Coercion to Minsk. What does a new aggravation in the Donbass mean

In eastern Ukraine, a new military aggravation. The OSCE fixes a ceasefire on both sides. Part of the allotted artillery and RSO caliber more than 100 mm is returned to fire positions, local combat clashes occur daily along the entire line of contact. Against the backdrop of a dead end in negotiations on the political aspects of Minsk-2 and a breakdown of a ready-made agreement on the allocation of weapons of a caliber of less than 100 mm, this gives an occasion to talk about the threat of a full-scale war in the Donbass. The German Foreign Minister calls the situation “explosive”, and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calls on Kiev “not to tempt fate” . France, Germany and Ukraine have already appointed negotiations in Berlin on Monday about this.

From the diplomatic triumph, Minsk-2 turns at best into the international legal cover of Russia's retreat from Donbass

Moscow is already aware that Minsk-2 does not allow, as it was conceived, to realize strategic goals against Ukraine by negotiation. From the diplomatic triumph, he turns at best into the international legal cover of the retreat of Russia from Donbass with the subsequent lifting of the most painful sanctions of the West. It is not possible to achieve the main goal - to impose a confederate device with Ukraine with recognition of the special status of the DLR under unspoken Russian control and thereby ensure a powerful lever of influence on Kyiv’s policy.

It was assumed that Kyiv would strive to restore the sovereignty of Ukraine over the Donbass as quickly as possible, and the West would put pressure on Kyiv, fearing new military operations. Then the “Special Status of Donbass” will be quickly agreed and enshrined in the new Constitution, and this will allow Moscow to leave Donbass and from the sanctions, at the same time announcing the victory. The victory would be the turning of Ukraine into an amorphous confederation of the Bosnian type with the institutional Russian veto on its geopolitical orientation.

The consequences of the shelling of Mariupol on August 17

Reuters / Alexander Ermochenko

But this calculation did not work. Kyiv did not return the Donbass on the terms of Minsk-2 and refused to coordinate with the leaders of the DPR and the LPR and the parameters of the “special status”, and the “modality of the local elections”, and changes to the Constitution of Ukraine. More precisely, the Ukrainian authorities applied their interpretation of Minsk-2, according to which all “political aspects”, including special status and local elections, are realized after restoring Kyiv control over the border. This is the essence of the laws of Ukraine adopted from February to July on the special status of individual regions of Donbass, on local elections and a package of changes in the decentralization of power in the Constitution. At the same time, Kyiv introduced the economic and transport blockade of the DLNR, also due to the implementation of the socio-economic aspects of Minsk-2 by the return of control over the border. Without admitting this officially, Ukraine no longer strives to integrate the territories destroyed by the war on the conditions imposed on it in Minsk, and prefers to simply wait for the moment when Moscow, under pressure from circumstances, decides to leave Donbass, the benefit of Western sanctions are strictly tied to the transfer of Kiev control over the border until the end of 2015.

The hopes for the pressure of the West on Kyiv on the implementation of Minsk-2 were not justified.

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