hesitation there were, how many things broke through, which, perhaps, should not have been in public space. Take at least the publications last year that the Russians received an official invitation to the ceremony of launching ships to the water. France subsequently refuted this information, and someone from the leadership of the company that built ships was even dismissed. The Russian authorities built their information campaign in a completely different way, and it is quite effective. Initially, everything is served as if we are talking about a certain gesture of friendship to help French partners. This was said during the recent direct line with Vladimir Putin. And always with a kind of reservation that Russia is not very needed, and that it is a service of France. Thus, in the information plan, Russia is in a more advantageous position.

It must be recognized that the assessment of the consequences of refusal to transfer the courts of Russia was exaggerated

In France, the position on the issue of the transfer of Mistrals is very polar, continues Tatyana Kastuyeva-Jean. There were rallies and manifestations both in support of their transmission and against them. In economic and military circles, almost a complete consensus: the court must be given to the customer. “But at the same time it must be recognized that the assessment of the consequences of refusal to transfer the courts of Russia was exaggerated,” the French expert notes. Often there was an opinion that if the ships are not delivered to Russia, then this would damage the image of France as a major supplier of military equipment. A recent transaction for the sale of Egyptian fighters type "Rafal" showed that such an assumption does not correspond to reality:

- Francois Hollande is waiting for the full fulfillment by Russia and Ukraine of the Minsk agreements. In the meantime, the situation remains not very stable. In France, there is a certain expectation that fighting in the zone of Ukrainian conflict may resume.

In this state of affairs, Tatyana Kastuyeva-Jean believes, in the next two to three months it is difficult to expect that the situation with the Mistrals will move out of the dead point.