The head of Atomstroykompleks is preparing for a fall in the housing market

One of the largest developers in the Sverdlovsk region, Atomstroykompleks, intends to reduce plans for housing commissioning in 2016 by 40% and does not rule out staff reductions. As the company's general director Valery Ananyev explained, this is due to a drop in demand for new buildings. Other market participants intend to decide on plans based on the results of autumn demand. Experts believe that a decrease in the volume of housing commissioning could hit the city’s economy, and the lack of new projects on the market will limit supply in the next two years.

General Director of Atomstroykompleks Valery Ananyev feels the inevitability of a recession in the housing market
Photo: Vladislav Lonshakov, Kommersant

Yesterday at a press conference, the general director of the Atomstroykompleks company, Valery Ananyev, said that the company would reduce the volume of housing commissioned in 2016. “In 2015, we plan to introduce 250 thousand sq. m. meters of housing (previously the company planned to introduce 20% more than the level of 2014, when it delivered 260 thousand square meters. - Kommersant). Of these, in the first half of the year we commissioned 60 thousand square meters. meters. We understand how difficult the economic situation is. Demand in the first half of the year fell by about 40%, and it is not a fact that this is the limit. Therefore, in 2016 we intend to introduce only 150 thousand sq. m. meters of housing, and this figure is quite optimistic,” he noted, adding that other developers will most likely also adjust their plans downward. “It’s unlikely that anyone will plan large volumes—a recession is inevitable,” he says. Against this background, the developer believes, layoffs of industry workers are inevitable. “If a company reduces the volume of housing construction by 40%, it is unlikely that it will be possible to prevent a similar reduction in staff. But every organization wants to do this competently, so that when the market situation improves, they can bring back employees,” noted Mr. Ananyev. However, he does not expect a decrease in the cost per square meter, since “no one will sell below cost.” Now on average this figure in Yekaterinburg is 55 thousand rubles. per sq. meter.

Pred Group CEO Gennady Chernykh calls the 40% reduction in sales not critical for his company. “We are not debt-ridden, so I think we will survive this crisis easier. We may not start any new projects, but we will build those planned. Atomstroykompleks has a different scale of business and its own specifics. This is a large company that performs many types of work itself and employs a large staff,” he concluded. “Conclusions for next year can be drawn based on their autumn demand,” notes the manager of LSR. Real Estate - Ural" Vladimir Kritsky, adding that this year the company has optimized plans for housing commissioning by 30%, but there is no need to reduce staff. The market recovery, in his opinion, will depend on the situation on the secondary housing market and an increase in the volume of loans with state support. “Today, people find themselves hostage to a situation in which they cannot take out a mortgage with state support for a large apartment, since its volume in the regions is limited to 3 million rubles, and they cannot sell their existing housing on the secondary market due to the lack of affordable mortgages,” - he concluded.

According to the head of the analytical center of the Ural Chamber of Real Estate, Mikhail Khorkov, a possible reduction in housing commissioning could have a negative impact on the city’s economy. “Consumption of building materials will decrease, many companies will be forced to lay off staff, and this market has been one of the most dynamic in the last 10 years,” he says. Mr. Khorkov notes that a reduction in the volume of new projects will have a negative impact on the market in the medium term. According to him, in the third quarter of 2014, almost 500 thousand square meters of new projects were brought to the market. meters (a record figure for recent years), in the fourth - more than 330 thousand, in the first quarter of 2015 - about 230 thousand square meters. meters, and in the second there are about 100 thousand. “We will see the result of this trend in 2016-2017, when the supply in projects currently being implemented will decrease, and there will be insufficient new facilities. Based on current trends, this will not lead to a noticeable increase in prices (this will require an increase in demand or inflation), but will significantly limit the quality and territorial choice,” he says.

Tatyana Drogaeva, Alena Tronina

Valery Ananyev was upset