"Take and pay"

You are grunting skeptical when you are talking about the next historical visit of the President of Russia from the television holder, but in vain. Well, you don’t grunt, but rather enthusiastically freeze, holding your breath, with the sounds of a message that the national leader masterfully played a diplomatic game on a trip to some foreign leader. However, I can argue that you cannot cover all the historical significance of such visits the first time. At least 82–84 percent of you definitely cannot. You underestimate the role that the personality in Russian history can play.

In Russia, the role of the state in society is prohibitively high. Boarders, state corporations, pensioners from whom once again selected their accumulations, putting all the payments to the same state pension fund. Plus "Armata" and other re -equipment programs, plus loans to foreign states supporting our efforts in the fight against unsuccessful attempts by hated Americans to isolate Russia in the international arena.

The costs are significant, whatever you say. And against the backdrop of not only small, but also more and larger entrepreneurs leaving the business, this burden has to, of course, to the state. There and Dmitry Zimin announced that since he had already intended to write him down in “foreign agents”, he will not pay more of his money (which the Dynasty Foundation is being eaten) will not pay for the education of personnel for Russian science. And “Armata” and other funny “Iskanders” are still needed by bright scientific minds, because without them crews on black and white plasma matrices of the production of the Ryazan plant still cannot see what made them laugh so. We need high -quality liquid crystallic ones, they need to be created, science is needed for this, science today, like oats, is expensive - and here Zimin is declared an “agent”, which means that it is again to pay the state. Money is needed.

And where to get the money? 52 percent of the income of the Russian government, which announces Zimin with a foreign agent and will now pay for what the "dynasty" paid for earlier, are formed from revenues from the sale of oil and gas. Moreover, the lion's share is from the activities of a single organization called Gazprom. That's what it must be hung out and cherished, in every possible way contributing to the growth of the corresponding receipts. Since the Ziminsky "dynasty" and other similar trifles are no longer needed more.

Against the backdrop of a sort of catavasia, the president goes, well, say, a diplomatic game in China and masterfully. We need to show the damned Americans that we are not in isolation, we even sell our gas to China! True, the Chinese do not want to take, they say - expensive, a discard to us, please. And there is nowhere to take the discs from Gazprom and so below the payback level, the Gazprom component of the price has nowhere to cut. But this is only whiners claim that nothing can be done, and masters of diplomacy know that the possibilities can always be found. Say, due to the abolition of export duty. We cancel the fee - the price will become lower, the price will become lower - the Chinese will agree to take gas at a cheap and sign the protocol, and with the protocol signed by the Chinese, how can Americans say that we are in isolation! And Russia, a member of the World Trade Organization, excludes the price for China from the formula for China, also a member of the WTO, an export fee, thereby reducing the final price for the consumer. Workshop diplomatic game! Remember this.

Another fundamentally underestimated visit by the president took place in Budapest. Where the Hungarian Prime Minister was supposed to become a faithful ally of Russia in the Euro-Fashists camp ... that is, partners from the EU. The laws of psychology say: in order to achieve something from a person, he must be motivated. Well, we will be interested in Viktor Orban Hungarian by the fact that we can cancel for him-well, say, the principle of “take or pay” the “Gazprom” laid down in all his long-term contracts. About this principle I must say a few words. The fact is that fuel is pumped through pipes due to gas turbine engines that select gas from the same pipe on which they drive gas. That is, if you want it or not, but there are always certain rushing gas losses during pumping. The share of this gas consumption for pumping relative to the total amounts of the volume is higher, the lower the set volume. This, roughly speaking, as “10 liters per 100 kilometers of the journey”, regardless of whether one person will go in a taxi or five, as in a London cab. You still pay one price. With very low supply volumes, this share reaches 30 percent of the cost of gas supplied through the pipe. So Gazprom, like that taxi driver, lays up so as not to work at a loss, one price. So you either take gas, or not, but lay out the money - pay for the full contracted volumes of supplies, it does not matter if you choose them or not.

And this is what Gazpromovskoye “take or pay” the President of Russia, a member of the WTO, for Hungary, also a member of the WTO, in Budapest and canceled, interested in the Hungarian prime minister. The diplomatic game from the Russian side is just a workshop! Remember this.

Workshop Political Game in the International Arena can lead to progress in the economic situation of the largest companies

Now let's recall what they knew before. Firstly, according to the Rules of the WTO, all members of this organization are equal in trade issues, so that the rules of mutual trade between them should be uniform and cannot differ for different countries. That is, if a certain country - a member of the WTO - considers it possible to establish for another country, also a member of the WTO, a certain preference (well, say, the principle of "take or pay" cancel or excludes the export fee from the price formula), then all other countries included in the WTO are automatically obtained by exactly the same preferences.

Recall that for many years a trade dispute between Gazprom and Poland has been stretching, which requires riding her to pay for gas that she did not consume-the Poles do not like the principle of “Bay or Pay”, they will not understand why they pay gas, which at that time “Gazprom” actually sells someone else. However, here I was mistaken: the dispute is not "stretching", but "stretched". Because perennial disputes were recently allowed in one fell swoop - alas, not in favor of Gazprom - when Poland (also, like Hungary, a member of the WTO) presented the details of a contract approved by the President of Russia during his visit to Budapest, canceling the Geri or Plati rule for Hungary. And the arbitration applied the Rule of the WTO and decided and in relation to Poland, too, the principle of "take and pay" cancel. What do you think, how much should you wait in order to apply to them a preferential regime established by Gazprom in relation to Hungary (and now Poland), all other Gazprom clients turned? For some reason, I think not long.

Last week, Ukraine turned to Gazprom with a proposal to reduce the price of gas for it by excluding the export duty price from the formula! As in a contract with China. It will be amazing if, as a result of these movements caused by recent diplomatic breakthroughs, receipts from Gazprom will not decrease to the budget of the Russian government.

So you find the justice of the Marxist thesis: politics and economics are inextricably linked. The workshop is a political game in the international arena can lead to progress in the economic situation of the largest companies. So do not underestimate the visits of the President of Russia and the documents signed by him - almost every of them has reason to become historical.

Igor Sutyan-London Military-Political Expert. Former employee of the Institute of the United States and Canada