Castro: Dangerous friendship with the USA?

President Obama is sure that the exchange of people, ideas and trading with Cuba democratize the country faster than embargo

Was a half -century Cuban Cuban Strategy of the United States? How can the Cuban experiment of Barack Obama turn into? Can trade become more effective than the embargo? Why in a cube milk - on cards?

We discuss these and other issues with Honored Professor of the University of Columbia in New York, Herbert Klein , an employee of the American foreign policy Council by Stephen Blanc , Radio Marty, Alvaro Alba and an employee of the Giverov Institute , Mikhail Burnstam .

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Today in America: dangerous friendship of Castro with the USA

On July 1, President Obama made a statement to the restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba. Explaining his decision to abandon the Cuban isolation strategy, which was almost 55 years old, President Obama stated that the former approach not only did not give results. “Instead of supporting democracy and opportunities for the Cuban people, our attempts to isolate Cuba, despite the nobility of intentions, more and more led to the opposite result, strengthening the status quo and isolation of the United States from our neighbors in the Western Hemisphere,” the president announced. According to him, the opening of the embassy and other measures to expand contacts with Cubans will help America more effectively contribute to the approval of universal values in a cube - freedom of speech and meetings, the possibility of accessing information.

Barack Obama makes a statement on the establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba July 1, 2015

“Yes, there are still those who want to turn back and double the bet on the isolation policy, but it has long been time to understand that this approach does not work. He excludes America from the future Cuba and makes life worse for Cubans,” President Obama emphasized, announcing that from July 20 the US representative office and Cuba in Washington will receive embassy status.

This step of the White House was not unexpected. Public opinion polls in the United States show that most Americans are to normalize relations with Cuba. Even the most persistent group of opponents of the Cuban regime - Cuban immigrants and their children born in the United States changed their persistent resistance to the idea of canceling the embargo to careful consent with the idea of restoring diplomatic and economic relations with Gavana.

But critics, and among them some leading American lawmakers and American newspapers put forward a fundamental claim to the supporters of reconciliation. It consists in the fact that the president, in fact, surrendered to the Castro brothers, entering the principle that his predecessors held over the half -month. “The Obama administration realized the dream of the Castro brothers, giving them the right to legitimacy, while not having achieved anything for the Cuba people, which is oppressed by the brutal communist regime,” the speaker of the House of Representatives John Bayner interprets the president’s step. Republican lawmakers, including several immigrants from the families of Cuban immigrants, are not ready to easily abandon their old Antikastrov beliefs. They intend to put a bandwagon to the president in his path to complete reconciliation with the Cuban regime. They threaten to block the nomination of the American ambassador to Cuba, they even refuse to talk about the cancellation of the economic embargo, which means that it will probably remain in force until the end of Obama’s presidency. The Washington Post newspaper in an editorial commentary sets out its objections in a milder form: “We are not against establishing diplomatic contacts or opening US embassies in countries like Cuba. But the first results of the Barack Obama’s initiative emphasize, which he missed, without demanding even a slight mitigation of repressions in exchange for political and economic economic The ransom of the failed regime. " The newspaper cited data on the sharp tightening of political persecution in Cuba over the past six months, which have passed after the first announcement of the White House on the normalization of American-Cuban relations.

The abolition of the embargo is considered by many commentators as an experiment worth the risk

But, by and large, the restoration of diplomatic relations with Gavana and the prospect, even if in the distant future, the abolition of the embargo is considered by many commentators as an experiment standing risk. The risk is that the new "greenhouse" conditions will give the opportunity to find a new life. Hope is that if the embargo does not work, why not try expanded contacts with Cuba - both political and economic - as a means against the dictatorship. So, for example, according to Herbert Klein, Honored Professor of Columbia University in New York.

- The purpose of this measure was to undermine the regime, but it did not work. Say, the first year or two after its introduction was reason to expect that such a measure could give results, ”says Herbert Klein . - But Castro, having a gigantic support from the Soviet Union, managed to quickly adapt to new circumstances. Washington was forced to recognize the viability of the Cuban regime and act on the basis of the fact that he would delay for a long time. At the same time, the system that has developed in the post -Soviet era can hardly be called a full -fledged embargo. The United States has long been supplying food to Cuba. More than a third of the country's population receives money transfers from its loved ones from the United States. Even before the last steps to mitigate relations from Miami, seven daily flights were sent to Havana.

- In such an interpretation, this embargo, supported by ten presidents, looks like a symbolic, so to speak, trinket?

For decades in Florida there was a strong electoral group of immigrants from Cuba with their influential political lobby

- It was not a trifle in the sense that it was a reaction to an American domestic political request. For decades in Florida there was a strong electoral group of immigrants from Cuba with their influential political lobby. The results of the elections in Florida often inclined the results of the presidential election in favor of a candidate. Due to this, not one of the presidents, with the exception of Jimmy Carter in the seventies, did not try to change anything in the strategy, which, in my opinion, did not bring any results.

- One of the arguments of supporters of the abolition of the embargo is that the totalitarian regime will not survive the economic changes that will inevitably come with the abolition of the embargo and the expansion of relations with the United States. Say, cooperation, trade can be stronger than the embargo. Your prediction: what can follow the abolition of the embargo?

The building "Special Section of the US interests in Cuba" at the Embassy of Switzerland in Havana

- It depends on how much the regime weakens its control over society. He is known for the ability to take two steps forward, and then retreat a step. It is very difficult to predict what will happen after the expansion of relations with the United States. Apparently, one of the results of this step will be the influx of American tourists to the island, a weakening of the Cubans departure regime. But, on the other hand, Cuba and Cubans are not at all isolated from the world. Two million Canadian tourists come to the island annually, but Castro, nevertheless, was able to maintain full control over the population. The Obama administration is trying to exert pressure on Castro in the field of respect for human rights as a condition for the restoration of ties, but not quite successful. In the past, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Castro brothers started reforms, but as soon as these steps brought some results or, thanks to third-party assistance, it was possible to discharge the pressure of the crisis situation, everything returned to its circles. In a word, the question of whether the expansion of Cuba and the United States contacts will lead to a loosening of the Castro regime remains an open question.

- It is curious that many critics of Washington said that the American embargo is the cause of Cuba’s troubles, poverty on the island. President Obama almost directly said this, but in reality the cube is not cut off from the world, it supports economic ties with many countries. Foreign companies own, for example, hotels in Cuba. The reasons, nevertheless, apparently others?

The regime is able to provide for the population only the most minimum level of consumption of first necessities

- The fact is that a primitive economy has been created in Cuba, they will export almost nothing, and they have no special means to buy foreign goods. Take the sugar industry - it is divorced. Vietnam produces more sugar than cube. The regime is capable of providing for the population only the most minimum level of consumption of first necessities. When I was there the last time a year ago, they distributed milk on cards. The economic system that exists on the island does not function. It came, for example, to the point that they could not build a port themselves. Brazilians built it for Cuba, in fact, for free. The only real result of the embargo is the lack of access to the American financial markets and entering the American consumer market. And nothing more.

- Nevertheless, paradoxically, the Cuban authorities, as some observers write, can proclaim the victory: the Castro regime was the only one to resist more than half a century of US pressure? Do you agree with this conclusion?

-In a sense, this is so. Castro still remain in power, and Washington is forced to recognize this fact. Fidel Castro and the regime created by him survived many American presidents, they survived the Soviet Union. When Castro was seriously ill, there were questions about whether the system he created will stand. She resisted. At the same time, the Castro brothers did not follow the Chinese or the Vietnamese path of development, creating an authoritarian regime with a relatively open economy. This did not happen, and no one really knows whether this will happen.

- Alvaro Alba, critics of this decision of Barack Obama say that he wants to leave his historical memory, acting contrary to the interests of both the USA and the Cuban people. How do you explain the step of the president?

“ I do not think that this desire of Obama to become famous is just an objective position in the world,” says Alvaro Alba . - Americans have diplomatic relations with Vietnam. The prestige of America in Latin America depends on the ties with Cuba, Obama understood this, and did so.

- And how would you answer the statements of the American critics of this step, that in fact the United States, in fact, betray Cuban dissidents?

- For example, dissidents say that this is a good step, they want through the American embassy, through American organizations, through American universities to receive knowledge, take part in international conferences and present everything that they must present to the world about human rights in Cuba. Yesterday I talked with Guillermo Farinyas, the Laureate of the Sakharov Prize, he told me that thanks to this new open relationship, he could visit a calmly American mission in Havana, where he could submit all his demands, proposals, before that he was not allowed repeatedly. But there are those who say that Obama betrayed the Cuban community, especially who lives in Miami. Another very important point is Americans of Cuban origin who are sitting in the Capitol, senators that they will say in the future-this, in my opinion, is very significant.

- Is it known how many political prisoners are now in Cuban prisons, or are they released?

-Now about 60 about 60.

- Castro released the prisoners who were supposed to be released as a condition for restoring relations?

- There was a list of 53, of these 53, half were political prisoners, half were criminal. This is the same tactics that was done in 1980.

- Yes, this is a well -known episode when Castro, under the guise of opposition, released from prisons and sent Cuban criminals to the United States. Professor Bernsstam, what do you think is behind this decision of President Obama? The desire to celebrate in history even at the cost of refusing to support democratic forces in Cuba, how is the president of his criticism reproach?

America needed to hold this blockade, hold this embargo because Cuba ... was a strategic threat to the United States for a long time

“ President Obama made a statement, explaining his steps himself,” says Mikhail Bernshtam . - He explained that the reasons are purely ideological, the whole policy, according to him, has failed over the past 55 years, did not give any results, now the time has come to abandon this policy. That is, he put all the blame on the United States, and in this situation the Cuban government looks like a victim. In fact, following this logic, we can say that President Kennedy was wrong when he forced the Soviet Union to take out a rocket with nuclear warheads from Cuba during the Caribbean crisis. But here is an interesting turn of history, history is repeated. Once, Columbus went to Asia, and sailed to Cuba, opened Cuba, thought it was China. So President Obama, too, for reasons that are completely wrong, he, nevertheless, took a right step. America needed to hold this blockade, hold this embargo, because Cuba, being an ally of the Soviet Union, being a guide for the Soviet foreign and military policy, was a strategic threat to the United States for a long time, while the Soviet Union existed.

- Professor, but we must make a reservation that until the embargo is removed and it is unlikely to be removed in the near future.

- Yes, only Congress can take the embargo. All these restrictions existed for geopolitical reasons. These geopolitical and strategic considerations of history have disappeared, now the economic development of Cuba, which will be accelerated by these steps, it is in the interests of the United States and, most importantly, it is in the interests of the Cuban people. That is, President Obama gave ideological considerations, but this step is not justified for ideological reasons, it is justified by practical and humanistic, humanitarian considerations. If there is some prospect of democratization in Cuba in the long term, it will just follow from economic development and technological development, the Internet will get there, cell phones will get there, there will be some kind of civil society, it will develop.

-Alvaro Alba, why, after all, the Cuban community in the United States has been opposing reconciliation with Castro for so long, even despite its attempts, as Professor Bernshtam says, reforms?

- The Cuban community is afraid that the United States simply turn a blind eye to the fact that such a step can help the current regime survive. While Raul Castro is alive, but after his death or before his death, his son, the Minister of the Interior, who was even represented by Obama in Panama in April, he studied in Moscow, at the KGB Academy, can come to power. An example of what is happening in Russia is now most worried about the Cuban community or Cuban opposition inside Cuba that Cuban security forces will take as an example everything that President Putin and his environment do.

- Is it possible, from your point of view?

- There is an opinion that the Cuban elite is preparing to preserve the same dynasty in power. An example is Syria when the senior Assad died, and they very well welcomed Bashar al -Assad.

- According to the results of a very curious survey of public opinion, more than eighty percent of Cubans are very good about Barack Obama and only about forty -five experience similar feelings for the Castro brothers. With this attitude, the Castro dynasty, it would seem, should there be small chances of survival? I don’t know, however, is it possible to trust these results.

“ Yes, this is very correct, they love Obama, they think that the Americans will come, three million American tourists will give them money, they will develop tourism,” says Alvaro Alba. - I have not yet seen tourism bring democracy to China, to other regimes in the world.

- Do you think that you should not expect an uprising from the people, the desire to overthrow this regime, despite its unpopularity?

For Cuban elites, Putin's example is very attractive

- There will be no rebellion. The Cuban authorities studied very well that it was in Nicaragua, they are very concerned about what was in Poland, strikes, which were carried out "solidarity" led by Lech Valensa. For them, it became a lesson how the Soviet Union broke up. They are very afraid of "color revolutions", they adopted those methods that are now used in Russia. For Cuban elites, Putin's example is very attractive. Снова отправляют в военные академии России кубинских молодых офицеров, опять возобновляют военное сотрудничество, и даже кубинские юристы едут в Москву изучать, какие законы могут быть приемлемы для Кубы, особенно в ограничении интернета, контроля над социальными медиа.

– Профессор Бернштам, не заставляют ли эти данные, приведенные Альваро Альбой, более скептично относиться к идее, заключающейся в том, что экономика может оказаться более сильным инструментом, чем эмбарго?

Сама логика экономического развития в контексте именно Кубы – не везде в мире, а именно Кубы – постепенно приведет к определенной степени политической либерализации

​ – Сама логика экономического развития в контексте именно Кубы – не везде в мире, а именно Кубы – постепенно приведет к определенной степени политической либерализации. Потому что Куба – это не отсталая страна, Куба – это страна с высокой системой образования, одной из лучших в мире систем здравоохранения, Куба сейчас принадлежит к числу стран со средним доходом, то есть это выше, чем на Украине, выше, чем в Индии. С 2005 года наблюдается высокий экономический рост в среднем по 7 процентов в год. На Кубе проводятся экономические реформы примерно, приблизительно говоря, по китайскому образцу. Сейчас одну из основных статей экспорта Кубы составляют фармацевтические товары.

– Вся эта статистика очень любопытна, но мой собеседник, бывавший на Кубе, говорит, что, по крайней мере, если судить со стороны, народ живет крайне бедно. По его мнению, в условиях сохранения такого режима перспективы, так сказать, нормального развития Кубы крайне сомнительны. Альваро, что можно сказать об уровне жизни кубинцев?

– Экономические реформы Кастро был вынужден начать. Потому что страна, особенно после смерти Уго Чавеса, оказалась в таком положении, что без американских инвестиций они не могут просуществовать. Да, цифры они дают красивые. Министр экономики Кубы сказал, что рост экономики составил 4 процента по сравнению с прошлым годом – это значит выше, чем в Чили сейчас. Но чилийцы не убегают из Чили, чтобы поехать на Кубу, а кубинцы бегут в Чили и в любую другую страну.

– И, как сказал мне профессор Херберт Клайн, человек, который бывал на Кубе, до сих пор там молоко по карточкам.

По карточкам дают молоко раз в неделю, если у вас сын или дочка меньше 7 лет, старше 7 лет уже не дадут молока

​ – Молоко по карточкам, и яйца по карточкам. Но они по карточкам дают молоко раз в неделю, если у вас сын или дочка меньше 7 лет, старше 7 лет уже не дадут молока.

– А деньги, чтобы его купить, есть?

– Кубинцы получают песо, а должны покупать на конвертируемые песо, – говорит Альваро Альба. – Один конвертируемый песо стоит 25. Средняя заработная плата кубинцев составляет где-то 25-30 конвертируемых песо. Они не могут покупать яйца, которые стоят по три кубинских конвертируемых песо.

– Чем ответите, профессор Бернштам?

На Кубе есть высокий уровень человеческого капитала, то есть образование, здравоохранение

​ – Важно, что произойдет в будущем и какие перспективы. На Кубе есть высокий уровень человеческого капитала, то есть образование, здравоохранение. Очень важно, что одна из самых высоких продолжительностей жизни на Кубе – 79 лет в среднем. В России, для сравнения, 69, на 10 лет меньше, то есть кубинцы живут дольше, чем россияне. Часть – это климат, но часть – это более хорошая система здравоохранения. У Кубы есть перспективы.

– Я согласен с вами, что у Кубы имеются перспективы, но до сих пор кубинцы уезжают из страны, потому что нет возможности свободно выражаться, быть предпринимателем или быть свободным журналистом. Кубинцы уезжают в Чили, уезжают в Индию, уезжают в Австралию, – говорит Альваро Альба.

– Хорошо, профессор Бернштам считает, что восстановление отношений США и Кубы, потенциальная отмена эмбарго принесет кубинцам замечательные перемены. Альваро, вы как человек, внимательно следящий за происходящим на Кубе, что думаете? Какие шансы даете на то, что надежды на демократизацию страны, на замену нынешнего режима осуществятся?

– Кубинцы будут сейчас шире принимать участие в экономическом процессе, предприниматели кубинско-американские смогут инвестировать на Кубу. В экономическом плане, я думаю, будут очень большие сдвиги, проблема здесь в политическом плане. В Кубе остается однопартийная система, там есть режим, который имеет право указывать, что говорить, что не говорить, они не дают свободы слова населению. Пока я это не вижу в ближайшем или в течение одной пятилетки, чтобы что-то менялось в этом плане.

– Альваро Альба, самый удивительный, на мой взгляд, вывод социологического опроса кубинцев состоял в том, что 55 процентов населения покинуло бы страну, если бы у них была возможность это сделать. То есть если Куба откроет границы, то страна тут же опустеет. Помнится немало анекдотов на этот счет времен советской эпохи. Но все-таки Россия не опустела по этой причине. Do you believe that?

– Если будет возможность – будут уезжать. Потому что имеют родственников и в Испании, и в Америке, и в Чили, и в Австралии.

– Альваро, если ожидаемое примирение США и Кубы состоится, можно ли его рассматривать как некий удар по российским интересам или, точнее, надеждам?

– Как раз вчера я разговаривал с коллегами с московского телевидения, они сказали, что 53 процента москвичей, которых спросили, они думают, что это удар по России.

– Американский военный эксперт Стивен Бланк считает, что восстановление дипломатических отношений США с Кубой может стать ударом по России только в том случае, если Москва вынашивает некие, так сказать, подрывные планы в отношении латиноамериканского региона и Соединенных Штатов.

Куба играла важную роль в поддержке революционного режима в Анголе, в меньшей степени она была представлена в Эфиопии. Кубинцы пытались заниматься подрывной деятельностью в Южной Африке

​ – В 1970-е годы Куба была центральным инструментом советской стратегии распространения в Африке того, что они называли социализмом, – говорит Стивен Бланк . – Куба играла важную роль в поддержке революционного режима в Анголе, в меньшей степени она была представлена в Эфиопии. Кубинцы пытались заниматься подрывной деятельностью в Южной Африке. В 1980-е всему этому пришел конец, а вскоре не стало и Советского Союза. Потеряв поддержку со стороны СССР, Куба утратила значение инструмента влияния Москвы и ее значимость в глазах США сильно снизилась. Сейчас, насколько я понимаю, Россия ставит на Никарагуа в качестве центра своего влияния в Латинской Америке. Русские сохраняют небольшое присутствие на Кубе, они, скорее всего, хотели бы возродить там свое военное присутствие, но это будет труднее сделать, если на Кубе будет американское посольство и голос США зазвучит в Гаване гораздо громче. Вряд ли присутствие американцев на Кубе сыграет большую роль, пока Рауль Кастро остается у власти, но он не вечен.

– А что стоит, по-вашему, за заявлениями Москвы о развитии военного сотрудничества с некоторыми латиноамериканскими странами, за отправкой, например, кораблей-шпионов на Кубу? Это символические жесты или нечто более серьезное?

Российский разведывательный корабль "Виктор Леонов" в порту Гаваны

​ – Это не символика с точки зрения Путина, насколько я понимаю, это часть масштабного противостояния США. В 2008 году, по некоторым данным, он пообещал Чавесу поддержку в войне с Колумбией, что явилось бы атакой на союзника США. В то же время Медведев, Патрушев и Сечин совершали вояжи в Латинскую Америку, пытаясь сколотить антиамериканский альянс. Вспомним, что в то же время Виктор Бут вел переговоры о поставках вооружений колумбийской антиправительственной группировке "Фарк". Все это является частью путинской антиамериканской стратегии.

– Альваро Альба, мы с вами и с профессором Бернштамом дали волю воображению, но а если вернуться к реальности. Президент Обама совершил лишь пока минимальный шаг на пути к восстановлению нормальных отношений с Кубой, объявив об открытии посольств. Пока не разрешен ни туризм на Кубу, ни тем более инвестиции, торговля с ней. Для всего этого нужны специальные решения Конгресса. Какова вероятность того, что это произойдет в обозримом будущем?

– Пока в Конгрессе будет Республиканская партия и те конгрессмены и сенаторы, которые против, будет очень трудно для Обамы снимать эмбарго.