The abyss

Do you think they are not scared? You are very mistaken! Imagine: you were on the edge of the abyss and see an avalanche approaching you from the mountains. It is precisely this feeling that many inhabitants of the Kremlin, parliament, ministries are experiencing today ... It is impossible to stop the avalanche, but you also understand the abyss - you understand ... An avalanche is the falling sanctions of the West, which no one will cancel, the abyss is the approaching collapse of the Russian economy, which will follow new sanctions and the embargo. Yes, they have money, and large, but where to run if, after a change in the authorities of the Kremlin, they still find it in any civilized country? On the Seychelles? But what to do there?! Moar is even worse than Napoleon’s exile to the island of St. Helena. Therefore, they will cling to power until the last minute, shoot back to the "last cartridge", grab the straw, like a drowning one. They have something to lose.

Today, Western sanctions are not sanctions. This is just a warning. The ammonia, which was brought to the nose of the "Kremlin", did not work - they completely laid their noses. In the United States, votes are already heard about the need to introduce an embargo for the purchase of oil in Russia and its disconnection from the SWIFT banking system. A decrease in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel will undermine the Russian economy, but not as much as the complete embargo for buying oil. This is more than half of the country's budget! If you add to this SWIFT and paralyzed bank payments, then you do not have to be a psychic to anticipate: the Russian economy will collapse. Special education is not required to understand the elementary truth: without currency and without a balanced banking system, the state apparatus cannot function. That is, he will be able to work, but the results of this work will go into a whistle.

Russia will not survive in isolation, it is systematically tied to world markets, it will not be possible to convert its raw materials economy into natural economy in ten or in a hundred years

What will follow? I will disappoint the hawks - no, no third world. Someone would very much like to "truncate weapons", but nothing. The bluff of the military superiority of the Russian army over NATO will leave for internal use. The Kremlin did not consider, do not consider and will never consider the option of solving any controversial issue with the West from a position of power. Nuclear blackmail on the camera - yes, but this is for the faint of heart, zombies and schizophrenics. Already today, Russia is warmer by NATO countries in terms of all indicators almost three times. To start competing with the countries of the West (USA, Canada, EU) in terms of weapons, when their total GDP is more than 50% of the world, while Russia has only 2%, only not quite healthy people can. The arms race forced the Soviet Union, although it depended much less to the West than the current Russia.

What should the Kremlin do? Try to maintain the status quuo as long as possible, which entirely depends on relations with Ukraine. In this regard, only one can expect - the continuation of the war in the east of a neighboring country. This is Putin's plan. Ukraine will have to spend all the forces and means on this war. To stop this war is not in the ingredes of Moscow, otherwise the whole world will immediately recall the announced Crimea. If the Kremlin gives the Crimea to Ukraine (imagine the impossible), then the vertical of the Putin government will form as a house of a house, because the "patriots of Russia" will instantly arise the question: "Putin is a traitor?!" This is even worse than complete isolation or external intervention. This means that the Kremlin will continue to spread rot Donbass until in the United States in early 2017, the new president most likely a representative of the republican party will not begin to fulfill its duties. The probability of introducing new, murderous sanctions against Russia will grow.

We know where the current leaders of Russia studied, but we do not know who taught them so talented to destroy their state. The fact that neither Napoleon, nor Wilhelm, nor Hitler could do, Putin does. Russia will not survive in isolation, it is systematically tied to world markets, it will not be possible to convert its raw materials economy in natural economy in ten or a hundred years. We will all witness how this colossus on clay legs begins to crack and crumble.

German Obukhov - coordinator of the International Coalition "Stop Fascism in Russia"