The non -compliance market

Why there are more vacancies in the labor market, and they are less applications for them

The indicators of general unemployment in Russia returned to the levels of spring spring. According to the latest data from the Rosstat, in June it amounted to 5.4% of the economically active population - exactly the same amount in March 2014. Then this was followed by a decline of up to 4.8% in August, which was replaced by a new growth of up to 5.9% in March of this year. After which the next decrease began, the lasting third month in a row. These estimates are very far from the processes that actually occur in the Russian labor market, experts note. All of it is in the “shadow” sector , official statistics in no way reflected.

The fixed level of unemployment in Russia continues to decline, despite the deepening of the decline in the economy , which, in theory, should, on the contrary, increase it sharply. On the one hand, a seasonal factor is triggered: in the summer, unemployment is always reduced due to seasonal jobs in such industries as agriculture or construction. On the other hand, an unfavorable demographic factor is more and more manifested-the decline in the birth rate in the 90s of the last century: less new workers are objectively appearing in the Russian economy . Finally, thirdly, at the next crisis in it, the local labor market reacts with its characteristic specifics ...

Elena Kiseleva , leading expert at the Institute of Complex Strategic Research, Moscow:

- Traditionally, in Russia in any crisis situations, the labor market reacts not to reduce the number of vacancies, but by a decrease in wages. That is, employers seek to pay less, and applicants, respectively, reduce their requirements. Probably now - just a similar situation. And, in addition, employers cannot find the employees they need and because of the seasonal decline in the market.

In industry, a quarter of employees is updated every year. Therefore, the growth of vacancies noted here does not yet say that revival has begun.

Nina Vishnevskaya , Deputy Director of the Center for Labor Studies of the Higher School of Economics, Moscow:

- a decrease in general unemployment, “cleansed” of seasonal fluctuations, does not occur. We can talk about reducing only the one that does not take them into account, this indicator is really reduced. And unemployment, taking into account the seasonality factor, on the contrary, even demonstrates an increase in growth this year. We are not talking about any new processes in the labor market. In all the factors that acted before, nothing new appeared. Therefore, there is no real decrease in unemployment, statistics reflect only an absolutely seasonal phenomenon in it.

Elena Kiseleva:

- In general, the situation in the Russian labor market is such that the general indicators of unemployment, especially recorded, generally slightly reflect what is happening in reality. That is, a decrease in unemployment does not at all indicate that the labor market has revived or the economy has begun to grow. The fact is that employment in it becomes an increasingly large extent informal.

That is, in general, a situation is formed when employers are looking for “high -quality” employees, who, in principle, are very few in the labor market.

Of the approximately 65 million people engaged in the economy, about a third are in no way connected by any contractual, legislatively established relations with their employer. These are self -employed, and repair brigades, and nurses, and tutors ... A spectrum of classes and professions whose representatives do not fall into any official grades are very wide. A person may not have an official workplace or executed labor relations, but he will not say that he is unemployed: he has a job that brings a certain income.

Another thing is that such activity does not affect the receipt of taxes in the treasury, which is paid either by the employer or the employee himself. This is the “shadow” sector in the labor market. Its growth, especially in the current, crisis conditions, leads to the fact that the official data on unemployment does not reflect the real picture in the labor market.

There is also “hidden” unemployment. Although its scale is already far from those that were celebrated in the 90s , they still remain significant ...

Elena Kiseleva:

- Hidden unemployment, despite the decrease, remains at a fairly high level. According to official estimates, this is about 300 thousand people, that is, it significantly adds to 4 million current unemployed. According to unofficial estimates, there may be much more, because all these manifestations of unemployment are quite rigidly restrained by administrative methods. In different ways, companies do not allow reducing an excess staff. Therefore, unfortunately, it does not bear any optimism.

Studies show that about 80% of all senior students already have work, and in their specialty.

Judging by the estimates of some Russian recruiting agencies, which, in particular, was cited by the Vedomosti newspaper, in June, for the first time from the beginning of this year, a small annual increase in the number of vacancies proposed in the Russian labor market was noted - in the previous five months it was only constantly declining to the corresponding last year's levels. But at the same time, the growth rate of the number of resumes represented by applicants, after peak in March, began to slow down, although they still noticeably exceed the levels of last year. How to explain this?

Nina Vishnevskaya:

- In my opinion, a small increase in the number of vacancies that is recorded by agencies speaks only of seasonal demand for labor, and not about changing any fundamental trends in the Russian labor market ...

Elena Kiseleva:

- Summer is the traditional period of the decline in the activity of job seekers. It is believed that it is better to postpone all this until the fall. The activity of employers in the summer is also reduced. Even posting vacancies, they are not ready to discuss specific conditions for hiring a person to work. In this situation, not just the quantitative ratio of vacancies, on the one hand, and the resume, on the other, matters. But also the correspondence of the requests of applicants to the requirements and working conditions that they are offered. All these industry or salary inconsistencies are most likely manifested in a situation where there are more vacancies in the market, and the resume - less.

There is no real decrease in unemployment, statistics reflect only an absolutely seasonal phenomenon in it.

In the next couple of months, graduates of 2015 will also appear in the Russian labor market - of various educational institutions. It can be generally about dozens and even hundreds of thousands of people. At the same time, the market itself is already in a depressed state ...

Nina Vishnevskaya:

- Of course, the graduates of this year are not in the best position in the labor market, but still their parish will not have such a negative impact on the general indicators of unemployment. For the simple reason that with the current education system, most senior students already have a job. And at the end of their studies, they do not immediately enter the labor market in search of work, but already have some kind of workplace. There were many studies on this subject, and they show that about 80% of all senior students already have work, and in their specialty. The fact that employers usually seek to get a new person already with experience are also pushing them to this. Another thing is that at the end of the educational institution these people can apply for something more significant, with a higher salary. And, of course, in the current conditions it will be more difficult for them to get such places. But in general, this factor will not have much influence on the main indicators of unemployment in the country.

The growth, especially in the current, crisis conditions, the "shadow" sector of the labor market and leads to the fact that the official data on unemployment does not reflect the real situation in any way.

Again, according to recruiting agencies, at the beginning of summer, the highest increase in vacancies proposed by the labor market was noted in industry, financial sector, service services or transport-that is, in industries where the seasonality factor of the number of workers is much smaller than, say, in construction ...

Elena Kiseleva:

- Employers at any time and in any situation, not even very favorable in economic terms, are looking for professionals - people with the necessary level of qualifications. And in Russian industry - a long -standing deficit of both specialists and qualified working personnel. And so far nothing radically changes from the point of view of training such personnel, or from the point of view of the prestige and attractiveness of working professions.

All these industry or salary inconsistencies are most likely manifested in a situation where there are more vacancies in the market, and the resume - less.

With finances - a similar situation. Yes, this is a very popular area, since the level of remuneration in the sector is much higher than the average in economics. But there are not enough professionals necessary for employers. And in the crisis, many companies, taking advantage of the weakness of competitors, try to simply bite off highly professional specialists, offering them a higher reward.

That is, in general, a situation is formed when employers are looking for “high -quality” employees, who, in principle, are very few in the labor market. And those who are, either already have a stable job with their payment, or are simply not ready to change anything. This is such an eternal competition of employers for personnel, for professionals ...

Nina Vishnevskaya:

- As for industry, the high demand for new personnel in conditions when production itself falls is explained by the fact that these sectors are very high turnover of labor. Of these, a lot of people are leaving. Therefore, employers will be forced to search for new workers who would replace those who have already left. Industry - in one of the first places in the Russian economy on labor circulation. Here, a quarter of workers are updated every year. Therefore, the noted demand does not mean at all that animation has begun in industry. Rather, it indicates that many people are dissatisfied with the working conditions in these sectors. They leave, and employers, respectively, are trying to find a replacement for them.