Boeing: a draft of the investigation

The OSCE parliamentary assembly will be held without the participation of the Russian delegation. Why is the decision of the Finnish authorities not to let into the country of the Speaker of the State Duma and a number of other Russian parliamentarians caused a protest on the verge of hysteria in Russia? And also - the last information about the investigation regarding the Malaysian Boeing. The guest of the studio is journalist Raf Shakirov. In touch - his own correspondent of the RS in Holland Sofya Kornienko.

Elena Rykovtseva: I represent our guest today - Raf Shakirov, journalist with us. To begin with, in the Netherlands a draft of the report of the commission to investigate the tragedy with the Malaysian Boeing has been prepared in Holland. We will also talk about the extremely acute reaction of Russian parliamentarians that they were not allowed to Finland. It seemed that they had to adapt to sanctions this year, were not adapted. Before you convey the word to our colleague Sofya Kornienko, who will tell at what stage, what information we have, I will ask, Raf, your opinion: this draft will be presented to the countries to the participants, at least for a minute you believe that someday will happen that all countries, all interested parties will subscribe and this will be considered a point?

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Raf Shakirov: In my opinion, the question is rhetorical. Of course, the consensus cannot be, by definition, that everyone is signed. You noticed that a draft of the report is transmitted. When you follow the news, the notes are transmitted, documents, but for the draft of documents to be transmitted. What if something is wrong, we can play back, they are afraid of everything. Therefore, it is clear that the truth is unlikely to ever be established, if only in 50-60 years. At this time, I think, there will be no witnesses and no one will be interested. This is a long -playing such a tedious, burdock story that has already passed from the sphere of forensics, investigations into the sphere of diplomacy. There will be these drafts, notes, statements, periodic bursts, but the news itself will follow the fading. In many ways, not only political forces are interested in this, but, unfortunately, there is a serious economic interest here. Because you yourself understand that if you are shot down during hostilities and so on, there is insurance affairs here. Not only Ukraine, who believes that we, not only we, who believe that Ukraine, and the third countries, the third parties that take part in the investigation, are also not interested in the final points over I, because this promises large diplomatic complications that no one will allow, no one wants to pay for anything, nor the injured, nor relatives, nobody. The same thing happens with the liner on the other end of the world, if they notice, everyone is looking, everyone dives ...

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, in these stories, the parallel is drawn between them precisely in the fact that they are buried, because no one is ultimately interested. Probably, about the Dutch, so to speak. I think that the Netherlands, since their citizens died, they lost a lot of their compatriots, they probably have interest in placing dots over I. Unlike RAF, do you believe that perhaps this will happen?

Sofya Kornienko: I think this will happen. It seems to me that it is very important to separate two investigations that are carried out. I see in the Russian press that they are completely not divided. In my opinion, it is not clear to Russian listeners that two instances completely independent of each other are engaged in two different investigations at all. One investigation is the drafts that you are talking about now, an investigation that is designed to reconstruct a crash, like a puzzle to collect the Boeing itself in pieces, it lies with pieces in a huge hangar, they again collect it into a single whole. This is the so -called investigation of the causes of the disaster. It is conducted by the Council of Safety of the Netherlands. The final report, as it was long known, will be published in October. In parallel, a criminal investigation is carried out for him, that is, there is an investigation on the fact of a crime - an attack on a passenger liner. In my opinion, this investigation is much more important, its results will have a much greater international resonance. There was a press conference on this investigation on Tuesday, for some reason in the Russian press I saw very little messages on this subject, much less than about the notorious draft, although it is precisely according to the results of this investigation that there will most likely be either an international tribunal or some court. The senior officer of the justice of the Netherlands, who leads the entire international investigative group, he said at a press conference on Tuesday that the investigation has advanced very seriously, is on the threshold of the disclosure of this crime, the international investigation group will soon present reasonable and convincing evidence. The version that the Boeing was shot down from the Republic of Kazakhstan "Buk", he called the main one, although other versions are still being considered. The investigation group has not yet been made a list of specific suspects, no one has been brought against anyone, but as he put it, several people are already in the attention of the investigators. That is, we can expect that by the time this investigation is completed, it will take a little longer, somewhere by the end of the year the final document is expected and its result, we will already have specific names of people who are suspected of this crime. As the head of the investigation group put it, he hopes that at that time by the end of the year, when the results of the investigation are known, he will be able to call for the heads of state or the arrest of these persons, or give their international names to be publicized. He cannot yet say in what form the process over them will take place, but the main thing, as it puts it so that it is a court or a tribunal. In the news, leaks recently leaks that the Netherlands allegedly wanted it to be a tribunal, he did not talk about this topic, he said that in any case it should be a court that would enjoy broad international support. He did not rule out that this could be carried out in absentia, for example, if these people are on Russian territory, they are not given, then this process can still go, although he said that this is the least desired script. And he also said in detail what the investigators did in Ukraine.

Elena Rykovtseva: Two different consequences are formally conducted, informally, without the results of one, it is impossible to call the guilty to another.

Raf Shakirov: I agree here, technically, you can completely reproduce completely, poskind, what happened to the plane, which exploded, in which place it exploded, who died from the explosion. All this picture can be reproduced - this is the technical part of the matter. Who launched? The armament of both sides is the same, nothing is unclear with dislocation, there are no suspects. I take off my hat to my comrades from Holland, but for some reason, on the basis of long experience and observation of such stories, I recall Karl del Ponte. Remember, she said: not today we will reveal tomorrow, surnames, names, Borodin was already called for interrogation. There, unlike this case, the names even appeared. And now, now, now, and then she was sent to a high -ranking position, up, to the side and investigation has stopped. Because Mr. Dutchman has not yet encountered politics, perhaps he is an honest investigator. He will turn to the state with a demand to hold these people accountable. Please tell me these states are divided into two camps. I want to recall the Tribunal in Yugoslavia. At first they threshed Serbs, then somehow it became awkward, they moved to other criminals. But all this stretched for years and as a result, so many criminals are still hiding, no one is particularly interested in bringing. Notice how much time has passed. I suspect that, as a rule, very powerful investigators end with an increase or leaving.

Elena Rykovtseva: We are talking about technical history, the draft is presented. This is a little strange moment that this draft should bypass all participating countries. How can they agree or disagree? It is quite obvious who agrees with what, who does not agree with what. Now the main thing is to set the deployment point. If the “beech” became the reason for this tragedy, then do you agree that the only one who can sit on a bench of the defendants is those who stood behind this “beech”, or someone else?

Raf Shakirov: This is already a war crime. People who work as tesaks press the trigger, receive orders of direct command, the command receives orders from above and so on. There is a calculation that launched this rocket, he has a battalion commander at the level, up to the commander and so on. For some reason, a colleague immediately mentioned that they can hide in Russia, implies this phrase that our side is already a priori. I can't say anything about this.

Elena Rykovtseva: Do I understand correctly that everything that we know about the probability of establishing these persons is that it is either the Russian or Ukrainian side, there are no options? This means either this will be the Ukrainian calculation, or the calculation of the DPR, LPR. Either it will be the Ukrainian command that gave this "Buk", or it will be the command of the DPR, LPR. If the Ukrainian side has the highest leadership, then the DPR, LPR does not exist in the form of the Russian Federation, it has never been recognized.

Raf Shakirov: All forensics, the whole story is a crime, it is built on the streets, on motives and on the investigation of the crime scene, restoration of the picture, all these related things. Further, the establishment of a circle of suspects, further their interrogation, witnesses and so on. As far as I understand, all such crimes are disclosed quickly enough if they go in hot pursuit and they have no political obstacle. Here are political obstacles at every step. Including, note that each of the parties has very powerful tools for influencing witnesses, on each of these links, I'm not talking about big policy and diplomacy, where no one will ever agree with anyone. Therefore, the best option is tightening for everyone.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sofya, as you imagine probable, I'm not talking about surnames and names, he says: a number of people who may appear before the court. We correctly listed the possibility, the probability of these figures?

Sofya Kornienko: I am completely incomprehensible to the skeptical comparison with Carla de Ponte, because her main task was to be arrested by Mladic and Karadzhich and bring to the Hague. She achieved a lot, and after her departure it was brought to the end. This skepticism is incomprehensible to me which investigation is completed - it is also incomprehensible, everything continues.

Raf Shakirov: The fact is that our entire profession is built on precedents. If the Martians did not go down to us and there were no half -witnesses, then I probably will question the probability of the appearance of Martian. The same thing with criminal cases, with the court, with the tribunal in the Hague. Everything works as it works. I take off my hat before this investigator, he beats like a real investigator, he is an honest person. And the more honest he will be, the worse his fate will be.

Sofya Kornienko: The fact is that there was a lot of independent investigations, and they spill light a little on what the investigation group is doing. As you know, they have not yet disclosed anything from their investigative experiments. In particular, the fact that Sergei Parkhomenko published that certain places were found, from where, perhaps, the “beech” was launched, the soil was burned there, the samples of this soil were taken last week. Investigators in Ukraine watched where there are radio materials in the Donetsk and Lugansk region. In the Donetsk region, this succeeded, they were not allowed into the Lugansk region, but they hope that they will reach there. There are a lot of intercepted telephone conversations, in particular, a very small part was published in March, when the international investigative group turned to witnesses with a request to appear, witnesses to the Buka transportation. From these conversations, we have already seen that Major General GRU, who was talking a lot about the transportation of Buk, and there are a lot of such negotiations, they are not all deciphered. They have a lot of specific direct evidence, and this is what they are doing now, it will also be possible to go out on specific people in this way. What level people will be, it is difficult for me to tell me, because there were no statements on this subject. But I can assume that these will be direct performers, if they are still alive, such doubts are expressed, people whose voices are recorded on these wiretaps, and possibly those who were customers - this will already be somewhat successfully the investigation.

Raf Shakirov: I have to make one remark. In the American court, everything that was said by you, if you like Gardner, I really like his detectives, because they include not just like Agatha Christie Miss Marl knitted in a corner and understood everything at once. It seems to me that now, in our corner, Miss Marpl is knitting with these aircraft. Gardner has any phrase of one of the heroes: "I object, your honor, the witness speaks from other people's words." This is a classic of American justice. If you intercepted someone’s conversations somewhere and someone is suspected there, some general, not a single court in America will even consider this, it is ridiculous. Someone said something somewhere, somewhere burnt out points. Where is the evidence that it was the launch of the Buk, that this is the same territory? Let's conduct an investigation. But this will not work. So far, everything will be built on what is now given is called indirect evidence.

Elena Rykovtseva: You make two different statements. One statement that, in principle, is impossible to establish the perpetrator, and the second - that if he is established, then such a political inappropriateness may happen, in connection with which this will not be made public, shuffled, clamped. Why would the Dutch be blurred?

Raf Shakirov: I apologize, and who are the Dutch?

Elena Rykovtseva: An interested party.

Raf Shakirov: They make a decision whether there will be an international court in the Hague or not? No, not them. There are large uncles and aunts who will make this decision.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, you say that the Dutch can be investigated honestly, but this is not a fact that the Dutch will take further sanctions.

Raf Shakirov: I do not want to say that the Dutch will be able to reach the end, present convincing and clear evidence, direct evidence, so it was, as they say, indisputable evidence, and not indirect with hints of thin ones, which no one knows. I’m talking about this not because I am defending someone, it’s just that this is experience in this kind of affairs. I've been in journalism for a hundred years. Karadzhich was attracted, of course, she managed to attract him, because the western side first of all wanted to attract the Serbs, but then it turned out ugly and inconvenient. But they began to attract all other criminals on the other hand much later. Do you know why? Then there would be no indignation, and now any solution will lead to catastrophic consequences. Both sides are interested in investigating the collapse of Boeing?

Elena Rykovtseva: What sides?

Raf Shakirov: There are only two sides - West and we. Everyone is interested in resolving this conflict. All that will be done on this "Boeing" will be either made for settlement, or to undermine the settlement.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sofia and I do not agree with you that there is a Dutch side who wants to find the perpetrators.

Raf Shakirov: But she is not enough for this influence, I apologize.

Elena Rykovtseva: You say that there are two sides that they want to blur and they are unprofitable for them, but there is a side to which it is beneficial honest - this is Holland.

Raf Shakirov: People, relatives are interested. And do they achieve a lot? How many in life we achieve our honesty, our struggle. All that they dug is all that they dug up will either give a move, or will not give a move with only one single purpose - it will have political expediency or not.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sofya, do you agree that the Dutch will not decide how it will end? They can provide any research, evidence, but not their last word will be with the courts, with tribunals, and so on?

Sofya Kornienko: No one in Holland does not say that they solve something, such a statement of the issue is generally strange to me. Suppose the international tribunal, which is located in the Hague, in the former Yugoslavia, is also not the Dutch. In the same way, now the question is being raised about the conduct of the international tribunal for this crime. The fact that he will be in Holland does not mean that Holland will solve issues.

Elena Rykovtseva: In general, the territory has nothing to do, even in Washington. It’s just that Raf says that one country that conducts this investigation will provide its results, but this does not mean at all that these results will go to the next step.

Раф Шакиров: Обнародованы, имеют политические последствия, и на основании их будут приняты политические решения главами государств, США, Великобритания, Франция, страны НАТО, условно говоря. Если они сочтут нужным, что нужно разыграть, они это разыграют. И тут возникает следующий вопрос: что они будут разыгрывать? Мы можем в таком случае говорить об объективном независимом расследовании?

Софья Корниенко: Мне кажется, что принципиально, может быть это русский подход, я у россиян часто вижу принципиально неверный подход, на мой взгляд, изначально ничему не верить, считать, что все это подстроено, теории заговора постоянные. Если они заручатся поддержкой Совбеза ООН по этому трибуналу, то это будет достаточно широкая поддержка всего мира, тогда сложно говорить, что это невозможно прозрачно провести, если это будет открытый процесс.

Раф Шакиров: В Совбезе ООН находятся Россия и Китай, этого достаточно, чтобы никакого решения не было принято, они имеют право вето. Более того, до Совбеза ООН не дойдет.

Елена Рыковцева: Если Голландия дорасследовалась до того, что это был украинский "Бук", тогда Россия с удовольствием все это проголосует.

Софья Корниенко: Я хочу сказать, что благодаря тому, что у Голландии такая хорошая репутация, в отличие от российских следователей, специалистов, которые недавно отчет опубликовали, который оказался фотошопом, Голландия в этом пока не будет уличена. Оба отчета, один появится в октябре, а другой в декабре, они наверняка будут восприняты всерьез мировой общественностью, даже если поддержки Совбеза у них не будет и даже если дело не дойдет до очень серьезного трибунала в присутствии обвиняемых. Если будут преданы огласке результаты, если все будет подробно известно, будут названы имена, то, мне кажется, это будет колоссальный резонанс.

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