Not up to investment

It is believed that devaluation should lead to the development of export -oriented industry. After the fall in the national currency falls, the sale abroad of the same product brings more income, and the expenses of within the country remain at the same level or slightly higher. As a result, the development of industry leads to an increase in welfare and the effect of the fall in the currency rate is leveled.

When the ruble sharply fell into the turn of 2014 and 2015, many hoped that the Russian economy would have a similar effect. Relatively speaking, the wages of workers on oil tower did not rise, and each dollar that helps out for the sale of energy resources to Europe has become more expensive in Russia. Optimists did not even scare the fall of oil quotes (within the framework of decency, of course).

The Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, in a recent interview with Vedomosti, even reported not without pride that thanks to the fall of the ruble rate in Russia, for the first time overtook the American. Formally, this is quite possible, if everything is reduced to an arithmetic problem from the class 4 textbook, then the worker used to produce a bolt for 1 dollar, now for 0.5 - it means for the same money a person began to produce more goods, the performance of his labor increased.

If you follow this scheme, the fall of the ruble in July was supposed to additionally improve the state of the Russian industry. But, as it turns out, far from always the development of the economy is strictly on textbooks. Or it is worth considering more initial data.

The next fall in the ruble course actually detained industry in the recession. A survey of Rosstat, Writes Vedomosti, showed that inflationary expectations have increased in the country for the first time since the winter, although, of course, not as much as after the devaluation of 2014. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development no longer predicts deflation in August, it is good if it is possible to avoid price growth.

The problem of inflation growth is that it can not always be stopped by the decision of the Central Bank or Government. The Central Bank, although indirectly, can affect the amount of money in the economy, but citizens, enterprises and banks make them accumulate or spend it on their own. If they expect low inflation, then it is logical to save money, if the price is expected to be high, then it is reasonable to spend money quickly.

When everyone gets rid of money, the speed of their turnover increases sharply, which is almost equivalent to the Central Bank of the issue, which means that the cost of money is reduced - prices are rising, which is inflation. Thus, in the case of high inflation expectations, prices will grow without the actions of the Central Bank.

Inflation, again in theory, can stimulate enterprises to engage in investments - after all, otherwise the money will depreciate, and if new equipment is purchased, they will definitely not disappear. But here everything is not so simple.

In fact, investments, as experience shows, stimulates low inflation, 1-3%, it was this indicator for a long time that was designated as a goal in many developed countries. But in Russia, the economy fell into a kind of investment trap. The classic definition of this problem is the lack of investors reaction to a change in loan rates. If the loan is getting cheaper, and investments are not growing, then it is not profitable to invest in the economy for some other reason.

Valery Mironov, Deputy Director of the Center for Development of the Economics of Economics, calculated that in January-May 2015 the actual rate of the industry loan increased in comparison with the same period last year by 1.3 times to 15.5%, and the profitability of industry as a whole-1.5 times to 14.6%. That is, on average, it is not profitable to take loans in industry, they simply will not pay off. But over a year from two to five, the number of industries has grown, where profitability is above the loan rate - which, however, was not an occasion to begin with investment boom in them.

Russian entrepreneurs may have several reasons for reduced investment activity.

Firstly, an unstable ruble exchange rate. On the one hand, he saves a business from external shocks, such as a drop in oil prices. On the other hand, Mironov notes, he himself becomes a shock: entrepreneurs are ready for both a strong and a weak rate, but not for unpredictable.

Secondly, according to the surveys of industrialists conducted by Rosstat, the balance of estimates of the economic situation decreased from scratch in January to minus 7% in June, the assessment remained the same following the results of the July survey; The balance sheets of demand fell from 4% in January to minus 4% in July, release from 8% to zero. The total entrepreneurial confidence index is unchanged: minus 7%. In other words, the business feels ambulance and is afraid to invest in production.

Thirdly, parliamentary and presidential elections are approaching. Even if you do not pay attention to political risks, election campaigns, as a rule, exclude the possibility of reform, often vital.

As a result, it turns out that, despite the fall in the ruble, stimulating the import substitution of sanctions and state infusion, the Russian industry is in no hurry to grow or at least invest in the development of production. This is also reflected in the forecasts of economic growth: no one is waiting for the collapse, but growth is unlikely to exceed 1% per year in the medium term. And this means that no increase in Russian labor productivity in dollars will help - it makes little sense if it does not lead to an increase in the economy and well -being of citizens.