Wrong power

First of all, we need to change our view of the world. As long as we choose the government, focusing on the political slogans of the contenders, we will not get a government capable of solving the tasks set. It is time to call to account the people who infiltrated power with their own selfish goals.

Before turning to the pragmatism of numbers, I would like to recall the background of this cycle. It was based on my thoughts, which were caused by observations of the life of people in different territories. Human activity is determined by the basic settings of society, his personal perception of life, which is transformed into a social paradigm of thinking, but we are still all different, just like life itself, turning to us with its different facets.

A variety of assessments of what is happening is inevitable, and if we take into account the different temperament of mankind, its different types of emotional behavior, then we will definitely encounter different, sometimes completely opposite attitudes towards the same events taking place in the world. At first, I stated my own point of view, to some extent formed my attitude towards the participants in the events, but the further I moved, denoting my positions, the more I realized that I could not do without arguments expressed in numbers. I understand that certain facts that I will state on the basis of dry figures and statistical data in dynamics will still be interpreted through the prism of emotional perception. And yet, I would ask you to be patient, accept the assessment methods used by the world community, and only after that impose your personal feelings on the facts presented.

Through traditional approaches in economics, analysts seek to formulate life indicators that give us comparative characteristics, therefore, in my assessments of the state of the territories, I will also rely on those methods that are generally accepted and acceptable, including by our economists. Such an approach will take us as far as possible away from emotional assessments in the economy and bring us closer to the current reality. I will begin with a general assessment of the economic situation in our country, naturally, without falling into historical antiquity. I mean the events that took place beyond the last twenty-five years, and I used the term historical antiquity because the change of elites, the change of economic paradigms in Russia has been happening at such a speed lately that it makes no sense to compare the incomparable. Further, the indicators of the economy of our region will be correlated with the indicators of Russia, developed countries and developing countries, which will allow us to take a somewhat broader look at the ongoing processes of an economic and political nature.

We should probably start with traditional GDP per capita. Of course, this indicator alone does not give us a sufficient cross-section that allows us to see what is happening on the territory, but the fact that it belongs to the traditionally basic ones and gives us some estimated characteristics is obvious. In dynamics, this indicator makes it possible to assess the efficiency of the economy, including showing how correctly the movement vector is chosen. In this part, you need to learn one important truth. This indicator combines three main components: incomes of the population, incomes of enterprises and, as a result, the volume of fiscal taxes collected by state bodies, which should be used in the interests of society. All taken together determines the economic efficiency of the territory. It is from this point of view that I consider the current situation, I form the graphs presented to you, taking into account the dynamics of changes in previous periods of time. Let's start with those countries that have achieved the best results.

How much the American economy is a leader is shown on this graph without points, and where we are is also visible. Everyone can calculate for himself how many times we lag behind one or another country from the top seven, having made some efforts. Everyone can stretch their memory and remember what percentage per year we planned to grow. Using the simplest mathematical tools, we can easily calculate when the life lines of the studied economies will cross. At the same time, when making your calculations, do not forget to apply the real coefficients of change in GDP, inflation and other miscellaneous points, both for them and for us. You can forget about the previous chart and please your eye with others.

Feeling strong in an average environment is a view from the position of a C student, so I personally don’t like this angle of view. Regardless of the fact that some of these countries have slightly worse per capita indicators than ours, the following factor must be taken into account. The population of India and China, multiplied by their economic figures, in absolute terms, gives figures that you begin to treat with great respect. However, the gross product in dollar terms does not always reflect the real possibilities of the population, and indeed the economy as a whole. It makes sense to look at another cut that reflects the capabilities of the population living in the corresponding territory.

Consumer power parity (PPP) is a real indicator of the quality of life from an economic point of view. And here we were at the height, relative, of course, but we were. No need to remember in this part of the oligarchs and people living below the poverty line. The PPP calculation methodology is set up in such a way that it shows the current picture in relation to the bulk of the population. If you look at the dynamics of change, then in terms of the growth rate of this indicator, we were the best at certain stages of life. Yesterday we were in a worthy place, but today we are rolling down a steep slope. Why? Because our ability to consume was determined by the growth rate of wages and the volume of consumer loans, the return of which was ensured by our economy. Credit is a thing of the past, wages are frozen and ready to roll back down, the stocks of the population will rapidly dwindle - this is how things are today. If this situation continues for three or four years, then everyone, without exception, will feel the level of social tension with bare nerves. Why is there such a situation in which, depending on the influence of external factors, our economy is periodically visited by a fever? Maybe it has something to do with the income structure of the economy? Let's turn to the next chart and see it in the dynamics of the last quarter of a century.

With a sharp change in the social system in Russia, starting from the early nineties, in almost less than ten years, the country's economy, based on enterprises belonging to group A, was almost destroyed. We see on the graph that by the end of the nineties, the share of industry in GDP reached its smallest volume. Simultaneously with the decline in production in the structure of GDP, the share of services produced was growing.

But here's something to note as a reference. In developed countries, the share of services in the structure of exports ranges from 30 to 45%, while in some it is higher. In Russia's exports, this share is negligible, in our exports the share of the fuel and energy complex is more than 70%, the rest is the military-industrial complex and industry. The conclusion suggests itself. The share of industry in the export of products has fallen significantly, and we consume almost the entire volume of services ourselves in the domestic market, thereby stimulating the growth of PPP. Today's fall in the world market in the fuel and energy complex leads to a decrease in the profitability of our economy and leads to a decrease in the consumer opportunities of our citizens, the business class, as well as reduces the income opportunities at all levels of state budgets.

I happened to hear a strange statement by specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development at the Novosibirsk Technoprom-2015. On the basis of all the same statistical data, they called for strengthening work in the service sector, imitating developed countries and citing them as an example - both America and Germany. The strangeness of the statement was that the specialists representing such reputable institutions did not bother to analyze the century-old history, from which only a few countries have come to the leading economic positions. All of them, without exception, went through an evolutionary path of development of their mechanical engineering, and only much later, having developed their competencies in this area to a leading position, they began to place production in other territories, leaving the main know-how and engineering to themselves. Due to the fact that production enterprises located in other territories turned into simply production workshops, all added value remained in engineering centers. So, gradually, engineering services began to generate more income than the production itself.

Is it possible today to hope that we will develop something similar, while reasoning with theoretical slogans, without doing anything in practice? Absurd. Of course, we have quite interesting knowledge and skills in the field of military equipment production, so we have a little less than 30% of world sales in this market. We are still at a high level in the field of space technologies, therefore we speak with the world on an equal footing, and somewhere else with a condescending smile on our faces, therefore we have the opportunity to sell such services to the world and are leaders in this area. There are very few such examples in our economy, but these areas of activity almost do not concern the economy of our region.

There is a legitimate question. Where are we, the Novosibirsk Region, as an economic entity and how do we look against the backdrop of ongoing events? I did not compare our state with geopolitical and geo-economic trends due to simple circumstances. The sovereign policy of any, even the smallest, state can make significant adjustments to the economy of the territory, but we are built into the general domestic and foreign policy of our country, so comparisons must be made taking these realities into account. So, closer to our land, to our territory of residence.

Most likely, having already dealt with the previous material, comparing the figures of economic parameters, you saw on the chart I presented, the average indicators for Russia, saw the regions that are ahead of us in terms of economic indicators, and saw our place in this list.

If we talk about comparing the average weighted indicators of Russia and the Novosibirsk region over the past fifteen years in dynamics, then we are not among the leaders here, rather the opposite. The very structure of the region's economy does not cause great optimism, but in terms of production, things are getting worse in our country - this is only 18% of the total GRP.

Do we have nothing to develop and revive in the field of mechanical engineering? We do not have something to work on, we have an urgent need to restore mechanical engineering in a number of industries. For example, there are practically no enterprises in the power engineering industry beyond the Urals, but the equipment for generating electricity in Siberia and the Far East, in almost 10-15 years, will exhaust its entire park resource. At the same time, the country's leadership speaks of the need to develop at a faster pace, first of all, the regions of Russia located in the east. In this regard, the volume of necessary products of power engineering in the near future will be calculated in such a significant amount that, in my opinion, it is simply unacceptable to present this market.

The creation of a modern cluster of power engineering is not only necessary, without solving this problem, the production of electricity in the future, as well as thermal energy itself, seems to be very illusory. It is obvious that the creation of a cluster for the production of such equipment in Siberia will give development benefits both to the region that will do this and to the economy as a whole. Moreover, having calculated the volumes of equipment production, I am ready to assure that this type of cluster, created together with foreign engineers, under certain conditions, will give additional income to both them and our state.

What exactly can such a cluster give, for example, to the Novosibirsk region? I instructed one of our divisions to conduct such an analysis, superimposing the development scheme of the industrial cluster on the indicators of the region, taking into account the development dynamics planned by the administration for the medium term. Having made some adjustments to the model, we got planning up to the horizons of the long term.

The cluster project requires about the same amount of investment as the entire Novosibirsk region put together. The cluster includes about 25 enterprises producing main and auxiliary equipment. To make it easier to imagine what level these enterprises are, each of them can be compared with CHPP-5. Such a cluster employs about seventy thousand professionals in the field of mechanical engineering, not counting those service enterprises that are formed around the industrial cluster.

When our analysts, along with the mathematical modeling specialists, handed over the report to me, I was somewhat disappointed, because I expected much better results. Even if we launch such a project as the creation of a power engineering cluster, then in 30 years the region will reach only 30% of its capabilities, if we compare these parameters with world-class economies. In order to come close to European indicators in thirty years, we need to further increase the volume of investment in production.

The realization came of where we are and where they are, and how big the gap between us is. The conclusions that we received on the basis of our simulation made me think about what can still be done in order to change the situation. What else needs to be done besides what we already offer? Everything is really simple! More projects of this level are needed, and here's another example for you. The unique enterprise SKTB Katalizator is based in the region, which is the leader in the CIS in its field, but it does not supply even 10% of the products that our economy needs. All these products come from abroad and cost very, very decent money. The development of this area on the territory of the Novosibirsk region can lead to the fact that the region will become one of the leaders in these technologies not only in the CIS, this segment can be adequately represented by us on the world market. Already, this enterprise has been able to beat the Americans in their traditional market in Saudi Arabia, and this is a significant result.

Maybe someone thought about the development of this sector of the economy? No? And you should! We can start forming a cluster for the production of aluminum products, where everything in this segment in our country is almost at a zero level. Moreover, issues related to the program for the development of the Far North cannot be resolved without this cluster, but this topic is still closer to the Krasnoyarsk Territory. I have no doubt that each of the regions has its own characteristics, and each of them could form its own unique development program, but it is impossible to form such programs without professionals, which once again indicates the need to involve entrepreneurs in this work, in including from abroad. Why from abroad? One more fact should be noted.

If we look at the statistics regarding the borrowing of the seven, we will find some regularity. All countries of the seven, without exception, have incomparably higher borrowings into their economies than Russia, moreover, these borrowings do not frighten the economy.

For a more correct comparison, let's look at borrowing per capita and see that some changes have taken place on this graph, but they have not affected Russia, we still do not have money attracted to our economy. What we, Russia, have from the funds raised can be seen on the graphs. And what we can have in connection with the sanctions remains in question.

Someone may have a question, can we serve more borrowings? We can, the chart below tells us. But besides this question, a number of others may arise. Can we develop without attracting financial resources? No we can not. Can the attracted resources work effectively without attracting the leading technologies of foreign enterprises? No, the vast majority cannot. Can anyone other than the international entrepreneurial class, working alongside our entrepreneurs, create high-tech enterprises in our territory? This is the task of entrepreneurs only.

Are foreign entrepreneurs ready to come to us, taking part of the risks themselves, and why would they want to do this? I have big doubts that they will come without any significant guarantees of power. And finally, the main question. Who will formulate the agenda for today, who will be able to solve all these issues in a complex? Most likely, the one who sees the whole range of issues, who is able to take responsibility for their solution. Answers to these questions must be found. Otherwise, another way must be found, but which one? With pleasure I will be ready to listen, but it is better to read the reasoned positions on this matter.

We live in the current conditions, but each region, taking into account the realities of today, must develop its own development policy, on the one hand, relying on the opportunities that it has, on the other hand, not be limited to them, but use the entire set of tools that are available in world practice .

What do we have for today? If we talk about strategic development tasks that can significantly change the economy of the region, then such areas as reindustrialization and agglomeration are just additional tools. The couple of projects I propose are not just import substitution projects. Both projects, having closed the primary needs of their own economy, are export-oriented, but these are just two projects that could be considered as basic ones. I am sure that Novosibirsk, being a smart city, is capable of generating one and a half to two dozen similar projects that I mentioned.

What I think needs to be changed in the first place is our own view of the world. As long as we choose the government, focusing on the political slogans of the contenders, we will not get a government capable of solving the tasks set. It is time to learn how to make pragmatic decisions regarding candidates, evaluating their proposed programs for the development of the territory. If they cannot offer them, then they have nothing to do in power. It's time to learn how to evaluate the implementation of the programs they declare, and if they do not fulfill them, then recall such people from power and elect others. It's time to learn how to use their rights and call to account the people who infiltrated power with their own selfish goals. It's time to understand the main thing - no one is more interested in your own future than yourself, and no one will change this future instead of you. It's time to part with illusions and perceive the world as it really is.

PS In my calculations, I did not use the coefficients of today's exchange rate. The picture will be very sad. Moreover, it seems to me that today's course is inherently somewhat speculative, and I don't want to discuss who is playing what here now. With this text, I finish the next cycle and I won’t annoy anyone else for now.