But so far, issuances are lagging behind repayments

In June, banks significantly increased the volume of car loans issued, almost returning to last year's level. However, despite the growth in issuances, the total volume of car loan portfolios in June, on the contrary, accelerated the decline. According to bankers, this is a consequence of the end of loans issued by banks in the second half of 2013, and if not for the resumption of the state program of preferential car loans, the reduction in portfolios would have been much sharper.

According to Frank Research Group (FRG) as of July 1, the volume of car loans issued in June amounted to 30.65 billion rubles, an increase of 36.8% compared to May. As a result, it almost reached the level of June last year, when banks issued 34.2 billion rubles. car loans. In May and April of this year, data on issuances were comparable: 22.7 billion rubles. and 22.4 billion rubles. and were significantly lower than last year - 39.02 billion rubles. and 32.34 billion rubles. respectively.

According to market participants, the increase in the volume of car loans was primarily influenced by the launch of the state program of preferential car loans in April 2015. Within its framework, the state subsidizes banks with 2/3 of the Central Bank’s key rate (currently 11%). The maximum rate on preferential car loans is also limited from above - no more than 10 percentage points to the current key rate (currently no more than 21%). “In June, the program gained momentum and became widely known among the mass consumer,” says Ilsur Gibadullin, vice president of Credit Europe Bank. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, since the launch of the state program, 98.5 thousand cars have been sold on credit. According to Ivan Matveev, director of the retail sales department at Unicreditbank, car sales in 2015 fell by 40% on average compared to 2014. “In turn, the share of cars sold on credit (taking into account the state program) is about 40% of the total volume of cars sold,” he says. “Without government support, the volume of credit sales would be estimated at 10-15%.” According to the estimates of VTB 24 Senior Vice President Alexey Tokarev, the state subsidy program accounts for about 57% of the entire car lending market.

However, the growth in issuances, even taking into account the state program, could not stop the reduction in the total portfolio of car loans. Thus, according to FRG data as of July 1, since the beginning of the year it has decreased by 13.4%, to 808 billion rubles. At the same time, in April-June the gap from last year increased. So, if in March the loan portfolio decreased by 10.9% compared to March last year, then in April it was already by 13.4%, in May - by 14.4%, in June - by 15%. “On average, a car loan lasts about two to three years,” points out Dmitry Molkov, director of retail sales at Cetelem Bank. “If you look at the market figures, in 2012-2013 an average of 55-60 billion rubles were issued per month.” Now these loans are just ending. “On the bank’s balance sheet, car loans, as a rule, are reflected without interest and are repaid in annuity equal payments (first interest, and then principal), with a decrease in the remaining loan term, the volume of their “repayment” in the portfolio increases,” bankers point out.

Despite the June increase in issuances, bankers are in no hurry to talk about the restoration of the car loan market. “Banks are expanding the issuance of loans within the framework of the state program, but many players have now curtailed lending altogether, and the number of lending banks has decreased,” points out a top manager of a bank from the top 10. “It will be difficult to replace the lost volumes in such a situation.” In addition, “due to the reduction in the key rate, the volume of subsidies for banks is also decreasing, and therefore their interest in participating in the program,” believes Kommersant’s interlocutor.

Valeria Frantseva, Ksenia Dementieva, Yana Tsinoeva

Car loans accelerated in June