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Political economist and sociologist Nicholas Ebertadt - on the consequences of a demographic catastrophe in Russia

The American political economist and sociologist Nicholas Ebertadt has been closely monitoring the demographic situation in Russia for many years. In the book "Demographic Crisis in Russia of Peaceful Time ", published in 2010, Ebertadt presented the Russian demographic situation as a catastrophic one, comparing the expected life expectancy and the level of mortality of Russians with similar indicators in the poorest countries of the world. The thesis of the monograph by Ebertadt stated in the article "The Dying Bear ", published in Foreign Affairs in 2011. In it, the author suggested that the Russian authorities awareness in the country can lead to the fact that "Russian political leaders will occupy a more Alarmist, unstable and confrontation position in the international arena."

The scientific observer of Radio Liberty met in Nicholas Eberschdat and asked him about the prognosis of the treasury, the paradox of the era of the rule of Vladimir Putin and the main resource of mankind.

- In Russia, a demographic catastrophe really occurs?

- In my view, Russia is experiencing a deep crisis of human resources, and it has not begun now, it has been going on for half a century. During this time, he gained a huge inertia, it is now very difficult to curtail from this path. Birth patterns in Russia are very similar to European ones. But despite the fact that in European countries, the birth rate can be slightly less than the necessary to restore the population, this is not such a big problem. The abbreviated population of Germany does not prevent her from flourishing her, and her citizens - to get rich. The problem is not in the amount of the population, but in human capital, healthcare, education, knowledge of knowledge. For each of these points, Russia is in a deep crisis. Take the mortality situation. Of course, it changes from year to year, but, frankly, it still remains catastrophic. The expectation of the life of a 15-year-old man from Haiti is higher than that of a Russian. According to this parameter, Russian men are not even in the third, but in the fourth world. In women, the situation is better, but only not much. The life expectancy of a 15-year-old Russian woman is at the level of the least developed countries, it is less than that of Cambodia. If you look at men and women together, survival prospects for working age for Russians are worse than the inhabitants of Ethiopia. And this is an extraordinary paradox, because we are talking about an urbanized society with a high level of literacy, in a situation of peacetime. This began a long time ago, and in the post -Soviet era the situation has not been fundamentally improved.

- And the crisis is not limited to high mortality?

The life expectancy of a 15-year-old man from Haiti is higher than that of a Russian

- A big problem is the level of knowledge of knowledge. Everyone who communicates with the Russians note how many talented people have great potential of people among them. But this practically does not manifest itself, does not go out. Here is a small example: the number of international patents issued by the US Patent Bureau for Inventors from Russia, in terms of the number of people with a university education of working age, is approximately at the Liberia level. It looks very strange. You can go even further and look at the structure of Russian exports, at that part of it, which is not associated with minerals, but with people, with the services that they produce. The Russian export of services is incredibly weak for a country of this size, with such access to education. All this indicates that the alarming crisis of human resources occurs. The potential of people simply cannot open.

- Is it correct to judge the ability of Russia to produce new knowledge by the number of international patents, and even issued by the American Bureau?

- This is a fair remark. International patents are a very rude indicator, for many reasons it can be inconsistent. For example, a significant share of knowledge produced may be associated with secret military developments. Perhaps there are some structural barriers that limit the fair competition of patents, although for other countries I do not know such barriers. Again, not all patents are real, for example, there are the so -called "protective patents", which in fact do not reflect the production of knowledge. But the situation with publications in international scientific journals is very similar. Since China has come out of self -isolation, the number of works of Chinese scientists in scientific journals is growing very quickly, and the number of articles of Russian scientists is in stagnation. And Russia is one of the very few countries in the world where there is such stagnation. These two observations, patents and publications are at least consistent with each other. Of course, it cannot be argued that they describe a complete picture, but we can still recall what I spoke of Russian export of services.

- And yet it cannot be said that according to the number of scientific publications, Russia is at the level of Liberia.

Five percent of all able -bodied citizens who graduated from at least the level of the college and two percent of the entire world population lives in Russia

- Liberia is much smaller than Russia, and the number of educated people in these two countries is generally stupid to compare. Five percent of all able -bodied citizens of the world lives in Russia who graduated from the educational institution at least the level of college. At the same time, the population of Russia is two percent of the world. Against this background, a tiny number of international patents issued to Russians are shocking. In Liberia, in principle, there are very few people who have received higher education.

- Can the problem of low knowledge of knowledge be associated with brain leakage from Russia?

- Brain leak occurs not only from Russia, but also from India, China, Brazil, but the situation in these countries is completely different. The desire to move to a country that offers more economic opportunities, of course, but the move of talented scientists and engineers from these developing countries does not prevent them from demonstrating wonderful dynamics in the production of knowledge. Of course, a brain leak gives some kind of effect, but in other countries there is also a leak of brain, and the results are completely different.

- In the sensational article “The Dying Bear” you wrote that in Russia not only a low level of knowledge of knowledge, but also a very poor education. (The exact quote: “Part of the problem lies in the fact that although many Russians go to schools, they visit colleges and universities, this education has a terribly low quality. Standardized international tests demonstrate that Russian primary and secondary education is at best at the middle level.” - RS). But if you look at the results of TIMMS tests , which are held among schoolchildren on conditionally 4th and 8th grades around the world every four years, Russia falls into at least the first ten ratings, and, by the way, each time shows the best results than the United States.

No other country of the world came up with me, where with such a high level of education there would be such a low expected life expectancy

- This is a very strange paradox. By the level of secondary and higher education, Russia demonstrates excellent results. All people from Russia with whom I spoke are perfectly educated. But this does not give any noticeable external exhaust. Not a single country in the world came to my mind, where, with such a high level of education, there would be such a low expected life expectancy. It is generally accepted that education is a kind of vaccination. But although the average Russian has been studying for more years than the average Frenchman, the health of the citizens of these two countries is very different in the opposite direction. Education in Russia is not transformed into human well -being. I don’t know why, I can only observe this phenomenon and mark it.

- Have positive shifts have occurred in this regard over the past 25 years?

-In some years, the situation looks more positive, but I do not see any general improvement. The mortality rate in Russia does not come closer to this indicator in Europe and the USA, the same can be said about the number of international patents issued and the number of applications for them, the same thing about the export of services. Obviously, there is some kind of systemic problem.

- System - political? Or worldview?

Leaving the Russian environment, people begin to prosper

- This is a certain systemic feature of the environment, maybe the economic environment, perhaps political, I cannot say for sure. What I can say for sure is that when the Russians find themselves outside of Russia, everything becomes good with them. Leaving the Russian environment, people begin to flourish. I don’t know what kind of problem is inside the black box, but it definitely is there.

- It is difficult to imagine that Russia in terms of mortality and life expectancy is at the level of the poorest countries, such as Haiti.

- A high level of premature mortality in Russia is achieved for completely different reasons than in Haiti or Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, one of the most common causes of premature death is diseases associated with poverty, with a lack of hygiene and food. In Russia, other problems are chronic diseases, cardiovascular diseases, injuries. A lot of vodka is drunk here, and no in Ethiopia. If Russia plans to approach the level of mortality to the countries of Europe and the USA, you need to change something in the very structure of the causes of mortality.

- In one of the articles, you used to describe the key cause of mortality in Russia the phrase "dangerous lifestyle."

Constant thoughts about gloomy prospects, lack of hopes - all this can affect the inhabitants of Russia much more than the inhabitants of Greece

- Yes, a dangerous lifestyle. There are things that I cannot measure, I can only speculate, without specific facts in my hands. To some extent about a dangerous lifestyle as a cause of death, one can talk about the data, but there are still things such as people's ideas about their prospects, as their expectations from life. I know that a study is being prepared now about whether stress is the most dangerous Russian killer. Constant thoughts about gloomy prospects, lack of hopes - all this can affect the inhabitants of Russia much more than, for example, on the inhabitants of Greece. If it were possible to figure out how and why the worldview, the mentality pushes Russians to a risky lifestyle, it would become clear how to turn the situation. Even if some things at first glance are deeply rooted in culture, in traditions, this does not mean that they cannot be quickly changed. See: in Russia there are so many people die from heart disease. If you just teach Russians, starting from a certain age, take aspirin daily - this would have saved tens of thousands of lives every year. This is only one small step, but it is very inexpensive and it is easy to make. I was engaged in South Korea for a long time: thirty years ago there was a terrible situation with the life expectancy, and now, according to this indicator, Korea is the leader of Southeast Asia. And all this is during the life of one generation.

- And yet Russia with its black box is unique?

- I am now working on research on a related topic, studying what changes in income and labor productivity in the world in the post -war era were related. About 80 percent of the difference in these indicators from the country to the country and within the country are associated with four factors: healthcare, education, urbanization (for some reason, urbanization increases the efficiency of human resources, possibly due to labor division) and business climate. It is no secret that healthcare and in some respects in Russia have been in stagnation in Russia. With education, the situation is more optimistic, but with a business climate, it also doesn’t matter. In my opinion, the potential of human resources of Russia could be revealed better. You know, there has never been an energy superpower in the world, it cannot be at all. Last year, the export of goods and services from Russia was lower than from Belgium. It seems to me that Russia was possible to make Russia a rich country and a truly large economy, revealing the potential of people living in it, and not mining minerals.

- What does the demographic position look like in Russia against the backdrop of other former republics of the USSR?

Perhaps Russia looks good in this indicator only against the background of Ukraine, but it is unlikely that this can please someone

-The birth rate in Russia, which fell in the late 90s, is now being embossed, and a little faster than in many other former Soviet republics. There he is still much lower than the level necessary to replenish the population. In this sense, the situation of Russia is a little better, but it was better before the birth rate collapse. If we talk about the expected life expectancy and mortality rate over the past 10 years, there are also some good news. There is a decrease in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and injuries, although at the general international level it still remains unacceptably high. Perhaps Russia looks good in this indicator only against the background of Ukraine, but it is unlikely that this can please someone. In general, demographic trends in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, to some extent in Moldova are very similar in many ways.

- Is everything different in the Baltic states?

- Until a certain point and there, the situation was similar, by the way, we should not forget that these countries have significant Russian diasporas. But all similarities ended with the 90s. After that, the situation with healthcare in the Baltic countries began to improve rapidly. The birth rate there is still lower than the level of generations, but life expectancy has increased significantly, and the mortality rate has decreased. But with Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, the picture is largely similar. I think for people from these countries this will not seem surprising, because there are a lot of them historically related to each other.

- The laws related to the formation and production of knowledge that you celebrate in Russia can be found in these countries?

- I did not specifically study this issue. I suppose that the level of education in Moldova is much lower. I do not really imagine how the situation in Belarus has changed in recent years. But, generally speaking, the paradox of the coexistence of a high level of education and the low level of human capital also applies to these countries. So Russia is still not absolutely unique in this sense. But there are very few such countries.

-Changing the political situation in Russia over the past 25 years somehow affect demography?

Here is one of the most amazing aspects of the Putin era: how insignificant improvements in healthcare were compared to the increase

- Here is one of the most amazing aspects of the Putin era: how insignificant improvements in healthcare were compared to the growth of wealth. Usually they say Wealth Brings Health, "wealth brings health." If you look at what has been happening in Russia in the last 15 years, it becomes clear that this is too broad generalization. Yes, the expectation of life has grown, but it is still small. It cannot be argued so far that modern Russia has reached the level of Soviet times in this indicator. It could be assumed that the stagnation of the expected life expectancy is some kind of natural thing. But the world, in fact, is becoming more healthy. So the opposite is true, the natural situation is a constant increase in life expectancy. In Russia, it is not, and, probably, it is worth thinking about the reasons.

- In the article “The Dying Bear” you wrote that the awareness of the Russian leadership of a catastrophic demographic situation in the country can affect foreign policy and make it more unpredictable. Now such unpredictability has become a reality. Can there be a connection here?

For me, as an external observer, it is obvious that Russia has become much more unpredictable today, and its actions in relation to neighboring countries and the entire international community are risky

- I would like to say no, but I'm afraid that this is possible. If the basis of policy was to increase the welfare and prosperity of people, and not in strengthening the central government, not in the idea of national greatness, today's Russia could look completely different. When the government is preoccupied with the geopolitical position, and its base of human resources in a sense is subject to erosion, there may be a temptation to take compensatory steps in the international arena. One of the ways of such compensation is the adoption of higher risks. It is obvious to me as an external observer that Russia has become much less predictable today, and its actions in relation to neighboring countries and the entire international community are risky. Is there a causal relationship here? Доказать это я не могу, но эта перспектива беспокоила меня еще пять лет назад. В то же время я не думаю, что есть какой-то неизбежный механизм, который делает любую страну с демографическими проблемами непредсказуемой и опасной. Нужно еще учитывать конкретные политические особенности современной России.

– Что в современном мире является самым важным ресурсом?

Время – вот чего нам больше всего не хватает

– Самый важный невосполнимый ресурс – человеческое время. Его нельзя вернуть, оно уходит и никогда не возвращается. И время напрямую связано с благосостоянием. Время – вот чего нам больше всего не хватает. Мы должны сделать его главным приоритетом, и тогда получим путеводную звезду для нашего будущего.