Translated material
70 rubles per dollar. What next?
Oil is getting cheaper, Peskov’s watches are getting more expensive, bloggers joke, experts urge to "get rid of fears and hopes"
The morning began on the collective farm. 71 ruble per dollar. pic.twitter.com/t3mpsg1zn0
- Timur Khorev (@timurkhorev) August 24, 2015Morning on the Collective farm, in fact, did not start today (both oil and the ruble are steadily falling out of place for a week), but on Monday the effect of a sharp drop in the world exchanges has also been overlaid on these negative trends. As a result, the ruble exchange rate overcame the marks of 70 per dollar and 80 for the euro and confidently rushed further down.
Black Monday, with a return to Russia! How symbolic that on the day of Independence of Ukraine
- RB of the brain (@belamova) August 24, 2015You can, of course, say that the matter is familiar -
Kommersant newspaper, end of December 1990 pic.twitter.com/eeqxibjmua
- suffering SV (@souffrantmitte1) August 24, 2015And in December last year they worried about the same thing. However, many write that the current fall is not a disposable excess, but an indicator of systemic problems.
Twitter is full of funny (and not very) jokes:
A convincing request for the collective Navalny: do not torment the people with old stupid jokes about the dollar, but come up with new ones.
- Ramzan Kadyrov. (@Kadirovrussia) August 24, 2015Here it seems to be new:
And the pictures, some of which, as usual, are not so much funny as they are sad:
At the auction on Monday August 24, the price of an American reference WTI variety broke out $ 40 for a barrel and collapsed. pic.twitter.com/bhsywn0gqm
- Tatyana Dorutina (@TASEDora) August 24, 2015 The ruble in a free fall is a multi -way on all screens of the country: pic.twitter.com/bkosisnyu4
- MUD ROSISI (@fake_midrf) August 24, 2015Navalny maintains a direct report on the cost of Peskov's hours:
43,400,000 forty-three million four hundred thousand Russian rubles are the hours of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation today. pic.twitter.com/zf8kuvbnrv
- Alexey Navalny (@navalny) August 24, 2015 Amendment: While I wrote a tweet, Peskov’s watch rose up to 44 million twenty thousand rubles. The successful man this sand.
- Alexey Navalny (@navalny) August 24, 2015Indeed, there would be no rejoice -
Dollar 70 rubles. Revenues to the budget have increased! Dumb pindos ahahaha pic.twitter.com/lzd9olxfdk
- Kiselev: Keep the days (@dailykiselev) August 24, 2015 If the enemy American market has collapsed, so we had to go in growth! What do we see? What is it going on, brothers, huh?
- Vladislav Naganov (@naganoff_ru) August 24, 2015However, even "guardians" are far from glee.
Andrei Desnitsky
Friends, but all these "do not laugh my Iskander" - they only disappeared from my field of view? A year ago, everything was in them.
Quietly, in a whisper, I’ll ask, 100,500 times. Did you wake up in the government or is everyone waiting for the return of high oil prices? Understanding what to do?
- Vladimir soloviev (@vrsoloviev) August 22, 2015 Oil continues to fall, so it is better for Ulyukaev simply not to go to work. With the wording "due to the fact that I can’t believe it"
- vladimir soloviev (@vrsoloviev) August 24, 2015Ulyukaev, however, went to work and even made a comment, the essence of which is this:
Oil prices fell to a minimum, but soon http://t.co/vpwzw8u2tv will increase again
- Politrussia (@politrussiaru) August 24, 2015Anton Krasovsky
If the book lover Ulyukaev considers the possibility of falling unlikely and short -term, we will have very hard>
Dmitry Gudkov
And so as not to get up twice. Iran claims that, despite the drop in oil prices, it will increase its production: in order not to lose the market share.
Minister Ulyukaev states that oil, if it falls below $ 40, is “for a short time”.
Iran - I believe, the minister - no.
The fact that oil from the blessing for the Russian economy has turned into its curse is written today by many:
Today, all news agencies write "The price of oil fell to" Nobody writes the figure, so as not to rewrite. For the fall does not stop
- Revolutionary thoughts (@vvp2_0) August 24, 2015The sad prognosis of Vadim Zhaduna:
Oil prices will be stably low (in the region of $ 40 per barrel and below) for about 15 years, and the volume of its consumption will soon begin to fall.
This fall is caused by the completion of the oil cycle, as an energy carrier, the pressure of a rapidly growing alternative energy, energy conservation, a slowdown in population growth, growing the popularity of electric vehicles and entering the next long -term price reduction cycle.
The largest oil exporters are ready for this and are trying to squeeze the maximum from the market, while it is still possible. The low cost will allow them to earn on oil even in the conditions of falling quotes up to $ 30 per barrel.
For us, due to a higher cost, the oil market is almost completely closed. This means a death sentence for the economy, which is almost completely focused on energy export.
There are other alarming points:
Sputnik & Pogrom
The Chinese stock market lost 8.5% per day (this is the largest day fall since February 2007), throughout Asia, panic, in total, investors lost over $ 5 trillion, and this has not yet begun trading in America (also ending on Friday with a dramatic fall).
We convey hello to all lovers of Eurasian integration, indestructible Russian-Chinese friendship of peoples, etc. But there is good news: Iran decided to increase oil production at all costs, which in the future will drop prices by at least $ 10 per barrel.
Complete, as they say among embroiderers, reins.
The devaluation of the ruble begins to have unexpected side effects. Recently it turned out that the weakening ruble is already attracting little by Russian farmers. The purchases of grain planned for August 20 at the State Intervention Fund were not held, and not a single ton of grain was received in the state reserve. This happened for the first time in the practice of commodity interventions, and in all grain positions.
The reason is extremely simple. After the serious devaluation of the ruble, the efficiency of grain exports increased sharply, and the purchase prices offered by the state have ceased to be attractive to grain manufacturers.
Something in part that similar happened at the sunset of the USSR, when the collective farmers then flatly refused to take grain to centralized funds.
Analysis of the situation in Vedomosti :
The economy as a whole suffers, since it has no other growth factors except oil price. The hope that devaluation will give an impetus to the growth of industry is not relevant. Unlike 1998, Russia now does not have a large number of free capacities and cheap labor resources (although after some time they may appear), in addition, growth after 1999, and recovery after 2009 took place mainly due to the growth in oil prices. The rebound after 2009 was fast to the record levels, but this did not allow the economy to grow even at the average INTERNITY level - its structure changed for the worse.
It would be possible to extract from the weakening of the ruble the “non -resource” benefit if Russia was more actively embedded in international trade, playing on increasing the competitiveness of its goods. But Russia, on the contrary, enhances self -isolation. You do not have to hope for a technological jerk impossible without indigenous economic and political reforms.
The thoughts of Alexei Roshchin about the current moment:
In general, reasoning extremely cynical - any weakening of the national currency is beneficial for the economy - how any massive robbery is favorable. After all, what is, in fact, devaluation? It’s just a “invisible hand” (not a market) climbs into a pocket to all the inhabitants of this country - and it takes out extra money -digits from there. People, thus, are sharply impoverished and suddenly discover that they can no longer make planned purchases. Someone is in a flight with a new car, and someone with a chicken to dinner.
Mass impoverishment, in theory, should contribute to the greater energetic of the masses and even the awakening of the entrepreneurial mark in it. People will be more willing to agree to any work, to process it without a murmur, to reduce vacations and lunch breaks themselves, and after a hard working day, also look for a part -time job. The wheels of the economy in the country with the impoverished population certainly should begin to spin faster.
Only ... one but. As a promotiologist, I can say that just the "masses", in fact, did not begin to live particularly richly. On the contrary, all that I wrote above - processing, part -time jobs, insignificant lunch breaks, etc. - Already and so there was a place to be throughout the country. Plus - universal darerings.
There is an opinion that everything is not so scary:
Petr Favorov
To be honest, I do not really understand the meaning of the philistine panic when the ruble falls in unison with oil. Well, this is how our economy is arranged, this is how the budget comes down, so in the end there are incentives for a decrease in dependence on energy exports. What to panic? Well, yes, this is unpleasant, but the immediate threat of the stability of the economic system, as it was in December, is now not like.
But this is really how to look:
Well, yes, this is how the economy is arranged. Well, yes, this is how a country is arranged, which cannot offer anything but oil. Well, yes, the human body is so arranged that he needs food, but it has become worse and more expensive. Well, yes, the brain is so arranged that he wants to get new and beautiful travel pictures, which are now almost not possible. Well, yes, well, yes, yes, yes, everything is stable, there are no threats, we live.
What to do? Glory Rabinovich seems to have a plan:
SLAVA Rabinovich
I want to congratulate Vladimir Vladimirovich, the coronete of economic sciences: at the current rate of the dollar at 71.60 for one barrel of oil, they give even more rubles, and at the current rate of the euro at 81.90 for your Mercedes-Pulmann, you can generally tear off the ruble jackpot, which does not fit into a large bag! <...>
The ruble has become even stronger, we began to eat even better, dress, and in general, we began to live better!
Your remarkable forecasts for inflation in 2015 will certainly come true in 5.5%: it is necessary to start holding all prices at all points of sale absolutely everything, starting with gas stations and grocery stores. <...>
I developed a number of complex measures for an early increase in the ruble to 120 in order to replenish the budget more quickly, more rather fulfill the presidential May decrees and show the best to the West. I ask you to appoint me your economic adviser in return for academician Glazyev, who proved his complete failure in the vector and the speed of conducting the necessary financial and economic transformations both in the Crimea and in other constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The main theses of my plan are listed above. I am waiting for an answer as a nightingale of summer.
This is, of course, a joke. But on the "free press" about the calling of Glazyev instead of the "system liberals" they write quite seriously:
What are the scenarios of the future of Russia, taking into account the destructive macroeconomic policy of the country's monetary authorities working on the erosion of the system from the inside? Is this not the technology of bringing the country to a social explosion, followed by a proper -propelled policy of protest and controlled dismantling of the regime? Why are the overgrown personnel decisions in the financial and economic bloc of the Russian government not made? Why is there such a great influence of economic destructors on the opinion of the head of state, and the creative anti -crisis software proposals of such economists and government officials as glazes are sequentially ignored using sophisticated tools and methods of hardware pressure in the highest echelons of power by the liberal cohort? <...> We will only help the change of all macroeconomic policy and the cleaning of personnel that strike the president (and not always by stealth).
About the dilemma facing Putin, writes Sergey Parshakov:
Option of stabilization RUR.
Capital movement restriction (CSC).
What are the discussions about now and are going on. So that the spirit of disputes breaks out. But the fact is that "restrictions on the recreation center" is a geopolitical choice. With the world we are or by ourselves. <...>
If GDP decides to reign to stay (puts his stomach for his homeland) - he is one OGA out - and that's all - we are waiting for a new "oprichnina".)))
Funny !!! )))
So far, however, the resignation of the liberals from the Central Bank, but the “patriot” of Vladimir Yakunin waited. Moreover, as follows from the information of an unnamed interlocutor of Vedomosti , the final decision on it was made by Putin himself:
Everything was resolved when the next budget process began and Yakunin once again came to ask for subsidies, the official continues. “In the current difficult condition with income, everyone realized that Russian Railways is already a systemic problem of the budget: Russian Railways is the only state -owned company that so tightly hooked on state considy,” he notes. <...> “Yakunin at that meeting was asked to reduce costs, he began to be indignant in response, said that he could not reduce and leave in this case. The president himself was already tired of this and said: “Well, go away,” recalls the interlocutor of Vedomosti.
Oleg Kashin on the "elephant", however, writes that not everything is so simple, and Yakunina can wait for a political career. Former employee of Yakuninsky, Think-Tank, Eduard Bir is not discouraged:
Fatty consumerism of the townspeople and the car-trigger-idol-long-legged in Turkey-universal in Auchan really ended, and while the country will get rid of the economic dependence of the West (including the commodity-it will be a little tolerate import substitution and change of suppliers from abroad). For what? The question is obvious to every conscious citizen - in order to once again not give the homeland to be torn to pieces by the West and its corporations. <...> dollar at 100, oil for 10? Well, let. Only we will not hand over our homeland.
Besides
Lavrov: We are observing the end of a very long era of the Western dominance: economic, financial, political. pic.twitter.com/dlsuztvriv
- Dmitry Smirnov (@Dimsmirnov175) August 24, 2015 Konstantin von EgGert
Remember everyone! And then immediately run in exchanger!
Against the background of the unfolding hysteria, the forecast of Yakov Mirkin sounds even optimistic:
How to relate to this?
Stoically. <...> I will simply call for what is happening in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, or even in Ukraine, as the everyday life of ordinary developing economies.
There are more than enough similar examples in Latin America or Asia. And nothing, the pipes are smoking, the steamboats are coming, the police are honored, the professor is taught, and if in Venezuela the queue for toilet paper, as travelers write, it means that it is still.
If this very important paper did not exist in Karakas, then there would be no lines behind it in nature.
Logical.
Since the dollar is growing, it means that someone buys it by rubles, it means that someone else has rubles for which you can buy a few dollars. Yes?
- Victor Korb (@victor_korb) August 24, 2015However, there is one nuance. The reasons for the current Russian crisis are not only economic, but also political. And if the economic apocalypse, in spite of everything, is still unlikely, sharp changes are not excluded in politics, which Valery Nightingale writes about:
It does not seem that nothing tragic happens and is unlikely to happen. Both the dollar and oil are stabilized. Even at an uncomfortable level. Although the worst is still ahead, this worst will not entail an economic disaster, universal disasters and the collapse of the country. Times were worse and worse. And in our century.
What seems to me undoubted and even inevitable is the departure of the current political regime. Moreover, in the future, not so distant. Because the political department in Russia turned out to be ineffective and absolutely failure. And gradually it becomes obvious to everyone. Even propaganda does not save.
Moreover, the fall of the regime will most likely be bloodless and banal. Why - I will tell the next time.
And now we must get rid of fears and hopes. Remember, "do not believe, do not be afraid, do not ask?" And just to understand that after the fall of the regime we will find hard and ungrateful work, and by no means only in economics and politics. First of all, it will be necessary to get out from under the rubble of lies, absurdity, cowardice and malice. Return to the moral and mental norm.
In the meantime, it remains to participate in the predictions.
Last year, my forecast for the ruble rate to NG came true. Vangha now that the ruble will cost NG in the region of 500 r per dollar
- Oleg Kozyrev (@oleg_kozyrev) August 24, 2015 The absolute minimum of the ruble was in 1923: 2,352,941 rubles per dollar. And you are talking about some bottom ...
- Ilya Varlamov (@varlamov) August 24, 2015