It will be very difficult for Gazprom to implement the Turkish Stream project after Macedonia’s statement that the country will agree to laying a pipeline through its territory only after Russia reaches an agreement with the EU

Photo: REUTERS 2015

Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski announced his intention to make the Macedonian branch of the pipeline dependent on Brussels the day before, reports the Macedonian publication Kurir. He emphasized that in such matters Macedonia will follow Euro-Atlantic policy.

Sources of the Kommersant newspaper believe that since the pipeline cannot bypass the territory of Macedonia in any way, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the land part of it will never leave Turkey.

The publication's interlocutors indicate that Gazprom will have to limit itself, at best, to laying two strings of a gas pipeline across the Black Sea.

Alexey Grivach from the FNEB told the newspaper that, theoretically, Russia could do without Macedonia if it laid a pipe from Greece directly to southern Italy. Formally, the underwater gas pipeline will not be subject to EU sanctions, but in practice it requires the issuance of a permit, and this process may take a long time. Another option is to use the Eastring project to deliver gas to Baumgarten, Austria, but it is too complicated because it would require the launch of a large Trans-Balkan pipeline, in which Gazprom is not involved.

Nevertheless, the chances of abandoning transit through Ukraine by 2020 remain. The capacity of the two lines of the Turkish Stream is 32 billion cubic meters. m per year. Half will be taken by Turkey, the rest of the gas can be delivered to Greece and Bulgaria with minimal requirements for additional infrastructure. If Eastring or its equivalent is built, Gazprom will be able to supply about 15 billion cubic meters. m to the Balkans, using the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline in reverse mode. Obligations to customers in Italy and Central Europe may be covered by Nord Stream's free capacity.

Video: RBC

As a last resort, Gazprom can close the deficit in the Italian market using LNG from a plant it plans to build in the Baltic, but this option will also require political approval from the EU.

Previously, Gazprom was forced to abandon the construction of the South Stream pipeline. The reason was Bulgaria’s refusal to agree to the construction of a branch through its territory until the issue was agreed upon between Moscow and Brussels.

The media reported problems with the implementation of the Turkish Stream project