This winter, Russians will vacation in Serbia and Egypt

The strongest drop in outbound tourist flows in the last 20 years is forcing tour operators to formulate programs for the upcoming winter season, taking into account new realities. Most likely, only sales of tours to Egypt will remain unchanged, and for ski resorts that have rapidly risen in price due to the devaluation of the ruble, tour operators intend to offer Russians the most budget-friendly options or alternative destinations, such as Serbia.

Photo: Dmitry Kostyukov, Kommersant / buy photo

After an unprecedented drop in outbound tourist flow, tour operators began to revise their programs for the winter season. As TUI Russia told Kommersant, the winter program was optimized taking into account the decline in tourist flow. “We have added more economical accommodation options at European ski resorts, and in a number of areas we have focused only on the high New Year period,” the company clarified. Pegas Touristik, according to its general director Anna Podgornaya, has almost completely preserved its flight geography. “We are only talking about optimizing the number of flights. Previously, each tour operator tried to put its own plane on the route, but now many are cooperating,” she says. According to Ms. Podgornaya’s forecasts, the flow will decrease in any case.

The next wave of falling demand for package tours is unlikely to come as a big surprise to the market. Tour operators have been noticing a drop in sales since the second half of 2014, when bankruptcies of large companies and the devaluation of the ruble reduced demand by 40%. The decline continued this year following the rise in the value of the currency: in the summer, sales decreased by 20-30% (see Kommersant on August 5). According to Rostourism, the number of Russian tourists traveling abroad in January-June 2015 decreased by 33.8% compared to the first half of 2014. This is the largest drop in the last 20 years, the press secretary of the Russian Union of Tourism Industry, Irina Tyurina, reported recently (quote from Interfax). According to forecasts by the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), if the current economic situation continues, the drop in outbound tourist flow in the winter season could be 25-30%.

The main factors of the predicted decline are not only the reduction in the purchasing power of Russians, but also the introduction of a mandatory fingerprinting procedure for obtaining a visa to the Schengen countries from September 14 this year, according to ATOR. A representative of VFS Global (which manages visa centers) in Russia previously indicated in an interview with the Ratanews.ru portal that 95% of visa applications come from cities where processing points already exist.

“Residents of small towns have still submitted their applications through travel agencies,” ATOR executive director Maya Lomidze disagrees. In her opinion, it is too early to talk about general trends for the next winter season: against the backdrop of currency fluctuations, many tourists have abandoned early bookings and tour operators will only be able to finalize their program next week. The traditional peak in sales of holiday packages for winter destinations is in October-November, she adds.

It seems that major players will be able to maintain sales volumes of winter holiday packages only to Egypt. According to Rostourism, the drop in departures to this country in the first half of the year was 13.8% - this is one of the lowest figures. For comparison: according to calculations by the Russian Union of Tourism Industry, the flow to EU countries decreased by 37%. According to Anna Podgornaya, the program to Egypt this year remained at the 2014 level. “In addition, plans for Vietnam have been slightly increased,” she adds. Tour operators, trying to find budget alternatives to increasingly expensive ski holidays, are also offering new destinations. According to travel agencies interviewed by Kommersant, this year companies have created package offers for Serbia. “We are launching this direction for the first time - ski tours, city tours to Belgrade, as well as their combinations,” TUI points out. This is the only visa-free European country for Russians with a fairly high level of service, notes Ms. Podgornaya.

Another winter trend, according to tour operators, may be a decrease in the growth of interest in domestic tourism. If in 2014 sales to Russian resorts increased by 20-30%, then in 2015 this figure will be about 15%, Ms. Lomidze suggests. According to the ATOR representative, the trend will continue in winter. The cost of vouchers on the domestic market has increased in proportion to inflation, by 10-15%, notes Ms. Lomidze. According to her forecasts, only the Krasnaya Polyana resorts in Sochi will be in unconditional demand this year.

Alexandra Mertsalova

Tour operators are flocking to the ruble