Reforms - the victory of the Euroborlars

Vitaliy Portnikov: Will the Ukrainian economy be in the situation in which the country ended up after the events of 2013-14 and subsequent conflicts around the Crimea and the eastern regions of Ukraine? What needs to be done to stabilize the financial system and how much the hryvnia can stabilize the Ukrainian economy today? We are talking about all this today in our Kiev studio with the rector of the International Institute of Business , the former deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine Alexander Savchenko .

The issue of the stability of the financial system, it seems to me, is one of the most important in the situation that has developed in Ukraine. On the one hand, now this does not cause any special worries, but on the other, we saw how the hryvnia grew, literally like on yeast-from 8 hryvnias per dollar to 30, then dropped to more than 20 more. Now the question arises, can such a jump occur at any moment again? What are the basics of Ukrainian financial stability, if they are?

There is still a margin of strength, but it is reduced

Alexander Savchenko: Of course, there is. There is still a margin of strength, but it is reduced. Now negotiations with creditors are a factor in the stability or instability of the financial system. But you are right that you started with the financial system, because all the crises begin with its destabilization, and the revival of the economy always begins after the financial system is stabilized. This is especially necessary for our ministers and heads of the National Bank.

What needs to be done is the question. And are there any problems with the hryvnia in the future? In my opinion, of course, there is. This stability, which we have achieved, is based on administrative, in fact, Soviet methods of regulation, on prohibitions, inadmissions, restrictions for people, business. Now a lot of businesses are leaving the economy, they cannot buy currency, cannot pay in time, they lose markets, lose authority. In my opinion, it was these administrative methods that led to the fact that last year we fell by 7%, and in this - now the International Monetary Fund agreed that it was 9, and my fall figure was 10%. All this is due to the instability of the financial system.

Now about the hryvnia. Since it is based on these administrative methods that block the development of the economy, lead to a fall in GDP, sooner or later we must refuse this. The process of refusal, unfortunately, will lead to devaluation, which I predict at the end of the year to 27-28 hryvnias per dollar. The fact that a slight devaluation is currently happening is caused by two facts: first of all, unsuccessful negotiations with creditors, and secondly, in the fact that they began to pay large deposits of Bankrot banks “Nadra” and “Delta”. People have already received the first billion, they will receive somewhere else 15 billion. What should they do with this money? There is nowhere to invest, they are afraid to put in banks. They buy in currency and stimulate devaluation.

The issue of the stability of the financial system is one of the most important in the situation that has developed in Ukraine

Vitaly Portnikov: Tell me, in such an economic situation, Ukraine does not resemble Greece, only outside the European Union? The company has very high expectations from the point of view of social obligations that are almost impossible to fulfill, there is no industry that could support the economy. There is, I would say, an illusory idea of my own economic capabilities. There is a power that, maybe, would like to carry out some reforms, but is forced to somehow react to public expectations.

Alexander Savchenko

Alexander Savchenko: In a sense, it reminds, but fundamentally-no. What is the main difference? In Greece, wages and pensions are inflated. They are now at the level of developed European countries, and a few years ago, there was more wages at the Central Bank of Greece than in Germany. In Ukraine, the situation is the opposite - wages are reduced to a minimum. And what is good for Ukraine is bad for Greece. In Greece, it is necessary to reduce bureaucratic expenses mainly through a decrease in wages, and in Ukraine it is necessary to increase wages in order to stimulate domestic demand.

It is necessary to increase wages in order to stimulate internal demand

There are similar moments - this is a duty. Although Ukrainian duty compared to Greek is very small; If we talk about private investors, then we are talking about $ 20-25 billion-this is a state guaranteed debt. In Greece - 300 billion. Therefore, in Ukraine, theoretically fewer problems. 20 billion even for Ukraine at the stage of its development is nothing. When I worked at the National Bank 10 years ago, we could freely pay 5-6 billion by attracting new foreign exchange media. That is, as soon as Ukraine enters the trajectory of economic growth, 20 billion, which the Minister of Finance is now reported with heroism that it is fighting for restructuring - in fact it is nothing. In my opinion, this is a very erroneous position. The creditors suggested that we stretch the payment of debts for 10 years and reduce the interest rate, especially in the first years of exit from the crisis. The Government of Ukraine offers to write off 40% of debts. This is a catastrophic error, because debts are written off for everyone with default. It will be believed that Ukraine had a default - this is a black spot on our economic history; Until now, we had no default. We once restructured a debt. Lenders say: you are stupid people, we offer you the best option, you will pay integally less, save the same 16 billion in 10 years, you will have a reputation.

The Government of Ukraine offers to write off 40% of debts. This is a catastrophic error, because the debt is associated with all with default

Here - the behavior of the ball: we want to take new funds, but we do not want to pay off old debts. I am talking about such a formula based on the statistics of economic crises and defaults that each dedicated dollar turns into a loss of $ 3-5 over the next 3, 6, 7 years. That is, investments will not come to us, long -term loans will not come. Paradox: The more we write off, the less we will lose in the near future. This suggests that the government lives today, it wants to write off 40%now, and what will happen in two years, he is not interested. I am interested in what will happen in two, three, four years.

Vitaly Portnikov: Then tell me what to do with these Putin three billions that Russia lent Viktor Yanukovych?

There is only one way to solve this problem, not to pay these debts - to make a claim for the annexation of Crimea and win this claim in the International Court

Alexander Savchenko: The decision is also very simple, and it is also amazing why we do not use it. There is only one way to solve this problem, not to pay these debts is to make a claim for the annexation of Crimea and win this claim in an international court. But you need to make more than one claim that the Ministry of Justice wants to make, count on trillion, and then sue for a hundred years - no, only stupid people do so. It is necessary to present what is very easy to prove. Suppose, "Boyko Hites" - 300 million euros. A hryvnia was stolen from the National Bank, foreign exchange reserves were stolen, there is an exact amount. At Neftegaz, gas was stolen for half a billion, he was there according to the documents.

Vitaly Portnikov: That is, you want to sue them not as violators of international law that annexed foreign territory, but as with banal small thiefs?

Alexander Savchenko: First with thieves, and then so. Moreover, we are incapable of suing, we must hire Western companies. If we had reasonable power, there would be no free hotels in Ukraine. To gain such cases about a hundred, to invite law companies - they would work, and everything would have buzzed. Already, I assure you, they would have won something, some two or three billion.

Vitaliy Portnikov: But Russia also has money for legal companies, and a lot.

Alexander Savchenko: Therefore, first you need to take exclusively winning cases. And thus, when we do not pay Russia, it will go to court, the court will present us, we will not pay, they can arrest our property: what is happening with Russia now - throughout Europe arrest the property of Russia and accounts.

Vitaly Portnikov: Do you think that Ukraine may be in this position?

Alexander Savchenko: I even warned a year ago, wrote that you will wait for a situation where Yukos offenders will arrest Russian real estate and Russian business in Ukraine. I'm not joking - this can be in a month.

Vitaly Portnikov: Why not? Why is Ukraine worse than Belgium, France?

We must meet the representatives of the Yukos and transfer, for example, the bank to Russia to new owners

Alexander Savchenko: We must meet the representatives of the Yukos and transfer, for example, the bank to Russia to new owners.

Vitaly Portnikov: And is Sberbank of Russia Sberbank is not a private enterprise?

Alexander Savchenko: He is a public-private one, the state owns a control package. You made a remark correctly, this is a difficult case. Suppose VTB is an exclusively state bank. You can’t wait and reason, fantasize about trillions, you need to work on millions. If we do not have time before the first quarter of next year to win our claims in the courts of more than three billion, then Russia will arrest our property abroad: our planes, our ships, our accounts. That's what we can reach due to unprofessionalism of our power.

Vitaly Portnikov: On the other hand, perhaps in all this there is some element of political bargaining: we do not make specific claims for the Crimea, and Russia will not make judicial claims for non -payment of debt, and everyone will continue to resolve issues exclusively in the dialogue of the presidents.

Alexander Savchenko: I do not exclude that there is such a subcover agreement.

Vitaly Portnikov: How, in principle, we can count on any investment in the situation that has developed in the country when there are no guarantees of the preservations of these investments, there is no stable currency, but is there any desire to receive these investments? I can’t imagine what anchor for investors can be now ...

If we allow default, then for two or three years private investors will never come here

Alexander Savchenko: That's right, and investors do not see this anchor! There are two types of investors. The first is huge multinational companies such as McDonald's, Coca-Cola, they are presented with us. They are not afraid of cataclysms, revolutions, wars, they are stronger and durable than countries, history, cataclysms, they will invest. But this is not enough. Ikea will come, for example, is a very large company, it is no longer afraid of it, it can invest. But these are not real investors, it is very difficult for Ukraine to have something with them. Real investors are small and medium -sized businesses, these are tens of thousands of Italian, German companies that should be here. We will not wait for them for two reasons: the first is a war. Until the war is over, they will not come here. The second reason is non -formality, corruption, poor image of Ukraine even among international financial organizations. Naturally, they support us, but in negotiations they are already tired of demanding: restore order, create transparent procedures. Let's hope that they will win. The third reason is default. If we admit default and debiting, then, as statistics show, for two or three years private investors will never come here even with other favorable factors. Therefore, in no case should we allow default. And then it is already corny - to end the war.

It is easy to say - overcome corruption and begin reforms. For 25 years, we launched corruption, but did not start reforms.

Vitaly Portnikov: Why did it so happen that corruption has become the meaning of the existence of the Ukrainian bureaucratic apparatus? Or is it a request for the ease of solving the problem with the help of money?

Alexander Savchenko: I will tell the episode from the time when it all started. This is 1992-93, when the Germans began to help us. Before that, there was no corruption. She was in another form: a bottle of cognac, a bottle of vodka, telephone right, cakes. Then the Germans decided to help us, issued, in fact, a billion dollars, introduced a guarantee system. They gave a loan, for example, for 10 years and took in advance for insurance of all risks one and a half percent a year. Our officials involved in the distribution of this money dawned on: the Germans take 15% in advance. The first corrupt percentage arose - 15%. The director of the company received money by 15% less. Then the officials say: the Germans took 15%, we organized all this, we will take another 15%. The director is already receiving 70%. Then he believes: I can’t give it - I will take 15%for myself.

Vitaly Portnikov: Where are these hundred?

All people go to power to make their lives better

Alexander Savchenko: They all disappeared, not a single penny returned. So with this money, communist, socialist parties appeared, they all went into pockets, the state then paid. Somewhere in these years, large percentages of corruption began. Why was she so rooted? Our structures think that they choose deputies, appoint ministers, choose the president, that is, people go to power in order to do good for them, and they expect that the new president will do better for them. In fact - no, all people go to power to make their lives better.

Vitaly Portnikov: But it should not be in a democratic society.

Alexander Savchenko: This is the nature of man: each person maximizes his benefit, his income.

Self -realization as president, political success - this is also profitable

Vitaly Portnikov: But the benefit can be different: self -realization as president, political success is also profitable.

Alexander Savchenko: Yes, but now it is associated mainly with money. It is much easier to nouveau riche or thief to get into parliament or even become a president, because he has a thirst for receiving money stronger than all restraining factors, even the risk factors for prison, as Yanukovych had. When people are aware of this, they must stop being naive and create conditions under which those who go to power should come out of it as poor, minimize all the possibilities to increase their wealth in power. The only way is total control, total suspicion, total distrust, total show inside out.

Vitaly Portnikov: Such a gloomy life ...

Alexander Savchenko: For many people, for Angel Merkel, for example, this is a normal life. She does not hide anything, she has nothing to hide. When this is done, then other people will really go into power, and businessmen will shy away from her. It is not enough for people to realize, there should still be, except for journalism, media, structures that should be practiced professionally, and we are now appearing. Therefore, there is a hope that they will put 10-15 thieves who sit in parliament.

Vitaly Portnikov: That is, you want to say that in the current parliament there are "thieves in law"?

There is a hope that they will put 10-15 thieves who are in parliament

Alexander Savchenko: Yes, and people support them and love them. In fact, the “thief in law” is more understandable to our people than some professional, an intellectual-he is alien to the people. I must say that our people are poor, uneducated, uncultured, does not read books. He reads 10 times less books than the average German or European. Nevertheless, our people - freedom -loving, rebellious, loves to control. These qualities, I think, will eventually allow him to lead to a new government ...

Vitaly Portnikov: But where will this new government come from if people are very easy to deceive, as you say, and those who are in the political elite really see the possibility of earnings as the main value?

Alexander Savchenko: When the possibility of earnings is completely excluded ... Take the president: for example, he promised to sell the business - yes, he sells. But, if there was a law that if he did not sell within a month, then the state property fund organizes a competition and sells in a month, would this person think, to go to the presidency or not? We cannot even blame the president that he does not sell: this is a normal feeling - he wants to sell expensive or even save the business. If the system and society allow, why not?

Vitaly Portnikov: Society just says very actively: it would want it to sell business.

Alexander Savchenko: But for this there is no forced mechanism. And abroad all this is. When there will be such mechanisms, filters, barriers, I assume that there will be much fewer such people will go to power, and normal people will go there with a pure soul, conscience, with many knowledge.

Vitaly Portnikov: In fact, you want to create a barrier for businessmen. I remember my colleague Julia Latynina wanted to make a selective qualification for those who have no property so that they could not even vote. The question arises here - where is this golden mean?

Когда будут фильтры, заслоны, во власть будут идти нормальные люди с чистой душой и совестью

​ Александр Савченко: В 99% из 100 – это природа человека, на этом базируется вся позитивная экономическая наука не только у нас, но и за рубежом. Давайте возьмем простого украинца, который критикует президента, посадим его во власть. Я подозреваю, что он будет максимизировать все, чтобы его доход возрос. Поэтому должны быть фильтры. Я не говорю – забирать собственность, но сделать ограничения и прозрачную процедуру. Допустим, не Ротшильд будет управлять в трасте, а Фонд государственного имущества. Какой Фонд государственного имущества, такой будет и эффект от операции, тогда все будет прозрачно и хорошо, и доход у президента не должен расти. Вы знаете, что все успешные президенты, которые ничего не зарабатывали, если они честно и хорошо заканчивали, то потом становились мультимиллионерами через лекции, участие во всяких кампаниях и так далее.

Виталий Портников: Знаете, одно дело – послушать лекцию президента Соединенных Штатов, а другое – заплатить такие же деньги президенту Украины или любой другой восточноевропейской страны. Мне кажется, знания наших политиков не так сильно интересуют общественность, как, допустим, лекции Клинтона или Буша.

Александр Савченко: Значит, не создали такую репутацию. Будет стимул…

Виталий Портников: Мы остановились на президентской институции, а здесь же очень важно, чтобы заинтересованность в успехе была не только у конкретного главы государства, а и у представителей системы, членов правительства, депутатов, – это все должно быть сверху донизу. То, что вы говорите – это переформатирование модели успеха.

Победить коррупцию можно только тогда, когда у нас будет европейская власть

​ Александр Савченко: Фильтры должны быть. Победить коррупцию можно только тогда, когда у нас будет европейская власть. Европейская власть – это одна исполнительная власть, то есть должен быть премьер-министр, а президента быть не должно, или президент – это совесть и мораль нации. Запрещено участвовать в партиях, в политических движениях, влиять на политические процессы. Тогда парламент будет делиться на власть и оппозицию. А сейчас парламент структуризирован – возле какого олигарха? Или ты за президента, или за премьер-министра, или за новую оппозицию, то есть это не европейская структуризация. Это у нас азиатская структуризация. Президент борется с премьер-министром, а они должны бороться вместе.

Виталий Портников: По крайней мере, не публично.

Александр Савченко: Сейчас культурно, и это большое достижение. Нужно привнести европейскую модель. Какую сферу мы ни возьмем, везде она нужна. Возьмем Национальный банк, где может быть очень много коррупции. Рефинансирование на Западе автоматическое, правление не участвует, там правила определяют, кто и сколько получит, когда возвращать, просто машина работает, как закон природы. А у нас решает человек: я могу тебе дать, могу не дать, могу этому банку дать в 10 раз больше, а этому в 10 раз меньше. Так же непрозрачно работает валютный рынок. В Европе все отработано. По моему мнению, надо брать европейские механизмы, которые минимизировали бы коррупцию, внедрять их и стараться работать по их правилам. У меня еще большая надежда на еврочиновников, евробюрократов (их называют евроидиотами, потому что они очень прямолинейные). Они нам очень нужны. Я думаю, они победят наших бюрократов.

Vitaly Portnikov: How?

Надо брать европейские механизмы, которые минимизировали бы коррупцию, внедрять их и стараться работать по их правилам

​ Александр Савченко: Численностью и деньгами. Будут присылать все больше и больше людей, все больше и больше контролировать. Они так же делали и в Польше (но там все прошло более-менее быстро), в Румынии, боролись с Болгарией.

Виталий Портников: Кажется, не доборолись до конца.

Александр Савченко: Не доборолись, но наказывают. Они тоже тормозят, но намного лучше, чем наши.

Виталий Портников: С другой стороны, для этого нужно, чтобы Украина хотя бы приближалась к Европейскому союзу. Та модель, которую имеет сегодня Украина – это ассоциативная модель, она не дает возможности так наказывать и действовать, как это бывает в странах ЕС, разве что действительно только через деньги.

Александр Савченко: У нас понимают пока только деньги – это будет большое наказание. Все, что было позитивного в Украине, хоть какие-то реформы (и Кучма их делал, и Кравчук, и Ющенко), – было только под большим нажимом Международного валютного фонда, Мирового банка, ЕС, когда он говорил: дам деньги, если ты сделаешь вот это, вот это и вот это.

Виталий Портников: Мы сейчас видим, как это происходит с безвизовым режимом: есть совершенно конкретные требования, Украина их выполняет. Мне кажется, что, если бы не было этой идеи безвизового режима, очень многие структурные изменения здесь не произошли бы.

Должна быть прозрачность, конкурентность

​ Александр Савченко: Мы могли бы получать в пять раз больше денег. Мы не выбираем деньги, которые нам дает Мировой банк, потому что не можем делать эти реформы, не можем без коррупции. Там говорят – надо сделать прозрачный тендер. Мы выделяем деньги без тендера – они прекращают финансирование. И таких программ, где прекращено финансирование, очень много. А так Мировой банк – и модернизация школ, и модернизация канализации, везде есть программы. Должна быть прозрачность, конкурентность. У нас выборка – 15-20% этих средств, которые нам очень нужны. Если бы эта валюта пришла на наши рынки, было бы больше долларов, курс гривны сразу начал бы усиливаться. Почему плывет курс – мало долларов, в том числе из-за коррупции и бюрократии. Вот ее надо победить.

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Roads to freedom. Реформы - победа евробюрократов