Respectable barbarism

Radical Islam disease goes into the chronic phase

They come, they take the cities again. Of the latest achievements - Ramadi, the capital of the Iraqi province of Anbar with its oil pipelines and refineries, and the ruins of ancient Palmyra, included in the UNESCO World Heritage List.

The capture of the Islamic State Palmyra seemed to put Western civilization before an existential choice. The militants of the “Islamic state” were already famous for the destruction of the Assyrian and Akkadian statues in Iraqi Mosul, and the civilized world froze in anticipation of a new catastrophe, not having the will to save the complex from the invasion of jihadists. The visible triumph of young barbarism over a decrepit culture was inexorably approaching. What to do when civilization will be irrefutably convicted of powerlessness to fight for your legacy?

IG itself unexpectedly helped to preserve the face of civilization, announcing that it did not plan to destroy Palmyra: the architectural ruins are not images of idols, it is not necessary to destroy them. A special video was even released, demonstrating the safety of monuments. Instead, the amphitheater was adapted for mass public executions, but this is the tenth business- the world is used to photo and video reports about cut off hands, severed heads, about crucified, dumped from roofs, burned alive.

The main thing is that I actually showed mercy to civilization, abandoning the tempting idea to arrange a action of public moral humiliation. It felt that this place in which it was better not to beat; What knows where to stop.

This story shows that the Islamic State has more and more chances for survival. The acute stage ends, the disease goes into a chronic form. IG is rooted in the conquered territories, the principles of the administration are more or less worked out. Yes, terrible, bloody executions, a lot of prohibitions, up to smoking and narrow trousers, but combatants do not rob the Sunni population, but the real estate of kafir and apostates distribute the poor and militants. Plus, low business taxes: 2.5% for those who earned the equivalent of 100 grams of gold per year or more, less successful entrepreneurs do not pay anything; Mandatory assistance to the poor; Fixed prices for medicines and cheap counterfeit.

The actions of the coalition in the fight against the IG are clearly ineffective.

The United States officially states that over 9 months of the campaign, the coalition caused enemy huge damage in manpower - more than 10 thousand militants were killed. In September last year, the number of IS troops was estimated at about 30 thousand. It turns out that the enemy lost a third of manpower, but continues to win impressive victories. Despite the fact that IS has no open sympathy, from all sides it is surrounded by enemies.

Many well -known Islamic preachers recently signed the fatwa about the permit of the battle against IG. There are regular combat clashes between the Islamists fighting in Syria against the Assad regime and groups of the Islamic State.

IS is often accused of secret agreements with Bashar Assad, coordinated attacks on the battle groups of the Syrian opposition. The other day, after the opposition’s offensive breakdown in Aleppo, the United States joined these accusations. The synchronism of actions was too obvious: the aviation of the regime bombed the city from the air, and the IG at that time attacked the opposition group from the rear.

In any case, according to statistics, only 6% of the 982 operations of Syrian government troops were directed against IG, which meets Assado: 13% of its operations against the IG regime. In Iraq, the balance is different - more than half of the attacks of the IG were aimed at government troops. And you should not look for the truth in the conspiracy the variants of the "true owners" of this policy, everything is simpler:

IG goes to a breakthrough where the managerial fabric is thinned, leaving more durable fragments for later. His actions are subordinated to the main goal - to survive as a state. Therefore, it gives the signals of the agreement in the outside world and is concerned about the legality and social pillow within itself.

The idea of burning the IG with fire and sword no longer looks realistic - there will be too many victims. Neither the coalition, nor the Iraqi government, nor Assad, or Iran are actually unmotivated by such steps. The most likely strategy is localization at least within the current boundaries, the organization of blockade and point operations against leaders. The lack of resources and the loss of valuable managerial personnel should lead to the decay of the fragile structure into competing gangster groups. But for effective blockade, order in the neighboring territories is needed, and it is not expected for a long time.

And maybe so: the expansion of the IG will stop, fanatical radicals in the leadership will be replaced by more respectable people, violence will enter the framework of the region, a utopian experiment will gradually be folded. But this is an unable process. In the coming years, apparently, we all live with it.