Over the past week, the ruble has fallen by 7% in dollars / M. Stulov / Vedomosti

Chief economist of BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov believes that the realistic range of oil prices is wide – from $30 to $70 per barrel and, therefore, the dollar by the end of the year may cost either 50 rubles or 100 rubles. But BCS has not changed its average annual forecast yet – it is $58.2 per barrel of Brent and 57.3 rubles per dollar.

On Friday, the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow's settlements rose by 1.16 rubles compared to Thursday and reached 69.12 rubles, the euro exchange rate rose by 2.26 rubles and reached 78.65 rubles. This is the historical maximum of the dollar's value at the close of trading; the euro reached its maximum value since December 16, 2014.

The ruble has been falling for nine weeks in a row, and last week it lost almost 7% – the only time it was worse was in November, when the Central Bank let the ruble float freely, Bloomberg writes. The MICEX index lost 2.9% over the week, and the RTS – 8.7%.

The Capital Dispute

In mid-August, Bloomberg reported that the Central Bank of Russia's management has different positions on the issue of introducing restrictions on capital flows. According to the agency, the new curator of monetary policy, Dmitry Tulin, calls the complete rejection of restrictions, which have been in effect since 2006, a mistake, while the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Ksenia Yudaeva, reported (as reported by Interfax) that the regulator has repeatedly spoken out against this idea as unproductive.

The main reason for the collapse is the fall in oil prices, believes Sergey Romanchuk from Metallinvestbank. Brent crude oil has been falling in price for eight weeks in a row, which has not happened in the last 30 years; on Friday it fell below $46 per barrel. The market anxiety was supported by the unsettled situation in Ukraine and disagreements within the Central Bank leadership about the possibility of introducing restrictions on capital movement, believes Romanchuk (see inset). But there is no panic on the market, he is sure: the ruble exchange rate is calmly declining, there is no shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, as, incidentally, there is no significant play for the ruble to grow.

"The worsening situation in Ukraine, more than $50 billion due by the end of the year that need to be converted, about the same amount of currency borrowed from the Central Bank through repo transactions - all this does not add confidence to the national currency," comments Deputy Chairman of the Board of IT Invest Mikhail Khanov. According to the Central Bank, total payments by banks and companies (debt and interest) for September - December will amount to about $61 billion, but a significant part is intra-group loans (indicated as external in transaction passports, but have a high chance of prolongation). Without them, payments are $35 billion.

"But the main reason is the rapid fall in oil prices. If you watch the charts of the ruble exchange rate and oil prices in real trading mode, you can see that the dependence is direct," Khanov states.

Exporters' activity in selling foreign currency earnings remains low and only slightly compensates for the negative effect of falling oil prices, analysts at Sberbank CIB write: sales of foreign currency earnings will increase next week, and companies will have to pay 717 billion rubles ($10.5 billion) in taxes. But the negative trend for the ruble is unlikely to change: if oil prices continue to decline, the dollar will inevitably rise to 70.0 rubles.

A significant prerequisite for the correction of the ruble exchange rate would be an increase in the price of oil, Romanchuk is sure, but he did not predict when exactly this would happen.

By September, the devaluation of the yuan (last week it fell 2.9% against the dollar) will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, Tikhomirov believes: the Chinese economy is not in the best shape, which negatively affects the raw materials markets, including Russia, but in the long term, the growth of the Chinese money supply will also raise the prices of raw materials.

No significant recovery in oil prices is expected, and the possible increase in rates by the US Federal Reserve System in September will only increase pressure on the ruble, analysts at Uralsib Capital are pessimistic: the ruble has already lost 15% against the dollar since the beginning of August, and the Central Bank is not taking any measures to support the national currency. If the Central Bank does not begin active actions, there is practically no hope for a significant strengthening of the ruble in the next few months."

The worst week for the ruble