Thanks to exporters, the ruble continues to strengthen against other currencies at auction on Monday. After the completion of tax payments, analysts expect the dollar exchange rate to consolidate at the level of 50.5–51 rubles.

Photo: Oleg Yakovlev / RBC

On the Moscow Exchange, trading on Monday, May 25, opened with a slight increase in the ruble against the dollar and the euro. By 13:00 Moscow time, the dollar was trading at 49.85 rubles, having decreased by 15 kopecks. and the euro - 54.68 rubles, falling by 17 kopecks. to the opening. The market was supported by exporters, who will have to pay 670 billion rubles in May. tax payments. Most of the payments are made on Monday and next Thursday. “According to our estimates, by the end of this week, exporters will have to sell approximately $4 billion more in foreign currency,” says the Sberbank CIB report.

The dynamics of the ruble were not affected by either the decline in oil prices (the price of Brent at the auction decreased by 0.38%, to $65.32), or the statements of the Central Bank. The day before, the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Ksenia Yudaeva, said that the regulator, if necessary, is ready to increase the volume of foreign exchange interventions. Currently, the Central Bank buys $200 million worth of currency every day. Last week, the Central Bank bought $1 billion. On Monday, the regulator once again canceled the currency repo auction for a period of one year.

“The market situation is calm. Due to the absence of foreign participants, who have a day off today, trading volumes are very small,” said Alexander Mühlberger, head of trading on the BCS foreign exchange market. According to him, exporters will continue to support the ruble until the end of the week, so there will be slight volatility in the market. “If no significant events occur, then by Friday the dollar exchange rate may approach the 51 ruble mark,” he believes.

According to Andrei Kochetkov, an analyst at Otkritie Broker, the ruble is provided with additional support by the high demand for OFZ. “Banks are buying ruble bonds in anticipation of the upcoming reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate,” he explains. The next meeting of the board of directors of the Central Bank is scheduled for mid-June.

“We expect that the Central Bank will reduce the key rate by 100 bp, but if the ruble continues to strengthen, then the regulator’s actions may be more aggressive - the rate will be reduced by 200-250 bp,” says Promsvyazbank analyst Alexey Egorov. This will affect the yield of ruble bonds and cause an outflow of investor funds from the market, which will put additional pressure on the ruble. According to the analyst, if oil prices fall at the same time, this could cause a significant downward correction in the ruble exchange rate.

However, in the absence of dramatic events in geopolitics and with stable oil prices, the ruble exchange rate may remain stable for several more months. “It seems that the time when exchange rates could change by 2-3 rubles a day has already passed,” says Egorov. He believes that in the near future the dollar will trade within the range of 49.5–50.5 rubles. According to Vladimir Evstifeev, deputy head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, with the payment of the most costly taxes, the ruble will lose internal support. “Given the current set of factors, this may lead to a slight weakening. At the same time, we do not expect a significant increase in the dollar and euro exchange rates,” the expert believes.

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“Grow the dollar above 51 rubles. hamper sales of exporters' revenue, and fall below 49 rubles. The Central Bank doesn’t allow it,” explains Kochetkov. According to the analyst, there are no devaluation expectations in the market.

“It seems that there is no consensus in the market regarding the further movement of the ruble,” notes Uralsib analyst Irina Lebedeva. According to her, market participants are afraid to sell or buy foreign currency, preferring to use it for currency swap transactions on the interbank market. “As a result, despite the tax payment season, rates on the interbank market are declining, the Mosprime overnight rate has dropped below the key rate of the Central Bank,” says the review prepared by Uralsib.

At the same time, some analysts believe that the potential for dollar strengthening has not yet been exhausted. “A very likely increase in Fed rates this year could lead to a continuation of massive capital outflow from emerging markets, stimulating the strengthening of the US currency,” notes Vladimir Kiselev, an analyst at Dokhod Financial Group. On Friday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen announced an upcoming rate hike. She noted that raising the rate before the end of this year would be “appropriate.”

Last week, the head of emerging markets debt markets at Blackrock Inc. reported that it was “fixing profits” on Russian assets. “We had a long position in the ruble, and now we have taken a profit on our position in the Russian currency,” Bloomberg quoted Sergio Trigo Paz, head of emerging markets debt markets at Blackrock, as saying . According to him, with today's oil price well above $60 per barrel, he is preparing positions for a fall to around $50.

This year, the ruble has outperformed oil prices, strengthening against the dollar by 22% since the beginning of 2015.

Exporters helped the ruble strengthen