Can Putin fight in Syria

Every lover of military history knows: the war on two fronts does not end with anything good for the one who leads it. It is possible that soon the war in Syria can also be added to the “secret” war of Russia in the southeast of Ukraine. For a week now, in the foreign press, one after another, leaks that are clearly coming from intelligence on the transfer of Russian troops into the country covered by the Civil War follow. “The US intelligence received certificates of a significant increase in the involvement of the Russian army in the Syrian Civil War, including satellite photographs of the construction of the facility - presumably the Russian base for the concentration of troops and heavy equipment - at the port city, which is the strong point of the Syrian President Bashar al -Assad,” the American The Los Angeles Times wrote the other day. Earlier, the Turkish and Israeli media reported that Russian planes supposedly arrived at the base near Damascus, which should join the Air Forces of the Islamic State terrorist group. Also, observers allegedly noticed the “strange cargo” under tarpaulin on board the Russian large landing ship “Nikolai Filchenkov” after he passed the Zone of the Black Sea Sters in the direction of the Mediterranean Sea. A considerable number of photographs of Russian marines are walking on social networks under posters with portraits of Putin and Assad. From these messages it was possible to dismiss. Moreover, Moscow decisively refutes the presence of its military.

However, the fact is that the United States perceive the threat of Russian military intervention in Syria quite seriously. Washington has just sent an official request to Athens with a request to close the Greek airspace for Russian aircraft with humanitarian aid for Syria. Earlier, US Secretary of State John Kerry called his Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov to express concern about incoming information about the strengthening of the Russian military presence in Syria. Kerry said that, “if such messages are accurate, then such actions can lead to a further escalation of the conflict” in Syria, “the deaths of a larger number of civilians, an increase in the flow of refugees and the risk of confrontation with the coalition acting against the IG”. And the White House spokesman Josh Ernest emphasized: “Any military support for Assad regime for any purpose-in the form of sending military personnel, supplying aircraft, weapons or financing-is destabilizing and counterproductive.”

If American concern has a valid reason and Moscow is preparing a military operation in Syria, then it looks like a natural continuation of Russian politics. For several weeks now, the Kremlin has been worn with the idea of ​​creating a certain as much as a wide international coalition to combat terrorism and IS. Putin has already stated that he was discussing this topic with a number of world leaders, including the presidents of the United States, Turkey and Egypt, the leadership of Saudi Arabia, as well as the king of Jordan. Analysts close to the Kremlin believe that it is this initiative to become the main thing in Putin's upcoming performance at the UN General Assembly. The goal of the Russian activity is quite obvious: in the process of forming the coalition, to get out of the international isolation caused by the annexation of Crimea and the war in the southeast of Ukraine, to again turn into a respected member of the world community.

But this wonderful diplomatic maneuver has a weak side. Possible participants in the future coalition are completely different about the Assad regime. The United States and its allies consider this regime the root cause of the Civil War and the culprit of Chaos, who covered the country. Moscow and Tehran, on the contrary, are believed by Assad as a legal ruler and future participant in the coalition. It is unlikely that Putin’s initiatives will most likely remain an empty propaganda exhaust.

But the attempt to reinforce them, supporting the Syrian government forces on the battlefield, can lead to bad consequences. What, as far as you can understand, are warned by the Americans. Kerry told Lavrov that such support “could even lead to a clash with the coalition led by America,” wrote The New York Times. American diplomats directly emphasize: Russian airstrikes can interfere with air-air operations that the United States and their partners conduct in Syria. Russian aircraft or Syrian government forces supported by Russia can attack the opposition groups that Washington supports. Only a direct military clash of the United States and Russia in Syrian territory was not enough.

But even if such contradictions did not exist, Russian military participation in Syria still looks like an adventure. The whole experience of the last decades shows: it is impossible to win in such a war. And here it is not necessary to reassure yourself with the reasoning that Russia's participation will be symbolic. I will send, they say, several planes and that's it. Indeed, even in this case, radio engineering services will be required to ensure their actions. Maids will be required to protect the databases. And in the case of an exacerbation of the situation, military units to defend the airfield ... So, the Kremlin risks involving the country in another exhausting conflict. An attempt deftly, having retained a face, get out of the war in Ukraine, will turn into a new war.

Photo: Pan Chaoyue / Zumapress.com / TASS