Ministry of Energy: In the next 20 years, you should not wait for the growth of oil revenues

The increase in hydrocarbons will slow down, currency revenues from energy exports will not grow, the Ministry of Energy, the author of the new energy strategy of Russia until 2035, believes. The document was planned to be accepted back in 2014, but due to sanctions and falling oil prices, its consideration was postponed, it can be accepted in the fall.

The strategy is based on two scenarios - conservative (basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development) and target. The agency believes that by 2035, most countries will develop alternative non -aggravated energy sources, which will narrow the market niches for Russia.

In this case, income from hydrocarbons exports in the European direction will not grow due to limited demand, and in Asian-due to infrastructure insufficiency, they quote the Vedomosti document.

Russia's devaluation will not help Russia - the emerging competitive advantages will disappear in several years due to the high cost of capital and limited access to external investments and technologies.

Among the threats, energy strategy calls the shale revolution in the United States and the renewable energy, the rate on which is being made in Europe. Gas hydrates are also mentioned, which can lead to the redistribution of world flows of raw materials.

The strategy calls for state support for independent small and medium oil companies. Their role will grow after 2020: the structure of hydrocarbons will deteriorate, so that a greater innovative activity, the effectiveness of capital costs, and flexibility to changes in the conjuncture will be needed.

Recall that over the past year, oil prices have fallen more than doubled: from $ 100 per barrel of Brent varieties in late August 2014 to $ 44 a year later. But unlike 2008-2009, when the global financial and economic crisis led to the fall of world oil consumption, in the second half of 2014, when the rapid drop in oil prices began, nothing special on the side of demand was observed , Vladimir Drebentsov, the chief economist of the BP of Russia and the CIS.

The lower the prices fall, he believes, the faster the market is balanced. Until this happens, the volatility of prices will remain at a high level.

Recall that the EU Energy Strategia recently adopted by the European Commission aims to reduce dependence on Russian gas, primarily the Baltic countries. The EU would also like Gazprom not to be among the owners of the gas transportation systems of these countries. The Gazprom Germani report recalls that at the end of 2014 a deal between Gazprom and Wintershall on the exchange of assets also broke off , as a result of which Gazprom was supposed to receive complete control over large gas sales companies in Germany.